The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent
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Abstract. The Arctic sea ice extent throughout the melt season is closely associated with initial sea ice state in winter and spring. Sea ice leads are important sites of energy fluxes in the Arctic Ocean, which may play an important role in the evolution of Arctic sea ice. In this study, we examine the potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent forecast using a recently developed daily sea ice lead product retrieved from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results show that July pan-Arctic sea ice extent can be predicted from the area of sea ice leads integrated from midwinter to late spring, with a prediction error of 0.28 million km2 that is smaller than the standard deviation of the observed interannual variability. However, the predictive skills for August and September pan-Arctic sea ice extent are very low. When the area of sea ice leads integrated in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic is used, it has a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) with both July and August sea ice extent in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic. Thus, the realistic representation of sea ice leads (e.g., the areal coverage) in numerical prediction systems might improve the skill of forecast in the Arctic region.Keywords:
Arctic geoengineering
Lead (geology)
Sea ice concentration
Fast ice
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The interplay between sea ice concentration, sea ice roughness, ocean stratification, and momentum transfer to the ice and ocean is subject to seasonal and decadal variations that are crucial to understanding the present and future air-ice-ocean system in the Arctic. In this study, continuous observations in the Canada Basin from March through December 2014 were used to investigate spatial differences and temporal changes in under-ice roughness and momentum transfer as the ice cover evolved seasonally. Observations of wind, ice, and ocean properties from four clusters of drifting instrument systems were complemented by direct drill-hole measurements and instrumented overhead flights by NASA operation IceBridge in March, as well as satellite remote sensing imagery about the instrument clusters. Spatially, directly estimated ice-ocean drag coefficients varied by a factor of three with rougher ice associated with smaller multi-year ice floe sizes embedded within the first-year-ice/multi-year-ice conglomerate. Temporal differences in the ice-ocean drag coefficient of 20–30% were observed prior to the mixed layer shoaling in summer and were associated with ice concentrations falling below 100%. The ice-ocean drag coefficient parameterization was found to be invalid in September with low ice concentrations and small ice floe sizes. Maximum momentum transfer to the ice occurred for moderate ice concentrations, and transfer to the ocean for the lowest ice concentrations and shallowest stratification. Wind work and ocean work on the ice were the dominant terms in the kinetic energy budget of the ice throughout the melt season, consistent with free drift conditions. Overall, ice topography, ice concentration, and the shallow summer mixed layer all influenced mixed layer currents and the transfer of momentum within the air-ice-ocean system. The observed changes in momentum transfer show that care must be taken to determine appropriate parameterizations of momentum transfer, and imply that the future Arctic system could become increasingly seasonal.
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Drift and variability of sea ice in the Amundsen Sea are investigated with ice buoys deployed in March 2000 and a coupled ice‐ocean model. The Bremerhaven Regional Ice Ocean Simulations (BRIOS) model results are compared with in situ ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice measurements; satellite observations; and 8–19 months of buoy drift data. We identify a zone of coastal westward drift and a band of faster eastward drift, separated by a broad transition region characterized by variable ice motions. The model represents drift events at scales approaching its resolution but is limited at smaller scales and by deficiencies in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction forcing. Two thirds of the modeled ice production in the southern Amundsen moves westward near the coast, its transport modulated by meridional wind strength, damping sea ice formation in the eastern Ross Sea. Half of the ice exported from the Ross moves eastward into the northern Amundsen Sea, a net sea ice sink that also receives more than one third of the ice generated to its south. A low rate of exchange occurs with the Bellingshausen Sea, which must have a more independent ice regime. Snow ice formation resulting from high precipitation accounts for one quarter of the ice volume in the Amundsen Sea, aiding the formation of thick ice in a region with generally divergent ice drift. Freshwater extraction by sea ice formation is roughly balanced by precipitation and ice shelf melting, but a positive trend in the surface flux is consistent with an Amundsen source for reported freshening in the Ross Sea.
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The Barents Sea is one of the fastest changing regions of the Arctic, and has experienced the strongest decline in winter-time sea-ice area in the Arctic, at decade−1. Sea-ice thickness in the Barents Sea is not well studied. We present two previously unpublished helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) ice thickness measurements from the northwestern Barents Sea acquired in March 2003 and 2014. The HEM data are compared to ice thickness calculated from ice draft measured by ULS deployed between 1994 and 1996. These data show that ice thickness varies greatly from year to year; influenced by the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that govern local formation vs long-range advection. In a year with a large inflow of sea-ice from the Arctic Basin, the Barents Sea ice cover is dominated by thick multiyear ice; as was the case in 2003 and 1995. In a year with an ice cover that was mainly grown in situ, the ice will be thin and mechanically unstable; as was the case in 2014. The HEM data allow us to explore the spatial and temporal variability in ice thickness. In 2003 the dominant ice class was more than 2 years old; and modal sea-ice thickness varied regionally from 0.6 to 1.4 m, with the thinner ice being either first-year ice, or multiyear ice which had come into contact with warm Atlantic water. In 2014 the ice cover was predominantly locally grown ice less than 1 month old (regional modes of 0.5–0.8 m). These two situations represent two extremes of a range of possible ice thickness distributions that can present very different conditions for shipping traffic; or have a different impact on heat transport from ocean to atmosphere.
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During August 1999, we investigated sea ice characteristics; its distribution, surface feature, thickness, ice floe movement, and the temperature field around inter-borders of air/ice/seawater in the Chukchi Sea. Thirteen ice cores were drilled at 11 floe stations in the area of 72°24′-77°18′N, 153°34′- 163°28′W and the ice core structure was observed. From field observation, three melting processes of ice were observed; surface layer melting, surface and bottom layers melting, and all of ice melting. The observation of temperature fields around sea ice floes showed that the bottom melting under the ice floes were important process. As ice floes and open water areas were alternately distributed in summer Arctic Ocean; the water under ice was colder than the open water by 0.4-2.8℃. The sun radiation heated seawater in open sea areas so that the warmer water went to the bottom when the ice floes move to those areas. This causes ice melting to start at the bottom of the ice floes. This process can balance effectively the temperature fluctuating in the sea in summer. From the crystalline structure of sea ice observed from the cores, it was concluded that the ice was composed of ice crystals and brine-ice films. During the sea ice melting, the brine-ice films between ice crystals melted firstly; then the ice crystals were encircled by brine films; the sea ice became the mixture of ice and liquid brine. At the end of melting, the ice crystals would be separated each other, the bond between ice crystals weakens and this leads to the collapse of the ice sheet.
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During August 1999, we investigated sea ice characteristics; its distribution, surface feature, thickness, ice floe movement, and the temperature field around inter-borders of air/ice/seawater in the Chukchi Sea. Thirteen ice cores were drilled at 11 floe stations in the area of 72°24′ 77°18′N, 153°34′ 163°28′W and the ice core structure was observed. From field observation, three melting processes of ice were observed; surface layer melting, surface and bottom layers melting, and all of ice melting. The observation of temperature fields around sea ice floes showed that the bottom melting under the ice floes were important process. As ice floes and open water areas were alternately distributed in summer Arctic Ocean; the water under ice was colder than the open water by 0.4 2.8℃. The sun radiation heated seawater in open sea areas so that the warmer water went to the bottom when the ice floes move to those areas. This causes ice melting to start at the bottom of the ice floes. This process can balance effectively the temperature fluctuating in the sea in summer. From the crystalline structure of sea ice observed from the cores, it was concluded that the ice was composed of ice crystals and brine-ice films. During the sea ice melting, the brine-ice films between ice crystals melted firstly; then the ice crystals were encircled by brine films; the sea ice became the mixture of ice and liquid brine. At the end of melting, the ice crystals would be separated each other, the bond between ice crystals weakens and this leads to the collapse of the ice sheet.
Fast ice
Pancake ice
Melt pond
Ice divide
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Observations of sea ice drift obtained with satellite‐tracked ice beacons in March–April of 1988 and 1989 have been used to examine the response of sea ice drift to wind forcing over the northern Newfoundland continental shelf. The short‐term (5–20 days) response of sea ice drift ranges from 2.6 to 5.4% of the local wind over much of the inner continental shelf, which is comparable to that in the Bering Sea and the Antarctic but larger than that in Arctic. Sea ice drifts to the right of the local wind, at angles ranging from 10° to 63°. The response to wind forcing is largest near the ice edge, both over the middle portions of the shelf and along the southern margins of the seasonal ice zone and during strong and steady wind of several days' duration. The large wind‐driven response of ice drift observed in this study, in comparison with the Arctic, may result from (1) reduced levels of internal ice stress associated with the generally thin ice cover and lower areal concentration of sea ice, (2) large atmospheric drag coefficients associated with the small ice floes in areas of comparatively higher ice concentration, and (3) smooth ice bottom caused by melting. In nearshore areas the ice to wind coupling is reduced owing to larger internal ice stresses experienced locally due to ice pileup.
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<p>SODA (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation) is one of the ocean reanalysis data widely used in oceanographic research. The SODA3 dataset provides multiple ocean reanalysis data sets driven by different atmospheric forcing fields. The differences between their arctic sea ice simulations are assessed and compared with observational data from different sources. We find that in the simulation of arctic sea ice concentration, the differences between SODA3 reanalysis data sets driven by different forcing fields are small, showing a low concentration of thick ice and a high concentration of thin ice. In terms of sea ice extent, different forced field model data can well simulate the decline trend of observed data, but the overall arctic sea ice extent is overestimated, which is related to more simulated sea ice in the sea ice margin. In terms of the simulation of arctic sea ice thickness, the results of different forcing fields show that the simulation of arctic sea ice thickness by SODA data set is relatively thin on the whole, especially in the thick ice region. The results of different models differ greatly in the Beaufort Sea, the Fram Strait, and the Central Arctic Sea. The above differences may be related to the differences between the model-driven field and the actual wind field, which leads to the inaccurate simulation of arctic sea ice transport and ultimately to the different thickness distribution simulation. In addition, differences in heat flux may also lead to differences in arctic sea ice between models and observations. In this paper, the differences between the results of arctic sea ice driven by different SODA3 forcing fields are studied, which provides a reference for the use of SODA3 data in the study of arctic sea ice and guidance for the selection of SODA data in the study of sea ice in different arctic seas.</p>
Sea ice concentration
Arctic geoengineering
Forcing (mathematics)
Lead (geology)
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The summer extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, widely recognized as an indicator of climate change, has been declining for the past few decades reaching a record minimum in September 2007. The causes of the dramatic loss have implications for the future trajectory of the Arctic sea ice cover. Ice mass balance observations demonstrate that there was an extraordinarily large amount of melting on the bottom of the ice in the Beaufort Sea in the summer of 2007. Calculations indicate that solar heating of the upper ocean was the primary source of heat for this observed enhanced Beaufort Sea bottom melting. An increase in the open water fraction resulted in a 500% positive anomaly in solar heat input to the upper ocean, triggering an ice–albedo feedback and contributing to the accelerating ice retreat.
Ice-albedo feedback
Arctic geoengineering
Melt pond
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