Sea level rise - How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries? [Past]
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data).Grounded ice elevations (m) are shown by the rainbow scale, and floating ice thicknesses (m) by the pink scale.The approximate location of Cape Roberts and ANDRILL sediment cores (Scherer et al. 2008; Naish et al. 2009) is shown by a black dot.Abstract Relative sea‐level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America is observed to be about 30 cm/century. No more than half of this rise can be explained by eustatic changes. It is improbable that the remainder is explicable by steric changes. It is therefore almost certainly produced by a systematic subsidence of that coast. The required rate of at least 15 cm/ century is very large by long‐term geologic standards. However, it is comparable with rates measured in relevelling programs, and we must recognize that we live in extraordinary times geologically in that ice‐ages are unusual, and we are in a very warm portion of the present ice‐age. If at least half of the observed relative sea‐level rise is caused by subsidence, it seems reasonable to suppose that nearly all, except for the effects of the observed melting of small glaciers, is so caused. Sea‐level rise is so variable in other parts of the world that there also it is better explained by crustal movements than by eustatic sea‐level rise. The doubt that these considerations place on the usual interpretation of past sea‐level rise extends to consideration of a possible future rise brought ori by climate change. It is uncertainty that has clearly increased, not eustatic sea‐level.
Future sea level
Geologic record
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Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change. Unlike physical models and semi-empirical models that attempt to approach how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this methodology allows for a discussion of the factor(s) that statistically affects sea level rates of change, and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlations.
Coastal sea
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Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic components of relative sea-level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Although the impacts of sea-level rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment and consideration.
Future sea level
Coastal sea
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Sea level rise over the last 55 years is estimated to have been 1.7 ± 0.2 mm yr −1 , based upon 177 tide gauges divided into 13 regions with near global coverage and using a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model to correct for land movements. We present evidence from altimeter data that the rate of sea level rise around the global coastline was significantly in excess of the global average over the period 1993–2002. We also show that the globally‐averaged rate of coastal sea level rise for the decade centered on 1955 was significantly larger than any other decade during the past 55 years. In some models of sea level rise, enhanced coastal rise is a pre‐cursor of global average rise. It remains to be seen whether the models are correct and whether global‐average rates in the future reflect the high rates of coastal rise observed during the 1990s.
Tide gauge
Post-glacial rebound
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data).Grounded ice elevations (m) are shown by the rainbow scale, and floating ice thicknesses (m) by the pink scale.The approximate location of Cape Roberts and ANDRILL sediment cores (Scherer et al. 2008; Naish et al. 2009) is shown by a black dot.
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Report of a project planning session in Delft (29-29/8/1986) and contains: Framework of analysis and recommendations; policy analysis; an outline of the contributions to the workshop; the lower countries and a higher Atlantic; The cause and effects of sea level rise; sea level rise on the awakening Earth; the data acquisition of trends observed in global mean sea level; estimating the impact of inundation; implications from the Mississippi delta; Ecological effects of a rapid relative increase of sea level; Some policy-oriented observations concerning sea level rise; Evaluations of the impacts of three scenarios of sea level rise on flood protection in the Netherlands; Impact of a rapid rise of the sea level on flood protection and water management of low-lying coastal areas; Economic impacts of sea level rise and the evaluation of counter-strategy scenarios; some societal consequences of sea level rise.
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