Abstract Hazard analysis at caldera volcanoes is challenging due to the wide range of eruptive and environmental conditions that can plausibly occur during renewed activity. Taupo volcano, New Zealand, is a frequently active and productive rhyolitic caldera volcano that has hosted the world's youngest known supereruption and numerous smaller explosive events. To assess ashfall hazard from future eruptions, we have simulated atmospheric ash dispersal using the Ash3d model. We consider five eruption scenarios spanning magma volumes of 0.1–500 km 3 and investigate the main factors governing ash dispersal in modern atmospheric conditions. Our results are examined in the context of regional synoptic weather patterns (Kidson types) that provide a framework for assessing the variability of ashfall distribution in different wind fields. For the smallest eruptions (~0.1‐km 3 magma), ashfall thicknesses >1 cm are largely confined to the central North Island, with dispersal controlled by day‐to‐day weather and the dominance of westerly winds. With increasing eruptive volume (1–5‐km 3 magma), ashfall thicknesses >1 cm would likely reach major population centers throughout the North Island. Dispersal is less dependent on weather patterns as the formation of a radially expanding umbrella cloud forces ash upwind or crosswind, although strong stratospheric winds significantly restrict umbrella spreading. For large eruptions (50–500‐km 3 magma), powerful expansion of the umbrella cloud results in widespread ashfall at damaging thicknesses (>10 cm) across most of the North Island and top of the South Island. Synoptic climatology may prove a useful additional technique for long‐term hazard planning at caldera volcanoes.
Probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis is becoming an increasingly popular component of volcanic risk reduction strategies worldwide. While probabilistic hazard analyses offer many advantages for decision-making, displaying the statistical results of these analyses on a map presents new hazard communication challenges. Probabilistic information is complex, difficult to interpret, and associated with uncertainties. Conveying such complicated data on a static map image without careful consideration of user perspectives or context, may result in contrasting interpretations, misunderstandings, or aversion to using the map. Here, we present the results of interviews and surveys conducted with organisational stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand which explored how probabilistic volcanic hazard map properties influence map interpretation, understanding, and preference. Our results suggest that data classification, colour scheme, content, and key expression play important roles in how users engage with and interpret probabilistic volcanic hazard maps. Data classification was found to influence the participants' perceived uncertainty and data reading accuracy, with isarithmic style maps reducing uncertainty and increasing accuracy best. Colour scheme had a strong influence on the type of hazard messages interpreted, with a red-yellow scheme conveying the message of a hazard distribution (high to low), and a red-yellow-blue scheme conveying the message of hazard state (present or absent) and/or risk. Multiple types of map content were found to be useful, and hazard curves were viewed as valuable supplements. The concept of "confidence" was more easily interpreted than upper and lower percentiles when expressing uncertainty on the hazard curves. Numerical and verbal expression in the key also had an influence on interpretation, with a combination of both a percent (e.g., 25%) and a natural frequency (e.g., 1 in 4) "probability" being the most inclusive and widely-understood expression. The importance of these map property choices was underscored by a high portion of participants preferring to receive maps in unalterable formats, such as PDF. This study illustrates how engaging with users in a bottom-up approach can complement and enhance top-down approaches to volcanic hazard mapping through a collaborative and integrative design process which may help to prevent miscommunications in a future crisis when maps are likely to be drafted and disseminated rapidly.
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