Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature
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We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally predicting the number of US landfalling hurricanes based on the prediction of the number of basin hurricanes. We have described a number of SST prediction methods in previous work. We now investigate the empirical relationship between SST and basin hurricane numbers, and put this together with the SST predictions to make predictions of both basin and landfalling hurricane numbers.Keywords:
Atlantic hurricane
Abstract The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season was a destructive season with hurricanes Florence and Michael causing significant damage in the southeastern United States. In keeping with most destructive hurricane seasons, basinwide tropical cyclone activity was above average in 2018—by ~25% for named storm numbers, hurricane numbers, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). In contrast to this above‐normal activity, the August–September tropical environmental fields that explain ~50% of the variance in Atlantic basin hurricane activity between 1950 and 2017 anticipated a well below‐average 2018 hurricane season. The surprisingly large mismatch between the observed and replicated levels of hurricane activity in 2018 is an extreme example of the uncertainty inherent in seasonal hurricane outlooks and highlights the need for these outlooks to be issued in terms of probability of exceedance. Such probabilistic information would better clarify the uncertainty associated with hurricane outlooks to the benefit of users. With retrospective knowledge of the August–September 2018 key tropical environmental fields, the chance that the observed 2018 Atlantic hurricane activity would occur is about 5%. The reasons for the surprisingly high hurricane activity in 2018 are a hurricane outbreak in early September and, in particular, the occurrence of unusually high tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical North Atlantic. The hyperactive subtropical activity was not anticipated because contemporary statistical models of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity lack skill in anticipating subtropical ACE compared to tropical ACE.
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The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season is described. There were eight tropical storms and 11 hurricanes for a total of 19 named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during 1995. This is the second-largest number of tropical storms and hurricanes in over 100 years of records. Thirteen named tropical cyclones affected land.
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The 2004 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season was one of the most active and destructive on record. A total of fourteen named tropical cyclones (sustained winds >= 39 mph), nine hurricanes (sustained winds >= 74 mph), and six intense or major hurricanes (sustained winds >= 111 mph) developed during the season. These six major hurricanes lasted for 22.25 days, which is the most major hurricane days since the 1926 season. The primary reason that the 2004 season will be remembered is the intense destruction that the season caused along the Southeast United States coastline. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and
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The 1994 Atlantic hurricane season had only three hurricanes forming from just seven tropical storms. Several of these tropical cyclones, however, caused loss of life and great damage. Gordon, as a tropical storm, produced floods that killed more than 1100 people in Haiti. Alberto, Beryl, and Gordon hit the United States, causing 38 deaths and nearly $1 billion in damage over the southeastern states.
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Abstract The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, including 14 tropical storms and 1 subtropical storm. Of these, six became hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, Dean and Felix, which reached category 5 intensity (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). In addition, there were two unnamed tropical depressions. While the number of hurricanes in the basin was near the long-term mean, 2007 became the first year on record with two category 5 landfalls, with Hurricanes Dean and Felix inflicting severe damage on Mexico and Nicaragua, respectively. Dean was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin to make landfall in 15 yr, since Hurricane Andrew (1992). In total, eight systems made landfall in the basin during 2007, and the season’s tropical cyclones caused approximately 380 deaths. In the United States, one hurricane, one tropical storm, and three tropical depressions made landfall, resulting in 10 fatalities and about $50 million in damage.
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A total of 69 tropical waves (also known as African and easterly waves) were counted in the Atlantic basin during the 1992 hurricane season. As was the case in 1991, the waves were, in general, relatively weak. These waves led to the formation of only four tropical depressions in the Atlantic hurricane basin, of which one intensified into a tropical storm and another intensified into Hurricane Andrew. Andrew was the only 1992 Atlantic hurricane to originate from a tropical wave. There were five additional tropical depressions that were primarily initiated by systems of nontropical origin. These produced three hurricanes and one tropical storm. It appears that tropical waves led to the formation of practically all of the eastern Pacific tropical cyclones in 1992.
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The 1998 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is summarized, and the individual tropical storms and hurricanes are described. It was an active season with a large number of landfalls. There was a near-record number of tropical cyclone–related deaths, due almost entirely to Hurricane Mitch in Central America. Brief summaries of forecast verification and tropical wave activity during 1998 are also presented.
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The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season was marked by above-average tropical cyclone activity with the formation of 19 tropical storms, of which seven became hurricanes (see Figure 1 and Table 1. The nu...
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Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the 2015 season was below average. Of the 11 tropical storms that formed, four became hurricanes, and two reached major hurricane strength (ca...
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