John M. Reilly

Joint Global Change Research Institute

Author Statistics

Papers

Citation

H-Index

i-10 index

Research Trends

Author Order

Document Type

Co-Authors

Sergey Paltsev

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Andrei Sokolov

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Marcus C. Sarofim

Environmental Protection Agency

Jerry M. Melillo

Marine Biological Laboratory

Henry D. Jacoby

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

David W. Kicklighter

Marine Biological Laboratory

Ronald G. Prinn

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Mort Webster

Pennsylvania State University

Qianlai Zhuang

Purdue University West Lafayette

Mustafa Babiker

Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia)

Cooperative Institutions

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Joint Global Change Research Institute

Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology

Engineering Systems (United States)

Chinese Academy of Sciences

Pennsylvania State University

Marine Biological Laboratory

Auburn University

Lehigh University

IIT@MIT

Author Statistics

Papers

Citation

H-Index

i-10 index

Research Field

An empirical study of the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture

Climatic Change (1992)

Sally Kane John M. Reilly James A. Tobey

Consumption

10.1007/bf00143251

Cite

Citations (151)

Global energy production and use to the year 2050

Energy (1983)

Jae Edmonds John M. Reilly

Forms of energy

10.1016/0360-5442(83)90064-6

Cite

Citations (43)

The hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty

Energy Policy (2010)

Mort Webster Sergey Paltsev John M. Reilly

Hedge

Value (mathematics)

10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.054

Cite

Citations (25)

Changes of land cover and land use and greenhouse gas emissions in northern Eurasia (Abstract)

EGUGA (2009)

Qianlai Zhuang Jerry M. Melillo John M. Reilly A. D. McGuire R. Prinn

(1) Purdue University, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences and Agronomy, West Lafayette, United States (qzhuang@purdue.edu), (2) Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, (3) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, (4) University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, (5) International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (6) V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, (7) Institute of Forest Sciences, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow Region, Russia, (8) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, (9) Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia, (10) Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Source

Cite

Citations (1)

Regulatory control of vehicle and power plant emissions: how effective and at what cost?

Climate Policy (2014)

Sergey Paltsev Valerie J. Karplus Y.-H. Henry Chen Ioanna Karkatsouli John M. Reilly

Passenger vehicles and power plants are major sources of GHG emissions. While economic analyses generally indicate that a broader market-based approach to GHG reduction would be less costly and more effective, regulatory approaches have found greater political success. We evaluate a global regulatory regime that replaces coal with natural gas in the electricity sector and imposes technically achievable improvements in the efficiency of personal transport vehicles. Its performance and cost are compared with other scenarios of future policy development including a no-policy world, achievements under the Copenhagen Accord, and a price-based policy to reduce global emissions by 50% by 2050. The assumed regulations applied globally achieve a global emissions reduction larger than projected for the Copenhagen agreements, but they do not prevent global GHG emissions from continuing to grow. The reduction in emissions is achieved at a high cost compared to a price-based policy. Diagnosis of the reasons for the limited yet high-cost performance reveals influences including the partial coverage of emitting sectors, small or no influence on the demand for emissions-intensive products, leakage when a reduction in fossil use in the covered sectors lowers the price to others, and the partial coverage of GHGs. If these regulatory measures are in part correcting other barriers or behavioural limitations consumers face, the benefits of overcoming these could offset at least some of the costs we estimate. The extent of any efficiency gap – the difference between engineering estimates of best practice and what actually happens – is highly contested, and offers an important avenue for future research.Policy relevanceWhile analysts concerned with national cost of GHG control have long advocated a GHG pricing policy, by a cap-and-trade system or a tax, covering all emissions sources and gases, governments more often pursue sectoral policies and technology standards. Given these political realities, the regulations represent a more politically practical approach to GHG reductions, focusing on solutions that are within reach and that do not depend on technological breakthroughs. If regulations are imposed as a way to get started on larger emissions reductions, and then combined with a broader GHG pricing policy pursuing a deep global cut in emissions, its requirements will eventually be overtaken by the pricing policy. The remaining higher costs of the regulatory targets become diluted so that in later years the difference in average cost per ton between a least-cost approach and one preceded by a period of regulatory action becomes very small.

Partial equilibrium

Carbon leakage

10.1080/14693062.2014.937386

Cite

Citations (13)

Is International Emissions Trading Always Beneficial?

The Energy Journal (2004)

Mustafa Babiker John M. Reilly Laurent Viguier

Economic efficiency is a major argument for international emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol. We show that permit trading can be welfare decreasing for countries, even though private trading parties benefit. The result is a case of “immiserizing” growth in the sense of Bhagwati where the negative terms of trade and tax interaction effects wipe out the gains from trading. Simulation and welfare decomposition results based on a CGE model of the global economy show that under EU-wide trading countries that are net permit sellers generally lose, due primarily to the existence of distortionary energy taxes.

Argument (complex analysis)

10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol25-no2-2

Cite

Citations (122)

The Role of Non-CO2 GHGs in Climate Policy: Analysis Using the MIT IGSM

The Energy Journal (2006)

John M. Reilly Marcus C. Sarofim Sergey Paltsev Ronald G. Prinn

First steps toward a broad climate agreement, such as the Kyoto Protocol, have focused on less than global geographic coverage. We consider instead a policy that is less comprehensive in term of greenhouse gases (GHGs), including only the non-CO2 GHGs, but is geographically comprehensive. Abating non-CO2 GHGs may be seen as less of a threat to economic development and therefore it may be possible to involve developing countries in such a policy even though they have resisted limits on CO2 emissions. The policy we consider involves a GHG price of about $15 per ton carbon-equivalent (tce) levied only on the non-CO2 GHGs and held at that level through the century. We estimate that such a policy would reduce the global mean surface temperature in 2100 by about 0.55° C; if only methane is covered that alone would achieve a reduction of 0.3° to 0.4° C. We estimate the Kyoto Protocol in its current form would achieve a 0.25° C reduction in 2100 if Parties to it maintained it as is through the century. Furthermore, we estimate the costs of the non-CO2 policies to be a small fraction of the Kyoto policy. Whether as a next step to expand the Kyoto Protocol, or as a separate initiative running parallel to it, the world could well make substantial progress on limiting climate change by pursuing an agreement to abate the low cost non-CO2 GHGs. The results suggest that it would be useful to proceed on global abatement of non-CO2 GHGs so that lack of progress on negotiations to limit CO2 does not allow these abatement opportunities to slip away.

Limiting

Carbon tax

Baseline (sea)

10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-volsi2006-nosi3-26

Cite

Citations (30)

Land carbon sequestration within the conterminous United States: Regional‐ and state‐level analyses

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences (2015)

Xiaoliang Lü David W. Kicklighter Jerry M. Melillo John M. Reilly Liyi Xu

Abstract A quantitative understanding of the rate at which land ecosystems are sequestering or losing carbon at national‐, regional‐, and state‐level scales is needed to develop policies to mitigate climate change. In this study, a new improved historical land use and land cover change data set is developed and combined with a process‐based ecosystem model to estimate carbon sources and sinks in land ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the contemporary period of 2001–2005 and over the last three centuries. We estimate that land ecosystems in the conterminous United States sequestered 323 Tg C yr −1 at the beginning of the 21st century with forests accounting for 97% of this sink. This land carbon sink varied substantially across the conterminous United States, with the largest sinks occurring in the Southeast. Land sinks are large enough to completely compensate fossil fuel emissions in Maine and Mississippi, but nationally, carbon sinks compensate for only 20% of U.S. fossil fuel emissions. We find that regions that are currently large carbon sinks (e.g., Southeast) tend to have been large carbon sources over the longer historical period. Both the land use history and fate of harvested products can be important in determining a region's overall impact on the atmospheric carbon budget. While there are numerous options for reducing fossil fuels (e.g., increase efficiency and displacement by renewable resources), new land management opportunities for sequestering carbon need to be explored. Opportunities include reforestation and managing forest age structure. These opportunities will vary from state to state and over time across the United States.

Carbon sink

Reforestation

Atmospheric carbon cycle

Sink (geography)

10.1002/2014jg002818

Cite

Citations (40)

Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone

Energy Policy (2007)

John M. Reilly Sergey Paltsev B. S. Felzer X. Wang David W. Kicklighter

Tropospheric ozone

10.1016/j.enpol.2006.01.040