Jörn Davidsen

University of Calgary

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Jordi Baró

Universitat de Barcelona

David W. Eaton

University of Calgary

Georg Dresen

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Grzegorz Kwiatek

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Thomas Goebel

University of Memphis

Kamran Karimi

National Centre for Nuclear Research

Omid Khajehdehi

University of Calgary

Maya Paczuski

University of Calgary

Sergei Stanchits

Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology

Patricia Martínez‐Garzón

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Cooperative Institutions

University of Calgary

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Universitat de Barcelona

Alberta Children's Hospital

University of Potsdam

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Allen Institute for Brain Science

Freie Universität Berlin

University of California, San Diego

University of British Columbia

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Interevent Triggering in Microseismicity Induced by Hydraulic Fracturing

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018)

Samira Maghsoudi Jordi Baró Alana Kent David W. Eaton Jörn Davidsen

Research Article| May 01, 2018 Interevent Triggering in Microseismicity Induced by Hydraulic Fracturing Samira Maghsoudi; Samira Maghsoudi aComplexity Science Group, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2N 1N4, davidsen@phas.ucalgary.cacAlso at Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2N 1N4. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Jordi Baró; Jordi Baró aComplexity Science Group, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2N 1N4, davidsen@phas.ucalgary.ca Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Alana Kent; Alana Kent bDepartment of Geoscience, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2N 1N4 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar David Eaton; David Eaton bDepartment of Geoscience, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2N 1N4 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Jörn Davidsen Jörn Davidsen aComplexity Science Group, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2N 1N4, davidsen@phas.ucalgary.ca Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (3A): 1133–1146. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170368 Article history first online: 01 May 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Samira Maghsoudi, Jordi Baró, Alana Kent, David Eaton, Jörn Davidsen; Interevent Triggering in Microseismicity Induced by Hydraulic Fracturing. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2018;; 108 (3A): 1133–1146. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170368 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search nav search search input Search input auto suggest search filter All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Permeability enhancing treatments such as hydraulic fracturing (HF) induce microseismic events with typical magnitudes in the −3.0 to −0.5 range, although significantly larger induced earthquakes up to 4.7 in moment magnitude have been reported. Diffusion of pore pressure away from the hydraulic fracture system is thought to be a primary controlling mechanism. Understanding other primary or secondary triggering mechanisms during HF is expected to furnish new insights regarding stress, strength of faults, and rupture initiation and propagation. Using novel methods from statistical seismology, we present evidence for the existence of event–event triggering cascades in microseismicity induced by HF. Although background seismicity dominates, we find that these triggering cascades exhibit features that also characterize tectonic aftershock sequences such as the empirical Omori–Utsu relation and the productivity relation. This suggests that the underlying physical earthquake–earthquake triggering mechanisms are similar in both cases, as also observed for other earthquake swarms. The presence of triggering cascades is of direct relevance for optimizing the effectiveness of the stimulation. You do not currently have access to this article.

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10.1785/0120170368

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Citations (22)

Static stress triggering explains the empirical aftershock distance decay

Geophysical Research Letters (2014)

Sebastian Hainzl Javad Moradpour Jörn Davidsen

Abstract The shape of the spatial aftershock decay is sensitive to the triggering mechanism and thus particularly useful for discriminating between static and dynamic stress triggering. For California seismicity, it has been recently recognized that its form is more complicated than typically assumed consisting of three different regimes with transitions at the scale of the rupture length and the thickness of the crust. The intermediate distance range is characterized by a relative small decay exponent of 1.35 previously declared to relate to dynamic stress triggering. We perform comprehensive simulations of a simple clock‐advance model, in which the number of aftershocks is just proportional to the Coulomb‐stress change, to test whether the empirical result can be explained by static stress triggering. Similarly to the observations, the results show three scaling regimes. For simulations adapted to the depths and focal mechanisms observed in California, we find a remarkable agreement with the observation over the whole distance range for a fault distribution with fractal dimension of 1.8, which is shown to be in good agreement with an independent analysis of California seismicity.

Exponent

10.1002/2014gl061975

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Citations (25)

Magnitude correlations in a self-similar aftershock rates model of seismicity

Andres F. Zambrano Moreno Jörn Davidsen

Abstract. Crucial to the development of earthquake forecasting schemes is the manifestation of spatiotemporal correlations between earthquakes as highlighted, for example, by the notion of aftershocks. Here, we present an analysis of the statistical relation between subsequent magnitudes for a recently proposed self-similar aftershock rates model of seismicity, whose main distinguishing feature is that of interdependence between trigger and triggered events in terms of a time-varying frequency magnitude distribution. By means of a particular statistical measure, we study the level of magnitude correlations under specific types of time conditioning, explain their provenance within the model framework and show that the type of null model chosen in the analysis plays a pivotal role in the type and strength of observed correlations. Specifically, we show that while the variations in the magnitude distribution can give rise to large trivial correlations between subsequent magnitudes, the non-trivial magnitude correlations are rather minimal. Simulations mimicking Southern California show that these non-trivial correlations cannot be observed at the 3σ-level at the current level of completeness. We conclude that only the time variations in the frequency-magnitude distribution might lead to significant improvements in earthquake forecasting.

10.5194/npg-2019-19

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Self-organization and time-stability of social hierarchies

PLoS ONE (2019)

Joseph V. Hickey Jörn Davidsen

The formation and stability of social hierarchies is a question of general relevance. Here, we propose a simple generalized theoretical model for establishing social hierarchy via pair-wise interactions between individuals and investigate its stability. In each interaction or fight, the probability of "winning" depends solely on the relative societal status of the participants, and the winner has a gain of status whereas there is an equal loss to the loser. The interactions are characterized by two parameters. The first parameter represents how much can be lost, and the second parameter represents the degree to which even a small difference of status can guarantee a win for the higher-status individual. Depending on the parameters, the resulting status distributions reach either a continuous unimodal form or lead to a totalitarian end state with one high-status individual and all other individuals having status approaching zero. However, we find that in the latter case long-lived intermediary distributions often exist, which can give the illusion of a stable society. As we show, our model allows us to make predictions consistent with animal interaction data and their evolution over a number of years. Moreover, by implementing a simple, but realistic rule that restricts interactions to sufficiently similar-status individuals, the stable or long-lived distributions acquire high-status structure corresponding to a distinct high-status class. Using household income as a proxy for societal status in human societies, we find agreement over their entire range from the low-to-middle-status parts to the characteristic high-status "tail". We discuss how the model provides a conceptual framework for understanding the origin of social hierarchy and the factors which lead to the preservation or deterioration of the societal structure.

Social status

Proxy (statistics)

Social Stratification

10.1371/journal.pone.0211403

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Citations (11)

Limited earthquake interaction during a geothermal hydraulic stimulation in Helsinki, Finland

Grzegorz Kwiatek Patricia Martínez‐Garzón Jörn Davidsen P. E. Malin Aino Karjalainen

Earth and Space Science Open Archive This preprint has been submitted to and is under consideration at Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth. ESSOAr is a venue for early communication or feedback before peer review. Data may be preliminary.Learn more about preprints preprintOpen AccessYou are viewing the latest version by default [v1]Limited earthquake interaction during a geothermal hydraulic stimulation in Helsinki, FinlandAuthorsGrzegorzKwiatekiDPatriciaMartínez-GarzónJörnDavidseniDPeter EricMaliniDAinoKarjalaineniDMarcoBohnhoffiDGeorgDresenSee all authors Grzegorz KwiatekiDCorresponding Author• Submitting AuthorHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1076-615Xview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressPatricia Martínez-GarzónHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research for Geosciencesview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressJörn DavidseniDUniversity of CalgaryiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8103-4442view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressPeter Eric MaliniDAdvanced Seismic Instrumentation & ResearchiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5315-9731view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressAino KarjalaineniDSt1 OyiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3279-2239view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressMarco BohnhoffiDHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7383-635Xview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressGeorg DresenGFZ Potsdamview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email address

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10.1002/essoar.10510897.1

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Physics-informed deep learning to forecast $${\widehat{{\varvec{M}}}}_{{\varvec{m}}{\varvec{a}}{\varvec{x}}}$$ during hydraulic fracturing

Scientific Reports (2023)

Ziyan Li David W. Eaton Jörn Davidsen

Short-term forecasting of estimated maximum magnitude ([Formula: see text]) is crucial to mitigate risks of induced seismicity during fluid stimulation. Most previous methods require real-time injection data, which are not always available. This study proposes two deep learning (DL) approaches, along with two data-partitioning methods, that rely solely on preceding patterns of seismicity. The first approach forecasts [Formula: see text] directly using DL; the second incorporates physical constraints by using DL to forecast seismicity rate, which is then used to estimate [Formula: see text]. These approaches are tested using a hydraulic-fracture monitoring dataset from western Canada. We find that direct DL learns from previous seismicity patterns to provide an accurate forecast, albeit with a time lag that limits its practical utility. The physics-informed approach accurately forecasts changes in seismicity rate, but sometimes under- (or over-) estimates [Formula: see text]. We propose that significant exceedance of [Formula: see text] may herald the onset of runaway fault rupture.

Earthquake prediction

10.1038/s41598-023-40403-2

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Citations (1)

Dynamics of social networks

Complexity (2002)

Holger Ebel Jörn Davidsen Stefan Bornholdt

Abstract Complex networks such as the World Wide Web, the web of human sexual contacts, or criminal networks often do not have an engineered architecture but instead are self‐organized by the actions of a large number of individuals. From these local interactions nontrivial global phenomena can emerge as small‐world properties or scale‐free degree distributions. A simple model for the evolution of acquaintance networks highlights the essential dynamical ingredients necessary to obtain such complex network structures. The model generates highly clustered networks with small average path lengths and scale‐free as well as exponential degree distributions. It compares well with experimental data of social networks, as for example, coauthorship networks in high energy physics. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evolving networks

Small-world network

Degree distribution

Degree (music)

Scale-free network

Preferential attachment

Human dynamics

10.1002/cplx.10066

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Citations (126)

Short-term forecasting of Mmax during hydraulic fracturing

Scientific Reports (2022)

Ziyan Li David W. Eaton Jörn Davidsen

Abstract Previous studies of injection-induced earthquake sequences have shown that the maximum magnitude ( M max ) of injection-induced seismicity increases with the net injected volume ( V ); however, different proposed seismic-hazard paradigms predict significantly different values of M max . Using injection and seismicity data from two project areas in northeastern British Columbia, Canada, where hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity was observed, we test the predictive power and robustness of three existing and one novel method to estimate M max . Due to their vastly different values of seismogenic index (Σ), these two project areas represent end-member cases of seismogenic response. Our novel method progressively adjusts the M max forecast under the assumption that each recorded event embodies an incremental release of fluid-induced stress. The results indicate that our method typically provides the lowest upper bound of the tested methods and it is less sensitive to site-specific calibration parameters such as Σ. This makes the novel method appealing for operational earthquake forecasting schemes as a real-time mitigation strategy to manage the risks of induced seismicity.

Maximum magnitude

Earthquake prediction

Robustness

10.1038/s41598-022-15365-6

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Citations (9)

Separating Primary and Secondary Mechanisms for Seismicity Induced by Hydraulic Fracturing

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2023)

Kamran Karimi Jörn Davidsen

ABSTRACT Hydraulic fracturing operations are generally associated with induced seismic events with magnitudes that are typically lower than those of tectonic-based earthquakes. Although fluid migration and the resulting pore-pressure increase appear to be the primary driving mechanisms, one must also understand fault activation and the secondary interevent triggering process(es) leading to the generation of aftershock sequences. This requires distinguishing between seismic events that are a direct consequence of fluid injections and those that predominantly arise because of secondary mechanisms such as static or dynamic stress triggering caused by preceding earthquakes. Focusing on a case study in the Montney area in western Alberta, Canada, where both surface array and borehole geophone data are available, we (1) establish the importance of secondary mechanisms and aftershock sequences in this area and (2) show that the statistical properties of the aftershock sequences can allow one to establish whether significant fault activation is at play and whether the activated fault zone was critically prestressed. Specifically, we find evidence for aftershock sequences using different statistical methodologies, although the presence of aftershocks in the studied hydraulic-fracturing-induced context is significantly less dominant compared with tectonic seismicity. The identified aftershock sequences are characterized by long-range spatial aftershock zones, setting them apart from other cases in fluid-driven settings but comparable to tectonic aftershock sequences and indicative of fault activation. Despite this observation, we find overall a strong dominance of smaller triggers for aftershock sequences and an aftershock production associated with large-magnitude events that is significantly lower than what has been observed in tectonic settings. This suggests that the activated fault zone as a whole was not critically prestressed, and the associated initial seismic hazard was significantly lower compared with tectonic cases.

Microseism

10.1785/0120220200

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Citations (5)

Are seismic waiting time distributions universal?

Geophysical Research Letters (2004)

Jörn Davidsen Christian Goltz

We show that seismic waiting time distributions in California and Iceland have many features in common as, for example, a power‐law decay with exponent α ≈ 1.1 for intermediate and with exponent γ ≈ 0.6 for short waiting times. While the transition point between these two regimes scales proportionally with the size of the considered area, the full distribution is not universal and depends in a non‐trivial way on the geological area under consideration and its size. This is due to the spatial distribution of epicenters which does not form a simple mono‐fractal. Yet, the dependence of the waiting time distributions on the threshold magnitude seems to be universal.

10.1029/2004gl020892

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Citations (122)