How fast is climate changing? One generation is sufficient for unfamiliar heatwave characteristics to emerge in Europe
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We analyze the observed (1950–2020) and expected (2021–2050) change in temperature extremes and heatwave characteristics over Europe across time, and the emergence of unfamiliar (Signal to Noise ratio, S/N > 1), uncommon (S/N > 2) and unknown (S/N > 3) conditions from the 'parents' generation (1961–1990) to the 'grandchildren' one (2021–2050). Children born in 1991–2020 experienced conditions of extreme heat that were different from those at the time of their parents: at the European scale, 28.5—42.1% of the population in 1991–2020 experienced unfamiliar (and 1.3% uncommon) occurrence of extreme temperatures (Tx90p). Large areas of Spain, France, Germany, Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine experienced a significant increase in heatwave number, and, together with southern Italy and Scandinavia, enhanced cumulative heat (HWC, with large areas where the signal has emerged from variability since 2011, but, locally, earlier. People born in the next 30 years (2021–2050) are estimated to live in a climate with extreme heat substantially different from that of their grandparents. In some regions, nobody is projected to live in conditions that were 'familiar' in 1961–1990. Even under a moderately-low warming, 41.8–58.6% of the European population is expected to live in conditions of unfamiliar extreme temperatures, 28.5–41.5% uncommon, and 2.1–8.9% unknown, mostly over Spain (5.3–26.9%), the Alps (1.2–27.5%) and the Mediterranean region (1.7–15.8%). The change in heatwaves characteristics will not only concern their number, but also their length and intensity, with more than 60% of the European population projected to be exposed to unfamiliar HWC and up 16.4% to uncommon HWC.Vulnerability
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Although Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change, little research has focused on how climate change is perceived by Africans. Using random forest methodology, we analyze survey and climate data from second-order political boundaries to explore what predicts climate change beliefs in Africa. We include five different dimensions of climate change beliefs: climate change awareness, belief in anthropogenic climate change, risk perception, the need to stop climate change, and self-efficacy. Based on these criteria we identify five key results: (1) climate change in Africa is largely perceived through its negative impacts on agriculture; (2) actual changes in local climate conditions are related to climate change beliefs; (3) authoritarian and intolerant ideologies are associated to less climate change awareness, and a diminished risk perception and belief that it must be stopped; (4) women are less likely to be aware of climate change, and (5) not speaking French, English or Portuguese is linked to a hindered understanding of climate beliefs. Our combined results can help policy makers better understand the need to jointly consider the multilevel complexities of individual beliefs and hydroclimatic data for the development of more accurate adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat the impacts of climate change in Africa.
Risk Perception
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