Discussion of Rennie, A.F. and Hansom, J.D. 2011. Sea level trend reversal: Land uplift outpaced by sea level rise on Scotland's coast. Geomorphology, 125 (1), 193–202
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Sea-Level Change
Abstract Detection and quantification of sea level accelerations at tide gauge stations are needed for assessing anthropogenic contributions to the climate change. Nonetheless, uniform or non-uniform sea level accelerations/decelerations are particularly di˚cult to discern partly because of their small magnitudes and partly because of the low frequency sea level variations as confounders. Moreover, noisy excursions in the observed sea level variations also exacerbate reliability of estimated sea level accelerations. This study explores the uniformity of a sea level acceleration graphically that is left unmodeled in the residuals of a least squares solution using cumulative sum charts. Key West, USA tide gauge station’s record is studied for a demonstration. The cumulative sum charts of the residuals of a rigorous kinematic model solution without the acceleration parameter revealed its crisp and uniform signature experienced at this station since 1913.
Tide gauge
Sea-Level Change
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Tide gauge data from 1950 to 2015 are used to analyze sea level change, tidal change, return levels, and design tide levels under rising sea level scenarios in Bohai Bay. Results show the following: 1) Since 1950 sea levels in Bohai Bay show a significant rising trend of 3.3 mm per year. The speed has been particularly rapid in 1980–2015 at a rate of 4.7 mm per year. 2) Astronomical tides showed a clear long-term trend in 1950–2015. The amplitude and phase lag of the M2 tide constituent decreased at a rate of 0.21 cm per year and 0.11° per year, respectively and the phase lag of K1 decreased at a rate of 0.09° per year, whereas there was little change in its amplitude. The mean high and low tides increased at a rate of 0.08 and 0.52 cm per year, respectively, whereas the mean tidal range decreased at a rate of 0.44 cm per year. Results from numerical experiments show that local sea level rise plays an important role in the tidal dynamics change in Bohai Bay. 3) It is considered that the sea level return periods will decrease owing to the influence of sea level rise and land subsidence, therefore design tide level will change in relation to sea level rise. Therefore, the ability of seawalls to withstand water will diminish, and storm surge disasters will become more serious in the future.
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Storm Surge
Sea-Level Change
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The tide record between 1970 and 2003 for Durban, South Africa, is analysed to determine the extent of recent linear and nonlinear sea-level trends in the light of predicted global sea-level rise. Given the stability of the adjacent land mass, Durban is ideally suited to test global sea-level change. The linear trends of monthly mean sea level revealed a sea-level rise of 2.7 + 0.05 mm/yr and the yearly mean sea-level trend revealed a rise of 2.4 + 0.29 mm/yr. Nonlinear trends varied between -1 mm and +8 mm/yr. These findings are similar to recently published results of global sea-level rise calculations over the last ten years derived from worldwide tide gauge and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter measurements, which range between 2.4 and 3.2 mm/yr.
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Sea-Level Change
Global Change
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Sea level variations prior to the launch of satellite altimeters are estimated by analysing historic tide gauge records. Recently, a number of groups have reconstructed sea level by applying EOF techniques to gappy data. We complement this study with alternativemethods. In a first step gaps in 178 records of sea level change are filled using the pattern recognition capabilities of artificial neural networks. Afterwards satellite altimetry is used to extrapolate local sea level change to global fields. Patterns of sea level change are compared to prior studies. Global mean sea level change since 1900 is found to be 1.65 ± 0.26 mm per year on average.
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Sea-Level Change
Satellite Altimetry
Global Change
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Sea level rise over the last 55 years is estimated to have been 1.7 ± 0.2 mm yr −1 , based upon 177 tide gauges divided into 13 regions with near global coverage and using a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model to correct for land movements. We present evidence from altimeter data that the rate of sea level rise around the global coastline was significantly in excess of the global average over the period 1993–2002. We also show that the globally‐averaged rate of coastal sea level rise for the decade centered on 1955 was significantly larger than any other decade during the past 55 years. In some models of sea level rise, enhanced coastal rise is a pre‐cursor of global average rise. It remains to be seen whether the models are correct and whether global‐average rates in the future reflect the high rates of coastal rise observed during the 1990s.
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Post-glacial rebound
Future sea level
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data).Grounded ice elevations (m) are shown by the rainbow scale, and floating ice thicknesses (m) by the pink scale.The approximate location of Cape Roberts and ANDRILL sediment cores (Scherer et al. 2008; Naish et al. 2009) is shown by a black dot.
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A consequence of the current global warming is rising sea level as polar ice melts. The future effect of such sea level rise on shorelines, river deltas and river long profiles is not well known. The problem may be understood by studying the consequences of Holocene sea level rise after the last glaciation. The melting of the Pleistocene glaciers caused a sea level rise of-120 m, mostly in a period of 12, 000 years. Here the effect of rising sea level on river deltas and long profiles is explored numerically for the Fly-Strickland River System, Papua New Guinea. The results suggest that (1) this river delta experienced the autoretreat and autobreak phenomenon during the sea-level rise, (2) the effect of the sea-level rise has extended to the far upstream reaches of the river delta, and (3) the present Fly-Strickland estuary represents the traces and on-going processes of the recovery from the effect of the past rapid sea-level rise.
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Sea-Level Change
Post-glacial rebound
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This study presents a sea level curve from 15 ka BP to the present-day for the southern Yangtze delta plain,China.The curve is based on the radiocarbon dates and elevations from 58 samples of supratidal saltmarsh peat and peaty mud.The results indicate that the local relative sea level rose quickly(ca.1 m/100 yr) during the periods 14–12 and 10–8 cal.ka BP.This rate of sea level rise then fell slowly towards the current rate from 8 to 6 cal.ka BP,and has remained stable since 5 cal.ka BP.These results suggest a step-like global sea level rise controlled by the melting of ice sheets.
Salt marsh
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Sea level variations prior to the launch of satellite altimeters are estimated by analysing historic tide gauge records. Recently, a number of groups have reconstructed sea level by applying EOF techniques to gappy data. We complement this study with alternative methods. In a first step gaps in 178 records of sea level change are filled using the pattern recognition capabilities of artificial neural networks. Afterwards satellite altimetry is used to extrapolate local sea level change to global fields. Patterns of sea level change are compared to prior studies. Global mean sea level change since 1900 is found to be on average 1.79 mm per year.
Tide gauge
Sea-Level Change
Satellite Altimetry
Global Change
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