THE BIRTHPLACE OF NORTH ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS
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Abstract:
Newly adjusted tracks of North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms for 72 years provide a consistent set of data for examining the birthplaces of these storms. For 59 years (1899–1957) of the record, portions of the adjusted storm tracks from the point of origin of first closed circulation to the point of first hurricane intensity are presented. The origins show a regular seasonal shift eastward and later westward across an area east of the Lesser Antilles. The location of the seasonal maximum of origins in this area is thus explained. The data support Mitchell's conclusion that the eastern Caribbean is not a birthplace of tropical storms. The results are discussed in relation to the available observational network in the hurricane breeding grounds.Keywords:
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical Atlantic
The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season is described. There were eight tropical storms and 11 hurricanes for a total of 19 named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during 1995. This is the second-largest number of tropical storms and hurricanes in over 100 years of records. Thirteen named tropical cyclones affected land.
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Abstract The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season was a destructive season with hurricanes Florence and Michael causing significant damage in the southeastern United States. In keeping with most destructive hurricane seasons, basinwide tropical cyclone activity was above average in 2018—by ~25% for named storm numbers, hurricane numbers, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). In contrast to this above‐normal activity, the August–September tropical environmental fields that explain ~50% of the variance in Atlantic basin hurricane activity between 1950 and 2017 anticipated a well below‐average 2018 hurricane season. The surprisingly large mismatch between the observed and replicated levels of hurricane activity in 2018 is an extreme example of the uncertainty inherent in seasonal hurricane outlooks and highlights the need for these outlooks to be issued in terms of probability of exceedance. Such probabilistic information would better clarify the uncertainty associated with hurricane outlooks to the benefit of users. With retrospective knowledge of the August–September 2018 key tropical environmental fields, the chance that the observed 2018 Atlantic hurricane activity would occur is about 5%. The reasons for the surprisingly high hurricane activity in 2018 are a hurricane outbreak in early September and, in particular, the occurrence of unusually high tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical North Atlantic. The hyperactive subtropical activity was not anticipated because contemporary statistical models of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity lack skill in anticipating subtropical ACE compared to tropical ACE.
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The 1991 hurricane season produced 76 tropical waves of which 12 became tropical depressions. African seedlings initiated 10 of the 14 named Atlantic storms and all of the eastern Pacific tropical cyclones. A comparison with previous years is presented.
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Abstract The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, including 14 tropical storms and 1 subtropical storm. Of these, six became hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, Dean and Felix, which reached category 5 intensity (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). In addition, there were two unnamed tropical depressions. While the number of hurricanes in the basin was near the long-term mean, 2007 became the first year on record with two category 5 landfalls, with Hurricanes Dean and Felix inflicting severe damage on Mexico and Nicaragua, respectively. Dean was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin to make landfall in 15 yr, since Hurricane Andrew (1992). In total, eight systems made landfall in the basin during 2007, and the season’s tropical cyclones caused approximately 380 deaths. In the United States, one hurricane, one tropical storm, and three tropical depressions made landfall, resulting in 10 fatalities and about $50 million in damage.
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