The Double-ITCZ Problem in IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Ocean–Atmosphere Feedback Analysis
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Abstract This study examines the double–intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) problem in the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The twentieth-century climate simulations of 22 IPCC AR4 CGCMs are analyzed, together with the available Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from 12 of them. To understand the physical mechanisms for the double-ITCZ problem, the main ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, including the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient–trade wind feedback (or Bjerknes feedback), the SST–surface latent heat flux (LHF) feedback, and the SST–surface shortwave flux (SWF) feedback, are studied in detail. The results show that most of the current state-of-the-art CGCMs have some degree of the double-ITCZ problem, which is characterized by excessive precipitation over much of the Tropics (e.g., Northern Hemisphere ITCZ, South Pacific convergence zone, Maritime Continent, and equatorial Indian Ocean), and are often associated with insufficient precipitation over the equatorial Pacific. The excessive precipitation over much of the Tropics usually causes overly strong trade winds, excessive LHF, and insufficient SWF, leading to significant cold SST bias in much of the tropical oceans. Most of the models also simulate insufficient latitudinal asymmetry in precipitation and SST over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The AMIP runs also produce excessive precipitation over much of the Tropics, including the equatorial Pacific, which also leads to overly strong trade winds, excessive LHF, and insufficient SWF. This suggests that the excessive tropical precipitation is an intrinsic error of the atmospheric models, and that the insufficient equatorial Pacific precipitation in the coupled runs of many models comes from ocean–atmosphere feedback. Feedback analysis demonstrates that the insufficient equatorial Pacific precipitation in different models is associated with one or more of the following three biases in ocean–atmosphere feedback over the equatorial Pacific: 1) excessive Bjerknes feedback, which is caused by excessive sensitivity of precipitation to SST and overly strong time-mean surface wind speed; 2) overly positive SST–LHF feedback, which is caused by excessive sensitivity of surface air humidity to SST; and 3) insufficient SST–SWF feedback, which is caused by insufficient sensitivity of cloud amount to precipitation. Off the equator over the eastern Pacific stratus region, most of the models produce insufficient stratus–SST feedback associated with insufficient sensitivity of stratus cloud amount to SST, which may contribute to the insufficient latitudinal asymmetry of SST in their coupled runs. These results suggest that the double-ITCZ problem in CGCMs may be alleviated by reducing the excessive tropical precipitation and the above feedback-relevant errors in the atmospheric models.Keywords:
Intertropical Convergence Zone
Convergence zone
Atmospheric models
We give an overview of the regional meteorological situation during the Indian Ocean Experiment INDOEX intensive field phase (IFP) in February and March 1999. The INDOEX domain, reaching from 30°N to 30°S and from 50°E to 100°E, was chosen because the low‐level outflow of pollution from India is carried by the northeasterly trades into the tropical convergence zone, where cloud processing modifies the properties of the aerosols. In contrast, there is also an inflow of pristine southern hemispheric air by the southeasterly trades into the convergence zone. However, during the 1999 IFP some deviations from the climatological mean were observed. In 1999 the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was broken into a northern convergence zone and a southern convergence zone. During February the northern zone was more active and the cross‐equatorial flow (N‐→S) was weak, both suggesting that less pollution was transported to the southern hemisphere. In February it was occasionally possible to sample a southern hemispheric air mass on the southern side of the INDOEX domain. During March 1999 the southern convergence zone became dominant and moved to a more southern position (near 5°–10°S). It is shown that four channels carry pollution into the INDOEX domain: (1) NE trades over the western Arabian Sea, (2) NW‐NE flow along the west coast of India, (3) NE trades over the west Bay of Bengal, and (4) NE flow from SE Asia. The strength of each channel is modulated by transients moving across Pakistan and northern India (western disturbances). The heating of the Indian subcontinent in March resulted in a eastern shift of the subtropical high from central India to the Bay of Bengal, which also affected channels 2, 3, and 4. Episodes of high and low carbon monoxide concentrations as measured in Kaashidhoo (Maldives) during the 1999 IFP can qualitatively be explained by the operationality of the flow channels, determined through trajectory analyses, in combination with the intensity of the northern convergence zone.
Intertropical Convergence Zone
Convergence zone
BENGAL
Outflow
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Intertropical Convergence Zone
Convergence zone
Forcing (mathematics)
Tropical Atlantic
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Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation strongly influences the interannual variability of rainfall over the Pacific, shifting the position and orientation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). In 1982/83 and 1997/98, very strong El Niño events occurred, during which time the SPCZ and ITCZ merged into a single zonal convergence zone (szCZ) extending across the Pacific at approximately 5°S. The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) reached very large values and peaked farther east compared to other El Niño events. Previous work shows that tropical Pacific precipitation responds nonlinearly to changing the amplitude of the El Niño SSTA even if the structure of the SSTA remains unchanged, but large canonical El Niño SSTAs cannot reproduce the szCZ precipitation pattern. This study conducts idealized, SST-forced experiments, starting with a large-amplitude canonical El Niño SSTA and gradually adding a residual pattern until the full (1982/83) and (1997/98) mean SST is reproduced. Differences between the canonical and strong El Niño SSTA patterns are crucial in generating an szCZ event. Three elements influence the precipitation pattern: (i) the local meridional SST maxima influences the ITCZ position and western Pacific precipitation, (ii) the total zonal SST maximum influences the SPCZ position, and (iii) the equatorial Pacific SST influences the total amount of precipitation. In these experiments, the meridional SST gradient increases as the SSTAs approach szCZ conditions. Additionally, the precipitation changes evident in szCZ years are primarily driven by changes in the atmospheric circulation, rather than thermodynamic changes. The addition of a global warming SST pattern increases the precipitation along the equator and shifts the ITCZ farther equatorward.
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Convergence zone
Walker circulation
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Abstract Previous modeling work showed that aerosol can affect the position of the tropical rain belt, i.e., the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Yet it remains unclear which aspects of the aerosol impact are robust across models, and which are not. Here we present simulations with seven comprehensive atmosphere models that study the fast and slow impacts of an idealized anthropogenic aerosol on the zonal‐mean ITCZ position. The fast impact, which results from aerosol atmospheric heating and land cooling before sea‐surface temperature (SST) has time to respond, causes a northward ITCZ shift. Yet the fast impact is compensated locally by decreased evaporation over the ocean, and a clear northward shift is only found for an unrealistically large aerosol forcing. The local compensation implies that while models differ in atmospheric aerosol heating, this does not contribute to model differences in the ITCZ shift. The slow impact includes the aerosol impact on the ocean surface energy balance and is mediated by SST changes. The slow impact is an order of magnitude more effective than the fast impact and causes a clear southward ITCZ shift for realistic aerosol forcing. Models agree well on the slow ITCZ shift when perturbed with the same SST pattern. However, an energetic analysis suggests that the slow ITCZ shifts would be substantially more model‐dependent in interactive‐SST setups due to model differences in clear‐sky radiative transfer and clouds. We also discuss implications for the representation of aerosol in climate models and attributions of recent observed ITCZ shifts to aerosol.
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Forcing (mathematics)
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Abstract Idealized experiments performed with the Community Atmospheric Model 5.3 indicate that the width and strength of the Hadley circulation (HC) are sensitive to the location of sea surface temperature (SST) increases. The HC edge shifts poleward in response to SST increases over the subtropical regions near and on the equatorward flank of the HC edge, and shifts equatorward in response to warming over the tropical area except for the western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. The HC is strengthened in response to SST increases over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and is weakened in response to SST increases over the subsidence branch of the HC in the subtropics. Tropical SST increases off the ITCZ tend to weaken the HC in the corresponding hemisphere and strengthen the HC in the opposite hemisphere. These results could be used to explain the simulated HC changes induced by recent SST variations, and it is estimated that more than half of the SST-induced HC widening in 1980–2014 is caused by changes in the spatial pattern of SST.
Intertropical Convergence Zone
Hadley cell
Walker circulation
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Intertropical Convergence Zone
Convergence zone
Speleothem
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Intertropical Convergence Zone
Convergence zone
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<p>Arguments based on atmospheric energetics and aqua-planet model simulations link the latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport &#8211;- a greater southward transport corresponds to a more northerly position of the ITCZ. This idea is often invoked to explain an interhemispheric dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies in paleoclimates. In contrast, here we demonstrate that in the tropical Pacific the response of the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system to a hemispherically asymmetric thermal &#160;forcing, modulating this energy transport, involves an interplay between the ITCZ and its counterpart in the South Pacific - the Southern Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). This interplay leads to interhemispheric seesaw changes in tropical precipitation, such that the latitudinal position of each rain band remains largely fixed, but their intensities follow a robust inverse relationship. The seesaw behavior is also evident in the past and future coupled climate simulations of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We also show that the tropical Pacific precipitation response to thermal forcing is qualitatively different between the aqua-planet (without ocean heat transport), slab-ocean (with climatological ocean heat transport represented by a ``Q-flux'') and fully-coupled model configurations. Specifically, the induced changes in the ITCZ latitudinal position successively decrease, while the seesaw precipitation intensity response becomes more prominent, from the aqua-planet to the slab-ocean to the fully-coupled configuration. Thus, the ITCZ/SPCZ seesaw can explain the paleoclimate precipitation dipole pattern without invoking a too strong climate forcing and is relevant to future projections of tropical precipitation.</p>
Intertropical Convergence Zone
Convergence zone
Forcing (mathematics)
Tropical Atlantic
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