Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 1998
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Abstract:
The 1998 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is reviewed. There were 15 tropical cyclones, consisting of nine hurricanes, four tropical storms, and two tropical depressions. During 1998, two tropical cyclones made landfall; Hurricane Isis made two landfalls in Mexico while Tropical Depression Javier dissipated near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.Keywords:
Atlantic hurricane
Landfall
Tropical cyclone scales
African easterly jet
Lindner, B.L.; Holden, W.; Neuhauser, A., and Evsich, R., 2020. Climatology of tropical cyclone strikes along the southeastern coastline of the United States. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(6), 1162–1177. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.It has been theorized that tropical cyclones originating in or passing through the Gulf of Mexico (hereafter referred to as GOM tropical cyclones) may significantly impact communities along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. To explore this hypothesis, site-specific climatologies were compiled using National Hurricane Center records of tropical cyclones that passed within 139 km of either Savannah, Georgia, or Wilmington, North Carolina, during the years 1851–2018. Return periods for tropical cyclones are longer for Savannah than for Wilmington, particularly for intense hurricanes. Intense GOM hurricanes are weakened by land interaction, which would result in longer return periods. A secondary maximum in the number of tropical storms early in hurricane season is more pronounced with proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, which is again consistent with the contribution from GOM tropical cyclones. Moreover, the percentage of tropical cyclones that passed near Savannah but did not make landfall is higher than that for Wilmington, again an indication of the significance of GOM tropical cyclones. Further evidence of the influence of GOM tropical cyclones is seen in the difference in approach angle and translational velocity between tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, translational velocities for tropical cyclones increase with latitude, and translational velocities for tropical cyclones near either Savannah or Wilmington increase as the hurricane season progresses. Both relationships are likely due to the interaction of tropical cyclones with synoptic and planetary-scale winds. The median date for tropical cyclones has shifted earlier in recent decades for both Savannah and Wilmington, which is potentially an indication of climate change. An improved understanding of the climatology of tropical cyclones could lead to enhanced city planning, building codes, infrastructure, and resource management.
Atlantic hurricane
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
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Abstract The automatic tracking technique used by Thorncroft and Hodges has been used to identify coherent vorticity structures at 850 hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis. The presence of two dominant source regions, north and south of 15°N over West Africa, for storm tracks over the Atlantic was confirmed. Results show that the southern storm track provides most of the storms that reach the main development region where most tropical cyclones develop. There exists marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of the storms leaving the West African coast, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity. There exists considerable year-to-year variability in the number of West African storm tracks, both in numbers over the land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall, and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated with these. In contrast, variance of the 2–6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of African easterly wave activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with tropical cyclone activity at interannual time scales.
African easterly jet
Atlantic hurricane
Extratropical cyclone
Tropical Atlantic
Cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclone scales
Storm track
Tropical cyclogenesis
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The tropical cyclone rainfall climatological study performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during an 11-yr period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during June–November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5°–10° poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15°N, 55°W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and nontropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, whereas in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.
African easterly jet
Tropical Atlantic
Tropical cyclone scales
Atlantic hurricane
Longitude
Tropical cyclogenesis
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The 1991 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin featured 73 tropical waves (also known as African waves), most of which were relatively weak. These waves generated fewer than normal Atlantic tropical cyclones: seven tropical depressions, of which only three intensified into tropical storms. Remarkably, none of these systems became hurricanes. The remainder of the Atlantic tropical cyclones formed from other sources. African waves triggered nearly all of the eastern Pacific tropical cyclones in 1991.
Atlantic hurricane
African easterly jet
Tropical Atlantic
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
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Abstract During summer 2018/2019, Mozambique was devastated by Idai and Kenneth, the first time two Intense Status tropical cyclones have ever made landfall here. The season broke numerous records for the Southwest Indian Ocean (the greatest deaths, the largest damage, and numbers of Intense Status cyclones and tropical storms). Kenneth, which is the strongest cyclone ever to make landfall in Mozambique, did so unusually late in the season, had an unusual due westward track and struck the coast far further north than previously, is examined. Changes in Kenneth's strength (21–25 April 2019) across the extreme northern Mozambique Channel are shown to be related to two cyclonic/anticyclonic eddy pairs in the ocean. These eddies led to changes in SST, enthalpy fluxes, tropical cyclone heat potential, and upper ocean heat content that influenced its rapid strengthening from moderate tropical storm to Very Intense tropical cyclone status and then back to Intense Status just before landfall.
Tropical cyclone scales
Landfall
African easterly jet
Anticyclone
Atlantic hurricane
Storm track
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Abstract China is part of the western Pacific region, which is the source of the most frequent tropical cyclones in the world. These cause severe disasters each year, including huge economic losses and casualties. To better understand their frequency and intensity, remote sensing tropical cyclone data were obtained for the entire Northwest Pacific region for the period 1977–2018. MATLAB and ArcGIS were used to analyse the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and their landfall characteristics in various regions of China. The annual frequency of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific showed a trend of fluctuating and decreasing. In particular, since 1994, the overall frequency decreased significantly but rebounded in recent years, while the intensity did not change significantly. It was found that cyclone intensity is lower when the frequency is higher, and vice versa. Some 85% of tropical cyclones occurred in summer and autumn, with the highest intensities in autumn, when the maximum average wind speed peaked at 37 m/s. The area with the most frequent tropical cyclones was 5–20° N, 125–155 °E. A total of 314 tropical cyclones made landfall in China, an annual average of about 7.5. Their frequency and intensity gradually decreased as they moved from coastal to inland areas. Both sea surface temperature and El Niño were significantly related to tropical cyclones. This study’s analyses of the distribution, intensity and landfall characteristics of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones will help to predict the frequency of disasters and provide a basis for disaster prevention work.
Landfall
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclone scales
Typhoon
Intensity
Atlantic hurricane
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Interaction of tropical cyclone and South China Sea(SCS) summer monsoon,especially the mechanism for intensification of low level jet over SCS caused by tropical cyclone landfall,is discussed base on case study and statistical analysis.In case study,different sets of numerical experiments during the landfall of tropical storm BILIS(0604) are carried out using mesoscale model MM5.Result shows that the moist southwestly summer monsoon retarded the decay of tropical cyclone and enhanced the rainfall.On the other hand,the backward reaction from tropical cyclone to low level jet over SCS cannot be ignored.Mesoscale convection systems accompanied with tropical cyclone landfall would enhance the pressure gradient force in low atmosphere over SCS,which would lead to intensification of the low level jet in summer monsoon.Statistical analysis of 30 tropical cyclones with similar track as BILIS dating from 1950 to 2009 also shows that 80% tropical cyclone activities accompany with positive low level wind speed anomaly in SCS.
Tropical cyclogenesis
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclone scales
Mesoscale convective system
Rainband
MM5
Extratropical cyclone
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The interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and zonal wind speed in the African easterly jet (AEJ) is analyzed and discussed in the context of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. It is found that hurricane and tropical storm totals in the Atlantic basin are closely related to the African meridional OLR contrast (AMOC). It is suggested that the AMOC provides a simple yet novel way to simultaneously characterize the meridional temperature gradient and ITCZ activity, both of which play integral roles in generating African easterly waves. Complimentary to observed relationships between Sahel rainfall and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, the potential for the AMOC to augment existing techniques used in preparing Atlantic hurricane season outlooks is also discussed.
African easterly jet
Atlantic hurricane
Intertropical Convergence Zone
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical Atlantic
Tropical cyclone scales
Predictability
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Abstract Using a regional model initial condition ensemble, this study quantifies the magnitude of internal variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency for a case study year and identifies potential physical sources. For tropical cyclone formations from easterly waves, the simulated internal variability of tropical cyclone frequency for 1998 is approximately two fifths of the total (externally forced and internal) variability of observed tropical cyclone frequency. The simulated internal variability of tropical cyclone frequency is found to arise in approximately equal measure from variability of easterly wave occurrence and development and variability of the transition from incipient warm cores to tropical cyclones. Variable interaction between developing tropical cyclones and vertical wind shear associated with upper level cyclones is identified as a potentially important contributing factor to tropical cyclone internal variability.
African easterly jet
Tropical cyclogenesis
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical Atlantic
Atlantic hurricane
Cyclogenesis
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The 1998 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is reviewed. There were 15 tropical cyclones, consisting of nine hurricanes, four tropical storms, and two tropical depressions. During 1998, two tropical cyclones made landfall; Hurricane Isis made two landfalls in Mexico while Tropical Depression Javier dissipated near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.
Atlantic hurricane
Landfall
Tropical cyclone scales
African easterly jet
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Citations (11)