Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1998
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The 1998 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is summarized, and the individual tropical storms and hurricanes are described. It was an active season with a large number of landfalls. There was a near-record number of tropical cyclone–related deaths, due almost entirely to Hurricane Mitch in Central America. Brief summaries of forecast verification and tropical wave activity during 1998 are also presented.Keywords:
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical cyclone scales
Atlantic hurricane
Madden–Julian oscillation
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical Atlantic
Tropical cyclone scales
African easterly jet
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Lindner, B.L.; Holden, W.; Neuhauser, A., and Evsich, R., 2020. Climatology of tropical cyclone strikes along the southeastern coastline of the United States. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(6), 1162–1177. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.It has been theorized that tropical cyclones originating in or passing through the Gulf of Mexico (hereafter referred to as GOM tropical cyclones) may significantly impact communities along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. To explore this hypothesis, site-specific climatologies were compiled using National Hurricane Center records of tropical cyclones that passed within 139 km of either Savannah, Georgia, or Wilmington, North Carolina, during the years 1851–2018. Return periods for tropical cyclones are longer for Savannah than for Wilmington, particularly for intense hurricanes. Intense GOM hurricanes are weakened by land interaction, which would result in longer return periods. A secondary maximum in the number of tropical storms early in hurricane season is more pronounced with proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, which is again consistent with the contribution from GOM tropical cyclones. Moreover, the percentage of tropical cyclones that passed near Savannah but did not make landfall is higher than that for Wilmington, again an indication of the significance of GOM tropical cyclones. Further evidence of the influence of GOM tropical cyclones is seen in the difference in approach angle and translational velocity between tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, translational velocities for tropical cyclones increase with latitude, and translational velocities for tropical cyclones near either Savannah or Wilmington increase as the hurricane season progresses. Both relationships are likely due to the interaction of tropical cyclones with synoptic and planetary-scale winds. The median date for tropical cyclones has shifted earlier in recent decades for both Savannah and Wilmington, which is potentially an indication of climate change. An improved understanding of the climatology of tropical cyclones could lead to enhanced city planning, building codes, infrastructure, and resource management.
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African easterly jet
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
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The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season is described. There were eight tropical storms and 11 hurricanes for a total of 19 named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during 1995. This is the second-largest number of tropical storms and hurricanes in over 100 years of records. Thirteen named tropical cyclones affected land.
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical Atlantic
African easterly jet
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The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and several recent publications have sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more intense, longer‐lived tropical cyclones. This paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone frequency and intensity to determine trends in activity over the past twenty years during which there has been an approximate 0.2°–0.4°C warming of SSTs. The data indicate a large increasing trend in tropical cyclone intensity and longevity for the North Atlantic basin and a considerable decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All other basins showed small trends, and there has been no significant change in global net tropical cyclone activity. There has been a small increase in global Category 4–5 hurricanes from the period 1986–1995 to the period 1996–2005. Most of this increase is likely due to improved observational technology. These findings indicate that other important factors govern intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones besides SSTs.
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
African easterly jet
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Atmospheric and oceanic climate factors and conditions play a crucial role in modulating seasonal/annual tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin. In the following, correlations between North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity including frequency of occurrence and pathways are explored, with special emphasis on hurricanes. The value of two-dimensional and three-dimensional data sets representing climate patterns is investigated. Finally, the diagnostic study of historical tropical cyclone and hurricane temporal and spatial variability and relationships to climate factors lead to a statistical prognostic forecast, made in April, 2010, of the 2010 tropical cyclone and hurricane season. This forecast is tested both retrospectively and presently and is shown to be quite accurate. Knowing the probability of the frequency of occurrence, i.e. the numbers of named storms to form in general and the number of hurricanes (NHs) that are likely to form, is important for many societal sectors. However, the reliable forecasts of probable pathways of predicted events, specifically the likely NH land falls along the coastlines of the United States, should have great potential value to emergency planners, the insurance industry, and the public. The forecast provided in this study makes such a prognostication. As the 2010 hurricane season has progressed, an update of the goodness of the forecast is shown to be quite accurate in numbers of named events, hurricanes, major hurricanes (MHs), and landfalls. The mathematical and statistical methodology used in this study, which could be coupled to next generation "empirical modal decomposition," suggests that this may signal a new era in the future of tropical cyclone forecasting, including the reliable prognostication of numbers of events, intensities of events, and the pathways of those events. The ability to reliably predict the probability and location of land falls of these destructive events would be very powerful indeed.
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The 2013 season was forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (and many other seasonal forecast centers) to be much more active in terms of tropical cyclone activity than it turned out to be. The season was characterized by tropical cyclone activity that was well below normal and produced significantly fewer named storms than expected. This study investigates the reasons behind the poor forecast by analyzing the differences in the 2013 season compared to climatology from the previous 18 years (1995-2012), a very active Atlantic hurricane period associated with a multidecadal oscillation in the thermohaline circulation (Klotzbach & Gray, 2008).
Specifically, this study focuses in large part on the analysis of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which is used by NOAA to determine how “active” an individual tropical cyclone is throughout its life cycle, and how “active” a season is as a whole. ACE is calculated by using the formula ACE = 10-4Sv2 where v is the estimated sustained maximum wind speed measured in knots. This is calculated every six hours, typically at 0000, 0600,1200, and 1800 UTC. For this study, the 2013 tropical cyclone tracks were mapped using ArcGIS software and the ACE for all 2013 was calculated using data collected from NOAA. The Atlantic basin is then subdivided into three regions where tropical cyclones typically form throughout the season: East Atlantic (15°W-45°W), Mid-Atlantic (45°W-75°W) and Gulf of Mexico/Immediate Eastern U.S. Seaboard (75°W - 105°W). For each region, the total ACE for the 2013 season as well as the number of hurricane days is calculated. Then, the ACE values are calculated for each individual month (June-December). These values are compared with “typical” averages and analyzed. Additionally, the physical tracks of 2013 Atlantic tropical cyclones are analyzed and compared to those of a “typical” season using ArcGIS. This information quantifies the extent to which tropical cyclones in 2013 formed in anomalous locations or took anomalous paths compared to the 1995-2012 average.
It can be concluded from this study that the total ACE for 2013 was well below the average ACE value of a “typical” season. When analyzed by month, ACE for the Atlantic basin generally followed the expected climatology trend with a peak in September, but values were much smaller than climatology. It was found that 2013 ACE for the East Atlantic was about average and as expected, however ACE values from the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico/Immediate Eastern U.S. Seaboard were well below average. Climatology suggests that most tropical cyclone activity should be in the Mid-Atlantic region, but this was not the case for 2013 when most activity was located in the East Atlantic. Additionally, it was found that the number of hurricane days in 2013 was well below average, with the Mid-Atlantic region being particularly anomalous with no hurricane days in 2013.
This study will be a useful resource for meteorologists and climatologists to continue analyzing the 2013 season, and will serve as a basis for determining possible causes of the anomalous geographic distribution of tropical cyclone activity in 2013. The information herein will also be beneficial in observing long-term trends and improving seasonal outlooks in the future.
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
African easterly jet
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Abstract Historical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a tropical cyclone downscaling model driven by three global climate analyses that are based mostly on sea surface temperature and surface pressure data. The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19 th century, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change. Most metrics of tropical cyclones downscaled over all the tropics show weak and/or insignificant trends over the last century, illustrating the special nature of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology.
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Tropical cyclogenesis
Atlantic hurricane
Madden–Julian oscillation
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical Atlantic
African easterly jet
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Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical cyclone scales
Maximum sustained wind
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical Atlantic
Longitude
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The assumption that tropical cyclones respond primarily to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) local to their main development regions underlies much of the concern regarding the possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone statistics. Here the observed relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone intensities in the Atlantic basin is explored. Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity fluctuations and storm numbers are shown to depend not only upon SST anomalies local to the Atlantic main development region, but also in a negative sense upon the tropical mean SST. This behavior is shown in part to be consistent with changes in the tropical cyclone potential intensity that provides an upper bound on storm intensity. However, Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity fluctuations are more nonlocal than the potential intensity itself and specifically vary along with Atlantic main development region SST anomalies relative to the tropical mean SST. This suggests that there is no straightforward link between warmer SSTs in the main development region and more intense tropical cyclones.
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclone scales
African easterly jet
Tropical Atlantic
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