Profound Climatic Effects on Two East Asian Black-Throated Tits (Ave: Aegithalidae), Revealed by Ecological Niche Models and Phylogeographic Analysis
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Abstract:
Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis–concinnus) with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 32 populations (203 individuals) and used phylogenetic inferences to reconstruct the intra-specific relationships among haplotypes. Population genetic analyses were undertaken to gain insight into the demographic history of these populations. We used ENMs to predict the distribution of target species during three periods; last inter-glacial (LIG), last glacial maximum (LGM) and present. We found three highly supported, monophyletic MtDNA lineages and different historical demography among lineages in A. c. talifuensis–concinnus. These lineages formed a narrowly circumscribed intra-specific contact zone. The estimated times of lineage divergences were about 2.4 Ma and 0.32 Ma respectively. ENMs predictions were similar between present and LGM but substantially reduced during LIG. ENMs reconstructions and molecular dating suggest that Pleistocene climate changes had triggered and shaped the genetic structure of black-throated tit. Interestingly, in contrast to profound impacts of other glacial cycles, ENMs and phylogeographic analysis suggest that LGM had limited effect on these two subspecies. ENMs also suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations enabled the formation of the contact zone and thus support the refuge theory.Keywords:
Last Glacial Maximum
Subspecies
Environmental niche modelling
Demographic history
Lineage (genetic)
Abstract Aim Due to the lack of sufficient information, with which to infer past distributions of species, Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) has been used to reconstruct palaeo‐distributions, based on projections of current species ecological niches onto past climatic scenarios. In this study, we utilized ENM to directly and independently reconstruct the Mid‐Holocene distribution of the desert bighorn sheep, using rock art as an alternative source of past distributional information, in order to gain a better understanding of changes in the distribution of this species over the last 6,000 years. Location North American deserts. Taxon Desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ). Methods We used 225 current locality records, eight bioclimatic variables from WorldClim and 57 past locality records based on rock art, in combination with CCSM4 and MIROC‐ESM scenarios for the Mid‐Holocene, to reconstruct via ENM the present and past ecological niches and geographic distribution of the species. For modelling ecological niches, we used Maxent, and the models were evaluated using a partial ROC test. We used a niche similarity test to compare present and past reconstructions, performing niche transfers to measure their inter‐predictability, supported by a previous Mobility Oriented Parity test of climate analogy. Results The performances of the potential distribution models for the Mid‐Holocene and present were statistically significant and describe a recent increase in the species’ distributional areas, suggesting that past conditions were characterized by higher temperatures and lower precipitation, as was corroborated by the niche transfers. The niche similarity test showed no differences between the past and present niches. Main conclusions The models generated from rock art allowed a consistent reconstruction of the ecological niches and present and past distributions of the species. We therefore consider rock art to be a valuable, but hitherto largely ignored, source of information for this species. Analysis of current and past distributions revealed how the species have responded to past climatic changes.
Environmental niche modelling
Species distribution
Macroecology
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Background Biological invasions rank among the most significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. Correlative ecological niche modeling is among the most frequently used tools with which to estimate potential distributions of invasive species. However, when areas accessible to the species across its native distribution do not represent the full spectrum of environmental conditions that the species can tolerate, correlative studies often underestimate fundamental niches. Methods Here, we explore the utility of supraspecific modeling units to improve the predictive ability of models focused on biological invasions. Taking into account phylogenetic relationships in correlative ecological niche models, we studied the invasion patterns of three species (Aedes aegypti, Pterois volitans and Oreochromis mossambicus ). Results Use of supraspecific modeling units improved the predictive ability of correlative niche models in anticipating potential distributions of three invasive species. We demonstrated that integrating data on closely related species allowed a more complete characterization of fundamental niches. This approach could be used to model species with invasive potential but that have not yet invaded new regions.
Correlative
Environmental niche modelling
Species distribution
Oreochromis mossambicus
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Abstract Aim L epus castroviejoi and L epus corsicanus are sister species with allopatric distributions that share extensive phenotypic and genetic variation. Under the framework of niche conservatism, we assessed whether these species have similar ecological niches, which could provide insights into their mode of divergence, conservation, and taxonomic status. Location The distribution range of L. castroviejoi in the northern Iberian Peninsula, and that of L. corsicanus in mainland Italy and Sicily. Methods We developed spatially explicit ecological models to characterize the niches of the two species by modelling them separately and together. Individual models were transferred to the territory of the sister species to explore their niche relationships. Predictions were assessed for discrimination and calibration in a cross‐assessment procedure. Results The model trained with L. castroviejoi was not able to predict the range of L. corsicanus , whereas the model trained with L. corsicanus was able to discriminate the L. castroviejoi distribution better than by chance alone ( AUC = 0.814), although the reliability of the predictions was limited. The model trained with L. corsicanus in Italy's mainland (excluding the range in Sicily), however, discriminated L. castroviejoi presences/absences ( AUC = 0.788) and accurately predicted its probability of occurrence. Furthermore, a well‐calibrated model, which was able to discriminate the species distributions ( L. castroviejoi , AUC = 0.828; L. corsicanus , AUC = 0.956), was obtained when the species were considered together. Main conclusions Our results suggest that L. castroviejoi and L. corsicanus share extensive niche properties, which reinforces their possible conspecific status. The ecological niche of their ancestor may have resembled the present occupied niche of L. corsicanus in mainland Italy, given that this model was able to accurately predict the distribution range of both species. Finally, ecological evidence suggests that niche conservatism may explain the fragmentation in the distribution range of their ancestor, which may have been the driver of the initial stages of divergence.
Environmental niche modelling
Species distribution
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