Simulation of the trans-oceanic tsunami propagation due to the 1883 Krakatau volcanic eruption
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Abstract. The 1883 Krakatau volcanic eruption has generated a destructive tsunami higher than 40 m on the Indonesian coast where more than 36 000 lives were lost. Sea level oscillations related with this event have been reported on significant distances from the source in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Evidence of many manifestations of the Krakatau tsunami was a subject of the intense discussion, and it was suggested that some of them are not related with the direct propagation of the tsunami waves from the Krakatau volcanic eruption. Present paper analyzes the hydrodynamic part of the Krakatau event in details. The worldwide propagation of the tsunami waves generated by the Krakatau volcanic eruption is studied numerically using two conventional models: ray tracing method and two-dimensional linear shallow-water model. The results of the numerical simulations are compared with available data of the tsunami registration.Keywords:
Vulcanian eruption
Tsunami wave
A feasibility study to develop a tsunami alert system for Mexican earthquakes, using broadband seismograms from the National Seismological Service, is currently under way. A first step in this direction is a revision of the Mexican tsunami catalogs. In these catalogs, one of the largest tsunamis of this century is reported in the Port of Zihuatanejo and has been re- lated to an earthquake which occurred on November 16, 1925. This earthquake was located at a distance of about 600 km from Zihuatanejo and had a surface-wave magnitude, Ms, of 7.0. In developing a tsunami alert system, it is important t o know if the tsunami was indeed related to the earthquake of 1925. In this note we examine available evidence and find thatthe tsunami was not related to the earthquake. There is no evidence of a local earthquake near Zihuatanejo which may have resulted in the tsunami. We conclude that the tsunami was either caused by slumping of the sea floor near Zihuatanejo or by a meteorological phenomenon in the region.
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To mitigate a volcanic eruption disaster, it is important to forecast the transition of the disaster, which depends on the stage of the volcanic phenomena, in addition to forecasting the site, scale, and time of the volcanic activities. To make such forecasts, it is critical to elucidate the evolution of volcanic activity. Accordingly, the Volcano Program Promotion Panel has set the prioritized target as “to forecast volcanic eruption as a cause of disaster by clarifying the branching conditions and theories of volcanic activity and improving volcanic event tree.” The panel promoted a five-year study on the elucidation of volcanic phenomena, including low-frequency and large-scale ones, status of volcanic eruption fields, volcanic eruption modeling, observation method development, and observation system improvement. In this paper, an outline of the main results of this five-year study is presented.
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The message dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruptions Response Team (SVERT) summarizes the main results and effect of its working, showing the relevance and existing problems of monitoring volcanic activity. From 2003 to 2023 SVERT remains the structure for monitoring volcanic activity in the Sakhalin region.
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Large volcanic eruptions have strong impacts on both atmospheric and ocean dynamics that can last for decades. Numerical models have attempted to reproduce the effects of major volcanic eruptions on climate; however, there are remarkable inter-model disagreements related to both short-term dynamical response to volcanic forcing and long-term oceanic evolution. The lack of robust simulated behaviour is related to various aspects from model formulation to simulated background internal variability to the eruption details. Here, we use the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 to calculate interactively the volcanic aerosol loading resulting from SO2 emissions of the second largest high-latitude volcanic eruption in historical time (the Laki eruption of 1783). We use two different approaches commonly used interchangeably in the literature to generate ensembles. The ensembles start from different background initial states, and we show that the two approaches are not identical on short-time scales (<1 yr) in discerning the volcanic effects on climate, depending on the background initial state in which the simulated eruption occurred. Our results also show that volcanic eruptions alter surface climate variability (in general increasing it) when aerosols are allowed to realistically interact with circulation: Simulations with fixed volcanic aerosol show no significant change in surface climate variability. Our simulations also highlight that the change in climate variability is not a linear function of the amount of the volcanic aerosol injected. We then provide a tentative estimation of the ensemble size needed to discern a given volcanic signal on surface temperature from the natural internal variability on regional scale: At least 20–25 members are necessary to significantly detect seasonally averaged anomalies of 0.5°C; however, when focusing on North America and in winter, a higher number of ensemble members (35–40) is necessary.
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A volcanic eruption is a kind of global natural disaster that can occur suddenly and cause great damage to humankind. During the eruption, the magma causes fatal damage to life and property in areas near the volcano, and nearby countries are affected by the spread of volcanic ash, causing secondary damage due to air and soil pollution. Near the Korean peninsula, there exists an active volcano that can spread volcanic ash over long distances by erupting above Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 4. Volcanoes in Japan have been known to cause considerable volcanic ash damage on the Korean Peninsula during eruption. Accordingly, the Korea Meteorological Administration is developing technology to predict and monitor volcanic ash spread using satellite images. However, despite the fact that empirical models for volcanic ash diffusion range prediction are used during volcanic eruptions, continuous improvement is needed for accurate information prediction. In this study, satellite images were analyzed not for the predicted distance of volcanic ash clouds, but for the actual distance of volcanic ash dispersion in cases where the volcanic ashes dispersed in the direction of the Korean peninsula. Of the 3,880 volcanoes that erupted in Japan over the last four years, 111 cases were identified where the height and spread distance of the volcanic ash that erupted toward the Korean Peninsula can be confirmed. In addition, the actual volcanic eruption cases and modeling results were analyzed to determine the extent of volcanic ash spread, and a hypothetical scenario was tested to quantify the direct damage of the volcanic ash. From the analysis of the volcanic ash spread through the virtual simulations, it was found that the height of the volcanic ash, the direction of the wind, and wind speed during volcanic eruption were important factors.
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Based on the dataset provided by Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanic Programme, we extracted the large volcanic eruptions(Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥ 4) events from 1750 to 2010, and then analyzed the main characteristics of large volcanic eruptions since 1750 by their geographic latitudes, elevations, years and months. The results showed that the most of large volcanic eruptions occurred around the margins of Pacific Ocean, and the islands of Sumatra and Java from 1750 to 2010, especially in the equatorial regions(10° N-10° S). Large volcanic eruptions were mainly observed at elevations of 1000-2000 m, and in January and April. The number of the occurrences in the summer half-year(from April to September) was larger than that of the winter half-year(from October to next March). Large volcanic eruptions had interdecadal fluctuations including 15-25 years and 35-50 years, which were detected by Morlet wavelet analysis, and more frequent cyclic fluctuation of volcanic eruption was found after 1870. There were more large volcanic eruptions events during the periods of 1750-1760, 1776-1795, 1811-1830, 1871-1890, 1911-1920, and 1981-1995.
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Abstract Anak Krakatau Volcano is located in the Sunda Strait known for its paroxysmal eruption in 1883. During the January - November 2019 period, seismicity was dominated by types of quakes which indicated the occurrence of magma supply (VA and VB), near-surface volcanic activity (LF, Hybrid, Harmonic Tremors), and volcanic activity above the volcanic surface (eruptions, emission, and continuous tremors). In the period December 2019 - July 2020, there was an increase in the types of quakes near the surface (LF, Hybrid) and the types of quakes on the surface (emission and continuous tremors). Volcanic deformation monitors changes in tilt over the 2019-2020 period associated with pressure releases before, during and after the eruption. The results of GPS data modeling, the shallow pressure source is at a depth of 0.22 km below sea level. Volcanic activity until July 2020 was dominated by activity near and above the volcanic surface associated with the growth of lava domes. The volcanic system of Anak Krakatau is currently an open system, with the potential for eruptions. Strengthening the early warning system for the eruption of Anak Krakatau is important in mitigating efforts and understanding its eruption potential
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Effusive eruption
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Large volcanic eruption is an important factor affecting global climate change. In the past few decades, many researchers reconstructed a number of climate series based on tree rings on the Tibetan Plateau, and examined the impacts of large volcanic eruptions on the climate. The results showed that these tree-ring sites used to examined the influences of large volcanic eruptions on climate change were primarily located in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. In addition, the series comparison and the superposed epoch analysis were main methods for studying the climate effects of large volcanic eruptions. Based on the results analyzed using two methods, we suggested that the large volcanic eruptions in low-mid latitudes had a significant impact on temperature and dry/wet variation. Cooling or drought occurred after large volcanic eruptions in the subsequent 1-2 years. How-ever, the large volcanic eruptions in high latitudes had minor impacts on climate change. Furthermore, consecutive multiple volcanic eruptions could result in cooling at the decades scale. The factors influencing the climate effects of large volcanic eruptions included the location of the volcanic eruptions, intensity of the volcanic eruptions, atmospheric circulation, etc. Finally, we proposed research projects that need to be carried out in the future.强火山喷发是影响全球气候变化的重要因素。过去几十年,不同学者基于青藏高原地区树木年轮重建了多条气候变化序列,并依据这些序列研究了全球强火山喷发对青藏高原地区气候的影响。结果表明: 探讨强火山喷发对青藏高原气候影响的树轮序列主要分布在青藏高原东部。利用序列对比法和时序叠加法分析发现,中低纬度的强火山喷发对青藏高原地区温度和干湿变化影响显著,并在强火山喷发后的1～2年内出现降温或者发生干旱,而高纬度的强火山喷发影响较小。此外,连续的多次强火山喷发能导致该区出现年代际的冷期。影响强火山喷发气候效应的因素主要包括火山喷发位置、喷发强度、大气环流等。最后结合国内外研究现状,对未来需要开展的研究方向进行了展望。.
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