Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2007
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Abstract The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, including 14 tropical storms and 1 subtropical storm. Of these, six became hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, Dean and Felix, which reached category 5 intensity (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). In addition, there were two unnamed tropical depressions. While the number of hurricanes in the basin was near the long-term mean, 2007 became the first year on record with two category 5 landfalls, with Hurricanes Dean and Felix inflicting severe damage on Mexico and Nicaragua, respectively. Dean was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin to make landfall in 15 yr, since Hurricane Andrew (1992). In total, eight systems made landfall in the basin during 2007, and the season’s tropical cyclones caused approximately 380 deaths. In the United States, one hurricane, one tropical storm, and three tropical depressions made landfall, resulting in 10 fatalities and about $50 million in damage.Keywords:
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The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season is described. There were eight tropical storms and 11 hurricanes for a total of 19 named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during 1995. This is the second-largest number of tropical storms and hurricanes in over 100 years of records. Thirteen named tropical cyclones affected land.
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Atmospheric and oceanic climate factors and conditions play a crucial role in modulating seasonal/annual tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin. In the following, correlations between North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity including frequency of occurrence and pathways are explored, with special emphasis on hurricanes. The value of two-dimensional and three-dimensional data sets representing climate patterns is investigated. Finally, the diagnostic study of historical tropical cyclone and hurricane temporal and spatial variability and relationships to climate factors lead to a statistical prognostic forecast, made in April, 2010, of the 2010 tropical cyclone and hurricane season. This forecast is tested both retrospectively and presently and is shown to be quite accurate. Knowing the probability of the frequency of occurrence, i.e. the numbers of named storms to form in general and the number of hurricanes (NHs) that are likely to form, is important for many societal sectors. However, the reliable forecasts of probable pathways of predicted events, specifically the likely NH land falls along the coastlines of the United States, should have great potential value to emergency planners, the insurance industry, and the public. The forecast provided in this study makes such a prognostication. As the 2010 hurricane season has progressed, an update of the goodness of the forecast is shown to be quite accurate in numbers of named events, hurricanes, major hurricanes (MHs), and landfalls. The mathematical and statistical methodology used in this study, which could be coupled to next generation "empirical modal decomposition," suggests that this may signal a new era in the future of tropical cyclone forecasting, including the reliable prognostication of numbers of events, intensities of events, and the pathways of those events. The ability to reliably predict the probability and location of land falls of these destructive events would be very powerful indeed.
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Abstract The 2004 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is reviewed. It was a below-average season in terms of number of systems and landfalls. There were 12 named tropical cyclones, of which 8 became hurricanes. None of the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall, and there were no reports of deaths or damage. A description of each cyclone is provided, and track and intensity forecasts for the season are evaluated.
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The 2013 season was forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (and many other seasonal forecast centers) to be much more active in terms of tropical cyclone activity than it turned out to be. The season was characterized by tropical cyclone activity that was well below normal and produced significantly fewer named storms than expected. This study investigates the reasons behind the poor forecast by analyzing the differences in the 2013 season compared to climatology from the previous 18 years (1995-2012), a very active Atlantic hurricane period associated with a multidecadal oscillation in the thermohaline circulation (Klotzbach & Gray, 2008).
Specifically, this study focuses in large part on the analysis of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which is used by NOAA to determine how “active” an individual tropical cyclone is throughout its life cycle, and how “active” a season is as a whole. ACE is calculated by using the formula ACE = 10-4Sv2 where v is the estimated sustained maximum wind speed measured in knots. This is calculated every six hours, typically at 0000, 0600,1200, and 1800 UTC. For this study, the 2013 tropical cyclone tracks were mapped using ArcGIS software and the ACE for all 2013 was calculated using data collected from NOAA. The Atlantic basin is then subdivided into three regions where tropical cyclones typically form throughout the season: East Atlantic (15°W-45°W), Mid-Atlantic (45°W-75°W) and Gulf of Mexico/Immediate Eastern U.S. Seaboard (75°W - 105°W). For each region, the total ACE for the 2013 season as well as the number of hurricane days is calculated. Then, the ACE values are calculated for each individual month (June-December). These values are compared with “typical” averages and analyzed. Additionally, the physical tracks of 2013 Atlantic tropical cyclones are analyzed and compared to those of a “typical” season using ArcGIS. This information quantifies the extent to which tropical cyclones in 2013 formed in anomalous locations or took anomalous paths compared to the 1995-2012 average.
It can be concluded from this study that the total ACE for 2013 was well below the average ACE value of a “typical” season. When analyzed by month, ACE for the Atlantic basin generally followed the expected climatology trend with a peak in September, but values were much smaller than climatology. It was found that 2013 ACE for the East Atlantic was about average and as expected, however ACE values from the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico/Immediate Eastern U.S. Seaboard were well below average. Climatology suggests that most tropical cyclone activity should be in the Mid-Atlantic region, but this was not the case for 2013 when most activity was located in the East Atlantic. Additionally, it was found that the number of hurricane days in 2013 was well below average, with the Mid-Atlantic region being particularly anomalous with no hurricane days in 2013.
This study will be a useful resource for meteorologists and climatologists to continue analyzing the 2013 season, and will serve as a basis for determining possible causes of the anomalous geographic distribution of tropical cyclone activity in 2013. The information herein will also be beneficial in observing long-term trends and improving seasonal outlooks in the future.
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Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
African easterly jet
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Atlantic hurricane
African easterly jet
Tropical Atlantic
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
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Abstract The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, including 14 tropical storms and 1 subtropical storm. Of these, six became hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, Dean and Felix, which reached category 5 intensity (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). In addition, there were two unnamed tropical depressions. While the number of hurricanes in the basin was near the long-term mean, 2007 became the first year on record with two category 5 landfalls, with Hurricanes Dean and Felix inflicting severe damage on Mexico and Nicaragua, respectively. Dean was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin to make landfall in 15 yr, since Hurricane Andrew (1992). In total, eight systems made landfall in the basin during 2007, and the season’s tropical cyclones caused approximately 380 deaths. In the United States, one hurricane, one tropical storm, and three tropical depressions made landfall, resulting in 10 fatalities and about $50 million in damage.
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The 1998 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is summarized, and the individual tropical storms and hurricanes are described. It was an active season with a large number of landfalls. There was a near-record number of tropical cyclone–related deaths, due almost entirely to Hurricane Mitch in Central America. Brief summaries of forecast verification and tropical wave activity during 1998 are also presented.
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The 1998 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is reviewed. There were 15 tropical cyclones, consisting of nine hurricanes, four tropical storms, and two tropical depressions. During 1998, two tropical cyclones made landfall; Hurricane Isis made two landfalls in Mexico while Tropical Depression Javier dissipated near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.
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Activity during the 2001 hurricane season was similar to that of the 2000 season. Fifteen tropical storms developed, with nine becoming hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Two tropical depressions failed to become tropical storms. Similarities to the 2000 season include overall activity much above climatological levels and most of the cyclones occurring over the open Atlantic north of 25°N. The overall "lateness" of the season was notable, with 11 named storms, including all the hurricanes, forming after 1 September. There were no hurricane landfalls in the United States for the second year in a row. However, the season's tropical cyclones were responsible for 93 deaths, including 41 from Tropical Storm Allison in the United States, and 48 from Hurricanes Iris and Michelle in the Caribbean.
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