An extended drought period with low precipitation can result in low water availability and issues for humans, animals, and plants. Drought forecasting is critical for water resource development and management as it helps to reduce negative consequences. In this study, scientometric analysis and manual comprehensive analysis on drought modelling and forecasting are used. A scientometric analysis is used to determine the current research trend using bibliometric data and to identify relevant publication field sources with the most publications, the most frequently used keywords, the most cited articles and authors, and the countries that have made the greatest contributions to the field of water resources. This paper also tries to provide an overview of water issues, such as drought classification, drought indices, historical droughts, and their impact on Asian countries such as China, Pakistan, India, and Iran. There have been many models established for this purpose and choosing the appropriate model for study is a long procedure for researchers. An appropriate, comprehensive, pedagogical study of model ideas and historical implementations would benefit researchers by helping them to avoid overlooking viable model options, thus reducing their time spent on the topic. As a result, the goal of this paper is to review drought-forecasting approaches and recommend the best models for the Asian region. The models are divided into four categories based on their mechanisms: Regression analysis, stochastic modelling, machine learning, and dynamic modelling. The basic concepts of each approach in terms of the model’s historical use, benefits, and limitations are explained. Finally, prospects for future drought research in Asia are discussed as well as potential modelling techniques.
Clouds are significant in the global radiation budget, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. However, knowledge regarding the observed climatology of the cloud vertical structure (CVS) over Beijing is still poor. Based on high-resolution radiosonde observations at Beijing Nanjiao Weather Observatory (BNWO) during the period 2010–2017, the method for identifying CVS depending on height-resolved relative humidity thresholds is improved, and CVS estimation by radiosonde is compared with observations by millimeter-wave cloud radar and ceilometer at the same site. Good consistency is shown between the three instruments. Then, the CVS climatology, including the frequency distribution and seasonal variation, is investigated. Overall, the occurrence frequency (OF) of cloudy cases in Beijing is slightly higher than that of clear-sky cases, and the cloud OF is highest in summer and lowest in winter. Single-layer clouds and middle-level clouds are dominant in Beijing. In addition, the average cloud top height (CTH), cloud base height (CBH), and cloud thickness in Beijing are 6.2 km, 4.0 km, and 2.2 km, respectively, and show the trend of reaching peaks in spring and minimums in winter. In terms of frequency distribution, the CTH basically resides below an altitude of 16 km, and approximately 43% of the CBHs are located at altitudes of 0.5–1.5 km. The cloud OF has only one peak located at altitudes of 4–8 km in spring, whereas it shows a trimodal distribution in other seasons. The height at which the cloud OF reaches its peak is highest in summer and lowest in winter. To the best of our knowledge, the cloud properties analyzed here are the first to elucidate the distribution and temporal variation of the CVS in Beijing from a long-term sounding perspective, and these results will provide a scientific observation basis for improving the atmospheric circulation model, as well as comparisons and verifications for measurements by ground-based remote sensing equipment.
Atmospheric compositions and acid rain are closely related to atmospheric environment, weather, and climate change. In this study, the concentration levels and long-term trends of CO2, CH4, O3, PM2.5, PM10, and acid rain were presented at the Mt. Waliguan global baseline station in Qinghai, Shangdianzi and Lin'an regional background stations in the North China Plain (NCP) and the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) of China based on the data observed until 2018. Significant increasing trends of CO2 were found at all of these stations. At Mt. Waliguan, the concentration levels and growth rate were consistent with the average values in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and those observed at the Mauna Loa station in Hawaii. The CH4 also showed a upward tendency similar to that observed in NH. Compared with the observations at Mt. Waliguan global baseline station, the CO2 and CH4 mole fractions were higher at Shangdianzi and Lin'an regional background stations, indicating the important contributions of anthropogenic activities to the regional background level of CO2 and CH4. The annual averaged surface ozone showed increasing trends at Mt. Waliguan and Shangdianzi stations, whereas no clear trend was found at Lin'an station. Similar variations in the patterns of aerosol concentrations at Shangdianzi and Lin'an were found according to the PM2.5 or PM10 observations. Overall, the aerosol concentrations at both stations shown declining trends since the observations. However, two periods of high particle concentrations occurred in 2006–2007 and 2013–2014. The annual mean aerosol concentrations have continuously decreased after 2013–2014, indicating the effectiveness of pollution control in the NCP and YRD, especially since the implementation of the 'Action Plan for Prevention and Control of Air Pollution' in September 2013. Comparative analysis of aerosol with acid rain showed that the period with high concentrations of aerosols in the early years was consistent with that of severe acid rain pollution, suggesting that both aerosol pollution and severe acid rain are closely related to coal combustion emissions in China. As a result of the control of coal combustion emissions for acid and SO2, NOx emissions have contributed more substantially to aerosols due to the rapid growth of vehicle ownership. A comparison of the trends of aerosols with the maximum daily 8-h average of surface ozone (MDA8) at Shangdianzi and Lin'an stations revealed the complicated relationship between aerosol reduction and ozone production, i.e., together with the continuous improvement of particulate pollution in the NCP and YRD, the MDA8 at both stations showed a decreasing trend at first but subsequently increased after 2014 with aerosols remaining reduced. Such different variation patterns of the MDA8 with PM2.5 (or PM10) indicated the high challenge of synergic control of aerosol and ozone pollution in China.
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