Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been proposed to be a key driver of biological processes in the Indian Ocean (IO) in the present climate. Given the expected influence of global warming on both the properties of the IOD and the biogeochemistry within the IO, a key question arises: How will the relationship between the IOD and chlorophyll evolve in a warming climate? Here, utilizing simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 Earth System models, our findings reveal a notable intensification in the IOD-chlorophyll relationship under greenhouse warming. This intensification is linked to an increase in phytoplankton biomass during the June to November period of positive IOD years in the southeastern IO (SEIO). Interestingly, our analysis indicates a substantial rise in IOD-induced chlorophyll levels in a warming climate, despite a marked decrease in IOD-induced upwelling in the SEIO. The shallower thermocline leads to an increase in the mean nutrient concentration in the subsurface layer, thereby facilitating an enhanced anomalous nutrient supply to the surface layer, which contributes to increased phytoplankton biomass. Our study highlights the consequential effects of IOD on chlorophyll dynamics and underscores the need for improvement of Earth System Models to resolve our understanding of biophysical interactions in the IO in response to global warming.
Abstract Several studies have shown that rapid sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) significantly modulates the summer monsoon rainfall (SMR) over India. However, it remains unclear how the IO SST warming affects the SMR in Sri Lanka (SL). Therefore, based on observations and reanalysis data, this study investigates the impact of IO warming on SMR variability in the wet‐zone of SL during 2001–2020. The results revealed that the SMR (May–September) in SL's wet zone is increasing and is associated with rapid SST warming in the Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon. Although it is reported that the SMR may decrease over India due to the weakening of land‐sea thermal gradient in summer associated with IO warming, the rapid warming of the AS appears to enhance the SMR in the wet zone of SL. The warming of the AS during summer strengthened the low‐level easterlies, favouring moisture convergence and convection over SL, which enhanced the SMR of the wet zone of SL.
Abstract The southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) is a region of rich mesoscale eddy activity that plays an important role in modulating water exchange between the BoB and the Arabian Sea. Although statistical surface characteristics of mesoscale eddies in the BoB have been sufficiently explored previously, most studies concentrated on the western and central BoB, but rarely in the southern BoB. In this study, an energetic mesoscale anticyclonic eddy (AE) was detected by long‐term mooring observations in the southern BoB during June 2020. The mooring observations revealed that the AE‐induced maximum temperature and salinity anomalies at 100 m were as large as 6.8°C and 0.3 psu, respectively. The available Argo profiles showed that the AE‐induced salinity anomalies had a three‐layer vertical structure, with a positive anomaly (maximum 0.28 psu) deeper than 100 m and (maximum 0.72 psu) shallower than 40 m, and a negative anomaly (maximum −0.86 psu) between 40 and 100 m, indicating that the AE could exert a significant effect on the redistribution of surface freshwater in the southern BoB. The AE formation was closely connected with remote forcing (equatorial Kelvin wave) and local processes (Rossby wave and local wind stress curl). Local energy conversion analysis demonstrated that baroclinic and barotropic instabilities, as well as wind stress work made comparable contributions to the generation of the AE. Given the frequent occurrence of the AEs to northwest of Sumatra, they could have significant effects on surface freshwater redistribution and regional ecosystem productivity in the southern BoB.
Convective extreme El Niño (CEE) events, characterized by strong convective events in the eastern Pacific, are known to have a direct link to anomalous climate conditions worldwide, and it has been reported that CEE will occur more frequently under greenhouse warming. Here, using a set of CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down ensemble experiments, we show that frequency and maximum intensity of CEE events increase further in the ramp-down period from the ramp-up period. These changes in CEE are associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and intensified nonlinear rainfall response to sea surface temperature change in the ramp-down period. The increasing frequency of CEE has substantial impacts on regional abnormal events and contributed considerably to regional mean climate changes to the CO2 forcings.
The Journal of the National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka publishes the results of research in all aspects of Science and Technology. The journal also has a website at http://www.nsf.gov.lk/. 2021 Impact Factor: 0.682The JNSF provides immediate open access to its content on the principle that making research freely available to the public supports a greater global exchange of knowledge.Cover :Leatherback (a), green (b - adult & f - hatchling), hawksbill (c) and olive ridley (d) turtles who nest in Sri Lankan beaches, green turtle crawl marks (e) and by-catch of sea turtles in fisheries (c & d)Photo credits: SJ Perera (a & c), WPN Perera (b & e), K Ekaratne (d & f)
The Journal of the National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka publishes the results of research in all aspects of Science and Technology. The journal also has a website at http://www.nsf.gov.lk/. 2021 Impact Factor: 0.682The JNSF provides immediate open access to its content on the principle that making research freely available to the public supports a greater global exchange of knowledge.
Abstract Recent studies have pointed out an increased warming over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and how such warming could alter the convection and rainfall in the region. In this study, using observational/reanalysis datasets from 1981 to 2020, we show that the early Maha rainfall of Sri Lanka (SL) has been increasing, and it is considerably influenced by the North‐western IO sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the second inter‐monsoon (SIM). A significant warming in the North‐western IO alters the zonal SST gradient and strengthens the low‐level circulation, which induces large‐scale convergence over the western IO during SIM, contributing to the enhancement of rainfall over SL. However, despite the substantial impact of IO warming, the moderate correlation suggests the importance of examining other factors, which may influence the rainfall variability of SL.
Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant climate mode in the Indian Ocean, characterized by oscillating sea surface temperature anomalies between the western and southeastern equatorial regions. The IOD influences surface circulation, affecting coastal upwelling (downwelling), thereby increasing (decreasing) surface nutrients. These changes alter surface phytoplankton populations, measurable through their photosynthetic pigment, chlorophyll-a. The positive (pIOD) and negative (nIOD) phases of the IOD affect surface chlorophyll differently, particularly along the west of Sumatra (WS) and southwest of the Indian subcontinent (SWI). While changes in surface chlorophyll occur oppositely during each IOD phase, it is unclear how the intensity of surface chlorophyll changes during the positive and negative IOD phases. Given its importance, we investigate this question using observational data and historical simulations from a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model. Our findings reveal that although the chlorophyll response follows a dipole pattern, the pIOD phase exerts a dominant influence, with chlorophyll intensity during pIOD exceeding that during nIOD. Specifically, during pIOD, chlorophyll concentrations increase in the WS region and decrease in the SWI region, showing pronounced asymmetry in the intensity of IOD-induced chlorophyll changes. This disparity is driven by anomalous southeasterly winds during pIOD, which enhance nutrient upwelling in the WS and suppress it in the SWI, leading to variations in surface chlorophyll blooms. Thus, our results emphasize the asymmetric nature of IOD-induced changes in surface chlorophyll in the Indian Ocean, with important implications for marine food webs, fisheries, ocean biogeochemical cycles, and global climate systems.