A Global Database of Tropical Storm Surges
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Abstract Tropical cyclone–generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and costly natural disasters. The destructive nature of this hazard was clearly seen last fall, as Hurricane Sandy generated a devastating storm surge along the mid‐Atlantic coast. The storm killed 147 people and caused approximately $50 billion in economic losses [Blake et al., 2012].Keywords:
Storm Surge
Atlantic hurricane
Natural hazard
Tropical cyclone scales
The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season is described. There were eight tropical storms and 11 hurricanes for a total of 19 named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during 1995. This is the second-largest number of tropical storms and hurricanes in over 100 years of records. Thirteen named tropical cyclones affected land.
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The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and several recent publications have sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more intense, longer‐lived tropical cyclones. This paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone frequency and intensity to determine trends in activity over the past twenty years during which there has been an approximate 0.2°–0.4°C warming of SSTs. The data indicate a large increasing trend in tropical cyclone intensity and longevity for the North Atlantic basin and a considerable decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All other basins showed small trends, and there has been no significant change in global net tropical cyclone activity. There has been a small increase in global Category 4–5 hurricanes from the period 1986–1995 to the period 1996–2005. Most of this increase is likely due to improved observational technology. These findings indicate that other important factors govern intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones besides SSTs.
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Atmospheric and oceanic climate factors and conditions play a crucial role in modulating seasonal/annual tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin. In the following, correlations between North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity including frequency of occurrence and pathways are explored, with special emphasis on hurricanes. The value of two-dimensional and three-dimensional data sets representing climate patterns is investigated. Finally, the diagnostic study of historical tropical cyclone and hurricane temporal and spatial variability and relationships to climate factors lead to a statistical prognostic forecast, made in April, 2010, of the 2010 tropical cyclone and hurricane season. This forecast is tested both retrospectively and presently and is shown to be quite accurate. Knowing the probability of the frequency of occurrence, i.e. the numbers of named storms to form in general and the number of hurricanes (NHs) that are likely to form, is important for many societal sectors. However, the reliable forecasts of probable pathways of predicted events, specifically the likely NH land falls along the coastlines of the United States, should have great potential value to emergency planners, the insurance industry, and the public. The forecast provided in this study makes such a prognostication. As the 2010 hurricane season has progressed, an update of the goodness of the forecast is shown to be quite accurate in numbers of named events, hurricanes, major hurricanes (MHs), and landfalls. The mathematical and statistical methodology used in this study, which could be coupled to next generation "empirical modal decomposition," suggests that this may signal a new era in the future of tropical cyclone forecasting, including the reliable prognostication of numbers of events, intensities of events, and the pathways of those events. The ability to reliably predict the probability and location of land falls of these destructive events would be very powerful indeed.
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The 2013 season was forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (and many other seasonal forecast centers) to be much more active in terms of tropical cyclone activity than it turned out to be. The season was characterized by tropical cyclone activity that was well below normal and produced significantly fewer named storms than expected. This study investigates the reasons behind the poor forecast by analyzing the differences in the 2013 season compared to climatology from the previous 18 years (1995-2012), a very active Atlantic hurricane period associated with a multidecadal oscillation in the thermohaline circulation (Klotzbach & Gray, 2008).
Specifically, this study focuses in large part on the analysis of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which is used by NOAA to determine how “active” an individual tropical cyclone is throughout its life cycle, and how “active” a season is as a whole. ACE is calculated by using the formula ACE = 10-4Sv2 where v is the estimated sustained maximum wind speed measured in knots. This is calculated every six hours, typically at 0000, 0600,1200, and 1800 UTC. For this study, the 2013 tropical cyclone tracks were mapped using ArcGIS software and the ACE for all 2013 was calculated using data collected from NOAA. The Atlantic basin is then subdivided into three regions where tropical cyclones typically form throughout the season: East Atlantic (15°W-45°W), Mid-Atlantic (45°W-75°W) and Gulf of Mexico/Immediate Eastern U.S. Seaboard (75°W - 105°W). For each region, the total ACE for the 2013 season as well as the number of hurricane days is calculated. Then, the ACE values are calculated for each individual month (June-December). These values are compared with “typical” averages and analyzed. Additionally, the physical tracks of 2013 Atlantic tropical cyclones are analyzed and compared to those of a “typical” season using ArcGIS. This information quantifies the extent to which tropical cyclones in 2013 formed in anomalous locations or took anomalous paths compared to the 1995-2012 average.
It can be concluded from this study that the total ACE for 2013 was well below the average ACE value of a “typical” season. When analyzed by month, ACE for the Atlantic basin generally followed the expected climatology trend with a peak in September, but values were much smaller than climatology. It was found that 2013 ACE for the East Atlantic was about average and as expected, however ACE values from the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico/Immediate Eastern U.S. Seaboard were well below average. Climatology suggests that most tropical cyclone activity should be in the Mid-Atlantic region, but this was not the case for 2013 when most activity was located in the East Atlantic. Additionally, it was found that the number of hurricane days in 2013 was well below average, with the Mid-Atlantic region being particularly anomalous with no hurricane days in 2013.
This study will be a useful resource for meteorologists and climatologists to continue analyzing the 2013 season, and will serve as a basis for determining possible causes of the anomalous geographic distribution of tropical cyclone activity in 2013. The information herein will also be beneficial in observing long-term trends and improving seasonal outlooks in the future.
Atlantic hurricane
Tropical cyclone scales
Tropical cyclogenesis
African easterly jet
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African easterly jet
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A total of 69 tropical waves (also known as African and easterly waves) were counted in the Atlantic basin during the 1992 hurricane season. As was the case in 1991, the waves were, in general, relatively weak. These waves led to the formation of only four tropical depressions in the Atlantic hurricane basin, of which one intensified into a tropical storm and another intensified into Hurricane Andrew. Andrew was the only 1992 Atlantic hurricane to originate from a tropical wave. There were five additional tropical depressions that were primarily initiated by systems of nontropical origin. These produced three hurricanes and one tropical storm. It appears that tropical waves led to the formation of practically all of the eastern Pacific tropical cyclones in 1992.
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The 1998 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is summarized, and the individual tropical storms and hurricanes are described. It was an active season with a large number of landfalls. There was a near-record number of tropical cyclone–related deaths, due almost entirely to Hurricane Mitch in Central America. Brief summaries of forecast verification and tropical wave activity during 1998 are also presented.
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Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.
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The assumption that tropical cyclones respond primarily to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) local to their main development regions underlies much of the concern regarding the possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone statistics. Here the observed relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone intensities in the Atlantic basin is explored. Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity fluctuations and storm numbers are shown to depend not only upon SST anomalies local to the Atlantic main development region, but also in a negative sense upon the tropical mean SST. This behavior is shown in part to be consistent with changes in the tropical cyclone potential intensity that provides an upper bound on storm intensity. However, Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity fluctuations are more nonlocal than the potential intensity itself and specifically vary along with Atlantic main development region SST anomalies relative to the tropical mean SST. This suggests that there is no straightforward link between warmer SSTs in the main development region and more intense tropical cyclones.
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Activity during the 2001 hurricane season was similar to that of the 2000 season. Fifteen tropical storms developed, with nine becoming hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Two tropical depressions failed to become tropical storms. Similarities to the 2000 season include overall activity much above climatological levels and most of the cyclones occurring over the open Atlantic north of 25°N. The overall "lateness" of the season was notable, with 11 named storms, including all the hurricanes, forming after 1 September. There were no hurricane landfalls in the United States for the second year in a row. However, the season's tropical cyclones were responsible for 93 deaths, including 41 from Tropical Storm Allison in the United States, and 48 from Hurricanes Iris and Michelle in the Caribbean.
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