Nitrogen loss is the main reason for land quality degradation and productivity decline and an important factor in groundwater pollution. Extreme rainfall has occurred frequently in Karst areas of southwest China in recent years. It is of great significance to study the response of soil nitrogen loss to extreme rainfall in Karst areas to prevent and treat land quality degradation and non-point source pollution. In this study, field monitoring and indoor artificial rainfall simulation were used to study the loss characteristics of total soil nitrogen (TN), ammonium (NH4+-N) nitrogen, and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3−-N) in Karst bare slope farmland (slope angles of 5° and 10°) under extreme rainfall conditions. The results showed that: (1) Extreme rainfall (90 mm/h) increased the surface runoff, middle soil runoff, and underground runoff by 1.68 times, 1.16 times, and 1.43 times, respectively, compared with moderate rainfall (60 mm/h), so that nitrogen loss increased with runoff. (2) The loss of nitrate-nitrogen in surface, soil, and underground under extreme rainfall conditions was 223.99, 147.93, and 174.02% higher than that under moderate rainfall conditions, respectively; the nitrate losses were 203.78, 160.18, and 195.39% higher, respectively. Total nitrogen losses were 187.33, 115.45, and 138.68% higher, respectively. (3) The influencing factors of total soil nitrogen and nitrate-nitrogen loss in Karst slope farmland were slope > rainfall duration > rainfall intensity, while the influencing factors of ammonium nitrogen loss were rainfall duration > slope > rainfall intensity. Therefore, in controlling nitrogen loss in Karst slope farmland, changing slope degree and increasing farmland coverage may be useful measures to slow the nitrogen loss caused by extreme rainfall.
This study systematically evaluates the accuracy, trends, and error sources for western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts between 2005 and 2018. The study uses homogeneous samples from tropical cyclone (TC) intensity official forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo-Typhoon Center (RSMC-Tokyo). The TC intensity forecast accuracy performances are as follows: 24–48 h, JTWC > RSMC-Tokyo > CMA; 72 h, JTWC > CMA > RSMC-Tokyo; and 96–120 h, JTWC > CMA. Improvements in TC intensity forecasting are marginal but steady for all three centers. The 24–72 h improvement rate is approximately 1–2 % yr−1. The improvement rates are statistically significant at the 95 % level for almost half of the verification times from 0–120 h. The three centers tend to overestimate weak TCs over the northern South China Sea, but strong TCs are sometimes underestimated over the area east of the Philippines. The three centers generally have higher skill scores associated with forecasting of rapid weakening (RW) events than rapid intensification (RI) events. Overall, the three centers are not skillful in forecasting RI events more than three days in advance. Fortunately, RW events could be forecasted five days in advance with an accuracy order of CMA > RSMC-Tokyo > JTWC.
The growth and overlay of a large number of bryophytes in the broken soil patches between the exposed bedrocks of karst have an essential influence on the infiltration and runoff process between the exposed bedrocks and even the whole rocky desertification area. The purpose of this study is to explore the effects of moss on the infiltration and runoff of soil patches between karst exposed bedrocks and the processes of rainfall, runoff and infiltration transformation on slopes through rainfall experiments. The results showed that the slopes between the karst outcrops are dominated by subsurface and underground pore runoff. More than 50% of precipitation is lost through underground pores, with surface runoff accounting for only 1–17% of the total. Bryophyte overlay significantly reduced the initial runoff from subsurface and underground pore runoff, and advanced the steady-state time of runoff from subsurface and underground pore runoff, suggesting that bryophyte coverage may reduce the risk of soil erosion caused by short-duration rainfall. Eurohypnum has a significant inhibitory effect on percolation between exposed bedrock and reduces rainfall leakage from subsurface and underground pores. Thuidium has a strong intercepting effect on rainfall, significantly reducing the formation of surface runoff and the risk of surface soil erosion. Moss overlay has an essential role in soil and water conservation between karst exposed bedrock, and Eurohypnum and Thuidium can be considered as pioneer mosses for ecological restoration in the process of rocky desertification control and ecological restoration, which can effectively solve the serious problem of soil and water loss in karst rocky desertification area and improve the benefit of soil and water conservation in karst area.
Abstract Official forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks issued by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA); the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Tokyo, Japan; and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) were used to evaluate the accuracies, biases, and trends of TC track forecasts during 2005–14 over the western North Pacific. Overall, the JTWC demonstrated the best forecasting performance. However, the CMA showed the most significant rate of improvement. Two main zones were discovered in the regional distribution of forecast errors: a low-latitude zone that comprises the South China Sea and the sea region east of the Philippines, and a midlatitude zone comprising the southern Sea of Japan and the sea region east of Japan. When TCs moved into the former zone, there were both translational speed and direction biases in the forecast tracks, whereas slow biases were predominated in the latter zone. Twelve synoptic flow patterns of TCs with the largest error have been identified based on the steering flow theory. Among them, the most two common pattern are the pattern with the combination of cyclonic circulations, subtropical ridges, and midlatitude troughs (CRT, 26 TCs), and the pattern of the TCs’ track that cannot be explained by steering flow (NSF, 6 TCs). In the CRT pattern, TCs move northwestward forced by the cyclonic circulations and the subtropical ridges and then turn poleward and eastward under the influence of the midlatitude troughs. In the NSF pattern, storms embedded in the southwest flow by the cyclonic circulation and the steering flow suggest TCs should turn to the right and move northeastward but instead TCs persisted in moving northwestward.
'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' transform='rotate(23.036 .093 25.536)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' transform='rotate(45.87 1.273 16.18)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' transform='rotate(69.945 .996 12.078)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' transform='rotate(20.66 -19.689 31.932)'/%3e%3c/svg%3e)