Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Strikes along the Southeastern Coastline of the United States
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Lindner, B.L.; Holden, W.; Neuhauser, A., and Evsich, R., 2020. Climatology of tropical cyclone strikes along the southeastern coastline of the United States. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(6), 1162–1177. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.It has been theorized that tropical cyclones originating in or passing through the Gulf of Mexico (hereafter referred to as GOM tropical cyclones) may significantly impact communities along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. To explore this hypothesis, site-specific climatologies were compiled using National Hurricane Center records of tropical cyclones that passed within 139 km of either Savannah, Georgia, or Wilmington, North Carolina, during the years 1851–2018. Return periods for tropical cyclones are longer for Savannah than for Wilmington, particularly for intense hurricanes. Intense GOM hurricanes are weakened by land interaction, which would result in longer return periods. A secondary maximum in the number of tropical storms early in hurricane season is more pronounced with proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, which is again consistent with the contribution from GOM tropical cyclones. Moreover, the percentage of tropical cyclones that passed near Savannah but did not make landfall is higher than that for Wilmington, again an indication of the significance of GOM tropical cyclones. Further evidence of the influence of GOM tropical cyclones is seen in the difference in approach angle and translational velocity between tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, translational velocities for tropical cyclones increase with latitude, and translational velocities for tropical cyclones near either Savannah or Wilmington increase as the hurricane season progresses. Both relationships are likely due to the interaction of tropical cyclones with synoptic and planetary-scale winds. The median date for tropical cyclones has shifted earlier in recent decades for both Savannah and Wilmington, which is potentially an indication of climate change. An improved understanding of the climatology of tropical cyclones could lead to enhanced city planning, building codes, infrastructure, and resource management.Keywords:
Atlantic hurricane
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific.- Setting the Scene.- Tropical Cyclogenesis.- Tropical Cyclone Structure.- Tropical Cyclone Structure.- Meteorological Conditions.- Future Tropical Cyclone Activity.- Impacts of Tropical Cyclones.- Coastal Geomorphology.- Slope Stability and Mass Movements.- River Hydrology and Floods.- Fluvial Geomorphology.
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclone scales
Cyclogenesis
African easterly jet
Typhoon
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The climatically character of wind vectors at 100 hPa and 850 hPa level and the relationship between the tropical easterly current at the 100 hPa level and tropical cyclone numbers in low and high frequency years were analyzed by using the data of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the tropical cyclone data from JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center) over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea during the period 1958-1998.The result shows that a high positive correlation between tropical easterly current and the number of tropical cyclone is found in the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal.However,such a positive correlation is not found in South China Sea.Because South China Sea is at the southeast of South Asia high,the domination of meridional wind makes the relationship between tropical cyclone numbers and the merridional wind at the 100 hPa level is higher than it between tropical cyclone numbers and tropical easterly.
Typhoon
African easterly jet
BENGAL
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
Atlantic hurricane
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A total of 69 tropical waves (also known as African and easterly waves) were counted in the Atlantic basin during the 1992 hurricane season. As was the case in 1991, the waves were, in general, relatively weak. These waves led to the formation of only four tropical depressions in the Atlantic hurricane basin, of which one intensified into a tropical storm and another intensified into Hurricane Andrew. Andrew was the only 1992 Atlantic hurricane to originate from a tropical wave. There were five additional tropical depressions that were primarily initiated by systems of nontropical origin. These produced three hurricanes and one tropical storm. It appears that tropical waves led to the formation of practically all of the eastern Pacific tropical cyclones in 1992.
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African easterly jet
Tropical Atlantic
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclone scales
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Based on the data of tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean from 1977 to 2008 from JTWC,the monthly SST and daily HGT from NOAA,and the global reanalysis data from 1982 to 2008 from NCEP,the double peak character of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean is analyzed.The results show that:(1) the position of flow field in the 500 hPa Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) well explained seasonal changes of tropical cyclone,as well as the seasonally changes of South Asia High in the 500 hPa according to the changes of tropical cyclone;(2) the seasonal variation of SST and the outbreak of the Monsoon show their impacts on occurring frequency of tropical cyclone,which means that high SST and weak vertical wind shear were in favor of the tropical cyclone frequency;(3)When the Monsoon broke out,the strong wind vertical shear was not conducive to the formation of tropical cyclone.Considering all the factors of above,they are the factors that led to the double peak structure of the tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean.
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclone scales
Intertropical Convergence Zone
Monsoon trough
Convergence zone
Typhoon
Maximum sustained wind
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Abstract This study investigates the number of tropical cyclone formations that can be attributed to the enhanced convection from equatorial waves within each basin. Tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances (i.e., easterly waves) were the primary tropical cyclone precursors over the Northern Hemisphere basins, particularly the eastern North Pacific and the Atlantic. In the Southern Hemisphere, however, the number of storms attributed to TD-type disturbances and equatorial Rossby waves were roughly equivalent. Equatorward of 20°N, tropical cyclones formed without any equatorial wave precursor most often over the eastern North Pacific and least often over the western North Pacific. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was an important tropical cyclone precursor over the north Indian, south Indian, and western North Pacific basins. The MJO also affected tropical cyclogenesis by modulating the amplitudes of higher-frequency waves. Each wave type reached the attribution threshold 1.5 times more often, and tropical cyclogenesis was 3 times more likely, within positive MJO-filtered rainfall anomalies than within negative anomalies. The greatest MJO modulation was observed for storms attributed to Kelvin waves over the north Indian Ocean. The large rainfall rates associated with tropical cyclones can alter equatorial wave–filtered anomalies. This study quantifies the contamination over each basin. Tropical cyclones contributed more than 20% of the filtered variance for each wave type over large potions of every basin except the South Pacific. The largest contamination, exceeding 60%, occurred for the TD band near the Philippines. To mitigate the contamination, the tropical cyclone–related anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.
Tropical cyclogenesis
African easterly jet
Madden–Julian oscillation
Cyclogenesis
Equatorial waves
Tropical cyclone scales
Atlantic hurricane
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Interaction of tropical cyclone and South China Sea(SCS) summer monsoon,especially the mechanism for intensification of low level jet over SCS caused by tropical cyclone landfall,is discussed base on case study and statistical analysis.In case study,different sets of numerical experiments during the landfall of tropical storm BILIS(0604) are carried out using mesoscale model MM5.Result shows that the moist southwestly summer monsoon retarded the decay of tropical cyclone and enhanced the rainfall.On the other hand,the backward reaction from tropical cyclone to low level jet over SCS cannot be ignored.Mesoscale convection systems accompanied with tropical cyclone landfall would enhance the pressure gradient force in low atmosphere over SCS,which would lead to intensification of the low level jet in summer monsoon.Statistical analysis of 30 tropical cyclones with similar track as BILIS dating from 1950 to 2009 also shows that 80% tropical cyclone activities accompany with positive low level wind speed anomaly in SCS.
Tropical cyclogenesis
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclone scales
Mesoscale convective system
Rainband
MM5
Extratropical cyclone
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The interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and zonal wind speed in the African easterly jet (AEJ) is analyzed and discussed in the context of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. It is found that hurricane and tropical storm totals in the Atlantic basin are closely related to the African meridional OLR contrast (AMOC). It is suggested that the AMOC provides a simple yet novel way to simultaneously characterize the meridional temperature gradient and ITCZ activity, both of which play integral roles in generating African easterly waves. Complimentary to observed relationships between Sahel rainfall and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, the potential for the AMOC to augment existing techniques used in preparing Atlantic hurricane season outlooks is also discussed.
African easterly jet
Atlantic hurricane
Intertropical Convergence Zone
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical Atlantic
Tropical cyclone scales
Predictability
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Abstract Using a regional model initial condition ensemble, this study quantifies the magnitude of internal variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency for a case study year and identifies potential physical sources. For tropical cyclone formations from easterly waves, the simulated internal variability of tropical cyclone frequency for 1998 is approximately two fifths of the total (externally forced and internal) variability of observed tropical cyclone frequency. The simulated internal variability of tropical cyclone frequency is found to arise in approximately equal measure from variability of easterly wave occurrence and development and variability of the transition from incipient warm cores to tropical cyclones. Variable interaction between developing tropical cyclones and vertical wind shear associated with upper level cyclones is identified as a potentially important contributing factor to tropical cyclone internal variability.
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical Atlantic
Atlantic hurricane
Cyclogenesis
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The assumption that tropical cyclones respond primarily to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) local to their main development regions underlies much of the concern regarding the possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone statistics. Here the observed relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone intensities in the Atlantic basin is explored. Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity fluctuations and storm numbers are shown to depend not only upon SST anomalies local to the Atlantic main development region, but also in a negative sense upon the tropical mean SST. This behavior is shown in part to be consistent with changes in the tropical cyclone potential intensity that provides an upper bound on storm intensity. However, Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity fluctuations are more nonlocal than the potential intensity itself and specifically vary along with Atlantic main development region SST anomalies relative to the tropical mean SST. This suggests that there is no straightforward link between warmer SSTs in the main development region and more intense tropical cyclones.
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclone scales
African easterly jet
Tropical Atlantic
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