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    Superiority of Mega‐ENSO Index in the Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific
    Earth and Space Science (2020)
    Yuan SunZhong ZhongTim LiLan YiJian ShiYixuan ShenKefeng LiuYijia HuZanmin Xu
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    Abstract:
    Abstract In this study, we compared the performance of two potential predicators, that is, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (Niño‐3.4) and mega‐ENSO index, in the seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and its spatial distribution over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the extended TC season, which is of public concern. Our results clearly show that, although both mega‐ENSO and Niño‐3.4 indices in the preceding May are important predictors for the seasonal predication, the relative‐sea surface temperature (SST)‐dependent mega‐ENSO exhibits a higher skill in the seasonal forecasting compared with the absolute‐SST‐dependent ENSO. Further results show that, despite of stronger destructiveness of TCs in high mega‐ENSO (El Niño) years than in low mega‐ENSO (La Niña) years, more attention should be paid to the TCs in low mega‐ENSO years, which are more likely to occur in coastal areas compared with the TCs in high mega‐ENSO years. Due to the responses of TC genesis, TC potential intensity, and large‐scale flow to the SST change in low mega‐ENSO years, the WNP TCs tend to originate in the northwestern quadrant and intensify at high latitudes and then turn northwestward over the TC prevailing region, which contributes to the northwestward migration of the WNP TC exposure in terms of track density and destructiveness density and thus imposes more risks in the coastal areas in low mega‐ENSO years. In addition, despite the significant predication skill in forecasting TC activity when using mega‐ENSO/Niño‐3.4 as a single predicator, it is still far to predict reliable WNP activity, especially its spatial distribution, without considering other predictors.
    Keywords:
    Multivariate ENSO index
    Mega-
    Low latitude
    Topics:
    Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
    Climate variability and models
    Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
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    The Oryx Resource Guide to El Niño and La Niña
    Greenwood eBooks (2002)
    Joseph D'Aleo
    Fish die. Seagulls starve. Economies wither. And that's just in the coastal villages. El Niño—The Christ Child—and its climatological opposite, La Niña, are global events so powerful and strange they virtually have personalities. Many remember the El Niño seasons of 1982-83 and 1997-98, which brought floods, tornadoes, droughts, and snow to unusual locales. Increased study of these Tropical Pacific phenomena, also known as ENSO (the El Niño and Southern Oscillation), has now enabled scientists to predict the ENSO state as much as 12 to 18 months in advance and has helped to shape weather prediction in general. Here, the basic causes and effects of El Niño and La Niña are carefully chronicled for anyone in search of accurate and current information on these natural phenomena. Chapters are devoted to the history of ENSO; its influence on global weather and on the United States, including the ecosystem; and how governments and industries worldwide are utilizing new weather data to harness ENSO's economic impact, rather than be saddled by it. A chronology tours key events, from the 15th century diary observations of colonists in Ecuador and Peru to recent events like the devastating El Niño of 1997-98, which was responsible for 23,000 deaths and $33 billion in damages. Biographies of important researchers, illustrations and maps, and an extensive bibliography help make this a total guide to these magnificent natural cycles.
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