Analysis of the Positive Arctic Oscillation Index Event and Its Influence in the Winter and Spring of 2019/2020
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There were continuous positive Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) and large-scale weather and climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter and spring of 2019/2020, and the relationship between these anomalies is an important issue for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability. This study shows that an AOI event with splitting characteristics occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and that there was a gap between the periods in event, which has not been observed in any of the 12 previous positive AOI events. The 3 stages of upward propagating planetary wave (UPPW) variation caused the gap between the periods. First, in early November, the westerly flow from the troposphere to the stratosphere weakened, resulting in persistent weak UPPWs that allowed a strong polar vortex to form. Then, the two strong UPPWs in January and early February caused the original westerlies to decelerate and induced warming in the lower stratosphere. However, the UPPWs caused only moderate changes in the geopotential height and temperature due to the strong polar vortex that had formed in the previous stage. This moderate AOI decline resulted in the conditions that divided the positive event into two periods. Finally, the low-level westerlies became stronger and strengthened the UPPWs into the stable stratosphere, which ended the second positive AOI period in late March. The role of zonal circulation anomalies (ZCA) in the upper stratosphere as metrics of and intermediates in UPPW-AO interactions is revealed in this study. The typical ZCA development mode was identified by statistical analysis and a composite treatment based on eight historical positive AOI events. In this mode, when strong UPPWs occur and lead to the consequent propagation of the ZCA from the stratosphere to the troposphere, the geopotential height field in the lower troposphere changes away from a typical AO mode; eventually, the AOI becomes abnormal. The temperature anomaly and ZCA produced in the two positive AOI periods during the winter and spring of 2019/2020 led to increasing precipitation in the eastern polar region, northern Asia, and areas along 60°N latitude.Keywords:
Westerlies
Geopotential height
Arctic oscillation
Predictability
Polar night
There were continuous positive Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) and large-scale weather and climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter and spring of 2019/2020, and the relationship between these anomalies is an important issue for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability. This study shows that an AOI event with splitting characteristics occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and that there was a gap between the periods in event, which has not been observed in any of the 12 previous positive AOI events. The 3 stages of upward propagating planetary wave (UPPW) variation caused the gap between the periods. First, in early November, the westerly flow from the troposphere to the stratosphere weakened, resulting in persistent weak UPPWs that allowed a strong polar vortex to form. Then, the two strong UPPWs in January and early February caused the original westerlies to decelerate and induced warming in the lower stratosphere. However, the UPPWs caused only moderate changes in the geopotential height and temperature due to the strong polar vortex that had formed in the previous stage. This moderate AOI decline resulted in the conditions that divided the positive event into two periods. Finally, the low-level westerlies became stronger and strengthened the UPPWs into the stable stratosphere, which ended the second positive AOI period in late March. The role of zonal circulation anomalies (ZCA) in the upper stratosphere as metrics of and intermediates in UPPW-AO interactions is revealed in this study. The typical ZCA development mode was identified by statistical analysis and a composite treatment based on eight historical positive AOI events. In this mode, when strong UPPWs occur and lead to the consequent propagation of the ZCA from the stratosphere to the troposphere, the geopotential height field in the lower troposphere changes away from a typical AO mode; eventually, the AOI becomes abnormal. The temperature anomaly and ZCA produced in the two positive AOI periods during the winter and spring of 2019/2020 led to increasing precipitation in the eastern polar region, northern Asia, and areas along 60°N latitude.
Westerlies
Geopotential height
Arctic oscillation
Predictability
Polar night
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The signal of the Southern Oscillation in the lower half of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere in winter appears to be as follows: In the extreme of the Southern Oscillation when the trade winds are comparatively weak in the South Pacific Ocean, stratospheric geopotential heights and temperatures tend to be higher over the Arctic and lower in middle latitudes than in the opposite extreme. At the same time, the polar-night stratospheric jetstream tends to be weaker and the subtropical westerlies to be stronger. The conclusions are based on 11 extremes within a 15-year period and on data at standard pressure levels as high as 10 mb.
Westerlies
Geopotential height
Quasi-biennial oscillation
Arctic oscillation
Middle latitudes
Polar night
Oscillation (cell signaling)
Sudden stratospheric warming
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Abstract A novel diagnostic tool is presented, based on polar-cap temperature anomalies, for visualizing daily variability of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex over multiple decades. This visualization illustrates the ubiquity of extended-time-scale recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. These are characterized by an anomalously warm polar lower stratosphere that persists for several months. Following the initial warming, a cold anomaly forms in the middle stratosphere, as does an anomalously high stratopause, both of which descend while the lower-stratospheric anomaly persists. These events are characterized in four datasets: Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) temperature observations; the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses; and an ensemble of three 150-yr simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. The statistics of PJO events in the model are found to agree very closely with those of the observations and reanalyses. The time scale for the recovery of the polar vortex following sudden warmings correlates strongly with the depth to which the warming initially descends. PJO events occur following roughly half of all major sudden warmings and are associated with an extended period of suppressed wave-activity fluxes entering the polar vortex. They follow vortex splits more frequently than they do vortex displacements. They are also related to weak vortex events as identified by the northern annular mode; in particular, those weak vortex events followed by a PJO event show a stronger tropospheric response. The long time scales, predominantly radiative dynamics, and tropospheric influence of PJO events suggest that they represent an important source of conditional skill in seasonal forecasting.
Sudden stratospheric warming
Polar night
Arctic oscillation
Stratopause
Anomaly (physics)
Geopotential height
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Westerlies
Geopotential height
Trough (economics)
Subtropical ridge
Geopotential
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A set of circulation indices are defined and calculated to characterize monthly mean polar vortex at 10 hPa geopotential height chart in the Northern Hemisphere, including area-(S), intensity-(P) and center position (λc, φc)-indices by use of 1948-2007 NCEP/NCAR 10 hPa monthly height data. These indices series are used to investigate the seasonal variation and interannual anomaly of polar vortex, along with the relations with global warming, ozone anomaly and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The results show that (1) there is anticyclonic (cyclonic) from Jun. to Aug. (from Sep. to Mar.). The change of spring circulation pattern is slower than that of autumn. (2) S can be replaced by P due to the interannual synchronal variations of the intensity and area for polar vortex. The interannual (interdecadal) variations of P are significant in Jan. (Jul.). (3) The anomalies of system center position in Jan. are more evident than that in Jul. (4) The variations of mean temperature at mid-stratosphere in the vicinity of pole zone in Jan. are different from that in Jul., but they are synchronal with the corresponding P and not significant correlation with the trend of global warming. However, the relationship between P and total O3 in Jul. are obvious. (5) There is so notable correlation between P and AO that P can represent AO.
Geopotential height
Anticyclone
Arctic oscillation
Anomaly (physics)
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Abstract Decadal trends are compared in various fields between Northern Hemisphere early winter, November–December (ND), and late-winter, February–March (FM), months using reanalysis data. It is found that in the extratropics and polar region the decadal trends display nearly opposite tendencies between ND and FM during the period from 1979 to 2003. Dynamical trends in late winter (FM) reveal that the polar vortex has become stronger and much colder and wave fluxes from the troposphere to the stratosphere are weaker, consistent with the positive trend of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as found in earlier studies, while trends in ND appear to resemble a trend toward the low-index polarity of the AO. In the Tropics, the Hadley circulation shows significant intensification in both ND and FM, with stronger intensification in FM. Unlike the Hadley cell, the Ferrel cell shows opposite trends between ND and FM, with weakening in ND and strengthening in FM. Comparison of the observational results with general circulation model simulations is also discussed.
Arctic oscillation
Hadley cell
Atmospheric Circulation
Polar night
Quasi-biennial oscillation
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Citations (63)