Evaluation of operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over north Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department
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"Reply to “Comments on ‘Nonlinear Response of a Tropical Cyclone Vortex to Prescribed Eyewall Heating with and without Surface Friction in TCM4: Implications for Tropical Cyclone Intensification’”" published on Dec 2016 by American Meteorological Society.
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The association of tall precipitation with tropical cyclone intensification may have implications for the difficult task of forecasting the destructive potential of tropical cyclones. This study uses all of the well‐centered overflights of tropical cyclones from 1998 to 2003 seen by the TRMM Precipitation Radar. The chance of intensification increases when one or more extremely tall convective towers exist in the tropical cyclone's eyewall. We define an extremely tall convective tower as a convective cell with a 20 dBZ reflectivity signal that reaches an altitude of at least 14.5 km. In addition, we adapt this radar technique for use with more plentiful infrared and passive microwave data.
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"Comments on “Nonlinear Response of a Tropical Cyclone Vortex to Prescribed Eyewall Heating with and without Surface Friction in TCM4: Implications for Tropical Cyclone Intensification”" published on Dec 2016 by American Meteorological Society.
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長期の再現期間を想定した台風被害予測を行うために,少数の観測台風資料の統計特性から多数の台風資料を作成することが可能な時系列相関型の全球確率台風モデル(GSTM)を作成した.確率台風モデルの精度は台風特性値とその時間変化率に関する結合PDFの近似方法に依存しており,主成分分析とクラスター分析を用いた近似法により,中心気圧や進行方位といった台風特性値の再現性が向上することを明らかにした.また,新しく開発したGSTMを観測結果と比較して,その精度検証を行った.GSTMにより得られた台風資料から作成した各台風特性値の確率分布は,北西太平洋において観測資料のそれとよく一致しており,本確率台風モデルの有用性が示された.
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A barotropic prirnitive equation model is used to simulate the tropical cyclone motion.Tropical cyclonemovements under different environmental flow backgrounds were examined and sensitivity of tropical cyclonetracks were discussed.Conclusions of practical significance have been obtained in this paper.
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Puacc reoonmg burdsn lof this colieaion o( inlonnaiion >s asInnaiAO to av«rag« i tiour par response, inciuaing ine time lor reviewing tisirucnons. searcmng eiisiing aai* sources, gatnenng «na mamtaiturig ttie data rw«3eO. »nd coiTctoting«rKJ reviewrigthe co«oaiori o( iriloriTutiori. Serid eorrwnerns regmrairigtni« burd lor roduang this bufdeiv to Washington Headquarters Services. Direaorato lor inlormalion Ooeraiions and Reoons. 1215 JeHerson Davis Highway. Suite 1204. Arlington. VA 22202-4302. and to the OHiea ol Management and Budget. Papewiork Redudion Projea (0704-0186). Washington. DC 20503.
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This paper deals almost entirely with beneficial rains. Records of drought severity in the climatic divisions of the states are examined. The rainfall data from tropical cyclones which have moved over drought-stricken areas are used to tabulate in graphical form the ones which have been most beneficial. Other benefits which have, on occasion, been derived from the tropical cyclone are enumerated.
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