Improving Parametric Cyclonic Wind Fields Using Recent Satellite Remote Sensing Data
Yann KrienGaël ArnaudRaphaël CécéJamal KhanA MadaniDidier BernardA. K. M. Saiful IslamFabien DurandLaurent TestutPhilippe PalanyNarcisse Zahibo
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Abstract:
Parametric cyclonic wind fields are widely used worldwide for insurance risk underwriting, coastal planning, or storm surge forecasts. They support high-stakes financial, development, and emergency decisions. Yet, there is still no consensus on the best parametric approach, or relevant guidance to choose among the great variety of published models. The aim of this paper is first and foremost to demonstrate that recent progresses on estimating extreme surface wind speeds from satellite remote sensing now makes it possible to select the best option with greater objectivity. In particular, we show that the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission of NASA is able to capture a substantial part of the tropical cyclones structure, and allows identifying systematic biases in a number of parametric models. Our results also suggest that none of the traditional empirical approaches can be considered as the best option in all cases. Rather, the choice of a parametric model depends on several criteria such as cyclone intensity and/or availability of wind radii information. The benefit of using satellite remote sensing data to better select a parametric model for a specific case study is tested here by simulating hurricane Maria (2017). The significant wave heights computed by a wave-current hydrodynamic coupled model are found to be in good accordance with the predictions given by the remote sensing data in terms of bias. The results and approach presented in this study should shed new light on how to handle parametric cyclonic wind models, and help the scientific community to conduct better wind, waves and surge analysis for tropical cyclones.Keywords:
Storm Surge
For the purpose of developing a simplified method for judging storm surge risk around Ariake Sea, many numerical computations for storm surge were carried out. A lot of various typhoon data, which are the input data for the storm surge computations, were created by a stochastic typhoon model with the Monte Carlo simulation. The relationships between the storm surges and typhoon parameters (the central atmospheric pressure, the radius of the maximum wind speed and the course) were investigated on the basis of the computation results. Then, the conditions of typhoons that may cause severe storm surges were clarified at several coastal areas around Ariake Sea.
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Based on the risk assessment model for the storm surge flood disaster in Huanghua of Hebei Province,with robust typhoon storm surge numerical model and 100m spatial resolution storm surge overland numerical model,and with the result data about mean sea level rising and land subside,the author calculated all possible routes,landing points,and direction of typhoon,and also considered 4 levels typhoon strength,including P0= 995 hPa,985 hPa,975 hPa and 965 hPa,and finally concluded with the effects of mean sea level on storm surge flooding area.The results show,if sea level rising 50/100cm,the average typhoon storm surge flooding area would increase about 35%/86%.And while P0=985 hPa or 975 Pa,the increasing area would become larger in percentage.The research indicates that the sea level rising will affect severely on the typhoon storm surge inundation in Huanghua.Nowadays,the climate change causing sea level rising will lead to some important attention on these low plain areas such as Huanghua and its adjacent Tianjin Binhai New District.
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Translation speed and scale of tropical cyclone are important factor of storm surge at local bay. We have to estimate storm surge variation range from information of tropical cyclone parameter we can get before it approaches to local area. Synthetic TC data based on historical TC tracks were generated and they were used for input to numerical model for estimating the water level of storm surge at regional scale. The TC track of the worst-case scenario for Yatsushiro bay located in center of west Kyushu Island was selected numerically. Finally, it was shown that it is possible to estimate rough variation range of maximum surge height from simulation results.
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In this study, to understand the characteristics of storm surges along the coast of innermost area in the Ariake Sea, the tidal changes at three points along the embankments were measured for about three months in the summer of 2012. In addition, several storm surge simulations were conducted by using the parameters of an actual Typhoon No.16 (T1216) to investigate the possible large storm surge in the Ariake Sea under the present climate conditions. The observational results show that the storm surge amplifies remarkably in the innermost area in particular. Furthermore the numerical simulation results imply that there is the risk of serious storm surge disaster in the Ariake Sea under even the present climate condition.
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우리나라는 매년 반복되는 태풍의 내습에 따른 폭풍해일로 인한 연안역에서의 침수범람피해 등의 자연재해 발생 가능성이 매우 높다. 본 논문에서는 폭풍해일고 및 이에 따른 해일침수범람의 발생을 육역까지 확장된 정밀격자망의 구성을 통해 수치 실험하였다. 해일 및 침수범람에 대한 수치실험에는 3차원 가변격자 유한체적모형 FVCOM이 적용되었으며, 부산, 마산, 여수 등의 실제 관측 자료와 비교하여 그 정밀도를 검증하였다. 수치실험 결과는 관측된 해일고, 침수범위 및 침수심을 정확히 재현하여 해일범람 모형으로서의 그 적용성을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 조석 조건을 강화한 가상 시나리오에 의한 침수범람의 모의를 통해 시범 영역에 대한 가상의 가능 침수범람분포를 살펴보았다. 이는 기존 태풍 MAEMI 내습시의 경우에 비해 약 84~134 cm의 해면고 상승을 더해진 경우인데, 마산의 경우 최대 4 m, 부산 및 여수에서도 1~2 m 정도의 가능침수고가 모의되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 통해 수립된 기반기술은 연안 침수범람의 예측시스템의 수립에의 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. The low-lying coastal area of Korea has often been damaged by storm surge and corresponding inundation as the approach of strong typhoons repeated every year. In this study, a systematic investigation of storm surge impact to the coasts of Korea peninsula has been conducted using the unstructured grid model, FVCOM. The model was applied to simulate the storm surge and corresponding inundation. Observations of surge and inland flooding data were used to validate the model with satisfactory results. The results of inundation simulations in this study showed correspondence with not only observed inundation area but also inundation depth to prove its ability as an inundation prediction model. And virtual inundation scenarios with enhanced tidal conditions were simulated to evaluate the possible maximum storm surge and inundation height. The simulation results for these scenarios are approximately 84~134 cm sea levels rising cases compared to typhoon MAEMI(2003)'s observation of surge and inland flooding. The possible inundation height was shown up to 4m in Masan and 1~2 m in Busan, Yeosu. The product of this study could be applied to coastal inundation prediction system and hazard mapping.
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Abstract Tropical cyclone–generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and costly natural disasters. The destructive nature of this hazard was clearly seen last fall, as Hurricane Sandy generated a devastating storm surge along the mid‐Atlantic coast. The storm killed 147 people and caused approximately $50 billion in economic losses [Blake et al., 2012].
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Abstract Storm surge is one of the most disastrous marine disasters to coastal regions. It is greatly essential to research on storm surge and mitigate this damage. In our paper, Typhoon hit the Japan Coast on 31 July, 2004. Jason-1 and two tide-gauge stations all captured the obvious sea level anomalies. The magnitude of this storm surge was approximately 0.4 m. We further used the Unstructured Grid Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) to simulate this storm surge. The method based on the relationships between the maximum wind speed of best track and that of CFSR data was adopted to reconstruct wind field. This method reduced the root mean squared error (RMSE) from 0.11 m to 0.07 m at Owase station. The accuracy was improved by 35%. Similar to Owase station, the RMSE was reduced from 0.085 m to 0.06 m at Cape Muroto station. The accuracy was improved by 30%.
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It is estimated that the risk of storm surge will increase as a result of the sea-level rise and more powerful typhoons caused by global warming. Evaluation of the storm surge flooding process is important for development of plans to protect farmlands from storm surge. Typhoon 9918 attacked and claimed twelve lives due by the storm surge disaster in the Yatsushiro sea coastal area in Japan. In this paper, a numerical simulation which reproduces the process of seawater flooding into lowland farmlands in the coastal area of the Yatsushiro Sea is carriedout. The finite difference method and the finite element method are used for the typhoon simulation and the storm surge flooding simulation, respectively. The results of the simulation and observation data showed that much of the floodwater originated not from sea embankments, but from overflowing riverbanks near the river mouth. This was caused by the differences in sea embankment and riverbank criteria. It is therefore important to adjustment these criteria to protect coastal farmlands from storm surge.
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