Abstract Variability in the heat delivery by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is responsible for modulating the basal melting of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves. However, the mechanisms controlling the CDW inflow to the region’s continental shelf remain little understood. Here, a high-resolution regional model is used to assess the processes governing heat delivery to the Amundsen Sea. The key mechanisms are identified by decomposing CDW temperature variability into two components associated with 1) changes in the depth of isopycnals [heave (HVE)], and 2) changes in the temperature of isopycnals [water mass property changes (WMP)]. In the Dotson–Getz trough, CDW temperature variability is primarily associated with WMP. The deeper thermocline and shallower shelf break hinder CDW access to that trough, and CDW inflow is regulated by the uplift of isopycnals at the shelf break—which is itself controlled by wind-driven variations in the speed of an undercurrent flowing eastward along the continental slope. In contrast, CDW temperature variability in the Pine Island–Thwaites trough is mainly linked to HVE. The shallower thermocline and deeper shelf break there permit CDW to persistently access the continental shelf. CDW temperature in the area responds to wind-driven modulation of the water mass on-shelf volume by changes in the rate of inflow across the shelf break and in Ekman pumping-induced vertical displacement of isopycnals within the shelf. The western and eastern Amundsen Sea thus represent distinct regimes, in which wind forcing governs CDW-mediated heat delivery via different dynamics.
Abstract For the first time, we compute the sea-ice concentration budget of a fully coupled climate model, the Australian ACCESS model, in order to assess its realism in simulating the autumn–winter evolution of Antarctic sea ice. The sea-ice concentration budget consists of the local change, advection and divergence, and the residual component which represents the net effect of thermodynamics and ridging. Although the model simulates the evolution of sea-ice area reasonably well, its sea-ice concentration budget significantly deviates from the observed one. The modelled sea-ice budget components deviate from observed close to the Antarctic coast, where the modelled ice motion is more convergent, and near the ice edge, where the modelled ice is advected faster than observed due to inconsistencies between ice velocities. In the central ice pack the agreement between the model and observations is better. Based on this, we propose that efforts to simulate the observed Antarctic sea-ice trends should focus on improving the realism of modelled ice drift.
Abstract The Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica features rapidly thinning ice shelves, large polynyas, and sizable spring phytoplankton blooms. Although considerable effort has gone into characterizing heat fluxes between the Amundsen Sea, its associated ice shelves, and the overlying atmosphere, the effect of the phytoplankton blooms on the distribution of heat remains poorly understood. In this modeling study, we implement a feedback from biogeochemistry onto physics into MITgcm‐BLING and use it to show that high levels of chlorophyll—concentrated in the Amundsen Sea Polynya and the Pine Island Polynya—have the potential to increase springtime surface warming in polynyas by steepening the attenuation profile of solar radiation with depth. The chlorophyll‐associated warm anomaly (on average between +0.2C and +0.3C) at the surface is quickly dissipated to the atmosphere, by increases in longwave, latent and sensible heat loss from open water areas. Outside of the coastal polynyas, the summertime warm anomaly leads to an average sea ice thinning of 1.7 cm across the region, and stimulates up to 20% additional seasonal melting near the fronts of ice shelves. The accompanying cold anomaly, caused by shading of deeper waters, persists year‐round and affects a decrease in the volume of Circumpolar Deep Water on the continental shelf. This cooling ultimately leads to an average sea ice thickening of 3.5 cm and, together with associated changes to circulation, reduces basal melting of Amundsen Sea ice shelves by approximately 7% relative to the model scenario with no phytoplankton bloom.
Abstract The physical interactions between ice sheets and the atmosphere and ocean around them are major factors in determining the state of the climate system, yet many current Earth System models omit them entirely or treat them very simply. In this work we describe how models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been incorporated into the global U.K. Earth System model (UKESM1) via substantial technical developments with a two‐way coupling that passes fluxes of energy and water, and the topography of the ice sheet surface and ice shelf base, between the component models. File‐based coupling outside the running model executables is used throughout to pass information between the components, which we show is both physically appropriate and convenient within the UKESM1 structure. Ice sheet surface mass balance is computed in the land surface model using multi‐layer snowpacks in subgrid‐scale elevation ranges and compares well to the results of regional climate models. Ice shelf front discharge forms icebergs, which drift and melt in the ocean. Ice shelf basal mass balance is simulated using the full three‐dimensional ocean model representation of the circulation in ice‐shelf cavities. We show a range of example results, including from simulations with changes in ice sheet height and thickness of hundreds of meters, and changes in ice sheet grounding line and land‐terminating margin of many tens of kilometres, demonstrating that the coupled model is computationally stable when subject to significant changes in ice sheet geometry.
The Larsen C Ice Shelf is the most northerly of the remaining major Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves and is vulnerable to changes in both to ocean and atmospheric forcing. It is the largest ice shelf in the region and its loss would lead to a significant drawdown of ice from the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet. There have been observations of widespread thinning, melt ponding in the northern inlets, and, in the northern part,
a speed-up in ice flow, all processes which have been linked to former ice shelf collapses. Previous studies have also highlighted the vulnerability of Larsen C Ice Shelf to specific potential changes in its geometry including a retreat from the Bawden and Gipps Ice Rise. In a change from the usual pattern, a northwards-propagating rift from Gipps Ice Rise has recently advanced towards the center of the ice shelf. It is now more than halfway towards calving a large section of the ice shelf and continues to widen.
We followed the rift propagation on MODIS and Landsat imagery and, during the austral winter 2015, on Sentinel 1 radar data. Sentinel 1 data was also used to calculate flow velocity fields for the ice shelf.
We used a numerical model to investigate the influence of the future calving event on ice shelf stability.
To investigate a range of possible outcomes from a future calving event, we assumed two scenarios for the rift trajectory based on its current orientation and direction of propagation. To assess the stability of the future calving front we analyzed the difference between the predicted directions of ice flow and of first principal stress (stress-flow angle). Regions of the shelf exhibiting low stress-flow angles are likely to be more affected by small-scale calving because stresses act to open existing weaknesses. We find that the ice front is at risk of becoming unstable when the anticipated calving event occurs.
Abstract. Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica are rapidly retreating and contributing to sea level rise. Ice loss is occurring primarily via exposure to warm ocean water, which varies in response to local wind variability. There is evidence that retreat was initiated in the mid-20th century, but the perturbation that may have triggered retreat remains unknown. A leading hypothesis is that large pressure and wind anomalies in the 1940s drove exceptionally strong oceanic ice-shelf melting. However, the characteristics, drivers, and rarity of the atmospheric event remain poorly constrained. We investigate the 1940s atmospheric event using paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations. The reconstructions show that large westerly wind anomalies occurred from ~1938–1942, a combined response to the very large El Niño event from 1940–1942 and other variability beginning years earlier. Climate model simulations provide evidence that events of similar magnitude and duration are unusual but may have occurred tens to hundreds of times throughout the Holocene. Our results suggest that the 1940s westerly event is unlikely to have been exceptional enough to be the sole explanation for the initiation of Amundsen Sea glacier retreat. Naturally arising variability in ocean conditions prior to the 1940s, or anthropogenically driven trends since the 1940s, may be needed to explain the onset of retreat in West Antarctica.
Abstract Warm ocean waters drive rapid ice‐shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. The ocean heat transport toward the ice shelves is associated with the Amundsen Undercurrent, a near‐bottom current that flows eastward along the shelf break and transports warm waters onto the continental shelf via troughs. Here we use a regional ice‐ocean model to show that, on decadal time scales, the undercurrent's variability is baroclinic (depth‐dependent). Decadal ocean surface cooling in the tropical Pacific results in cyclonic wind anomalies over the Amundsen Sea. These wind anomalies drive a westward perturbation of the shelf‐break surface flow and an eastward anomaly (strengthening) of the undercurrent, leading to increased ice‐shelf melting. This contrasts with shorter time scales, for which surface current and undercurrent covary, a barotropic (depth‐independent) behavior previously assumed to apply at all time scales. This suggests that interior ocean processes mediate the decadal ice‐shelf response in the Amundsen Sea to climate forcing.
Abstract. An established rift in the Larsen C Ice Shelf, formerly constrained by a suture zone containing marine ice, grew rapidly during 2014 and is likely in the near future to generate the largest calving event since the 1980s and result in a new minimum area for the ice shelf. Here we investigate the recent development of the rift, quantify the projected calving event and, using a numerical model, assess its likely impact on ice shelf stability. We find that the ice front is at risk of becoming unstable when the anticipated calving event occurs.
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