Ambient and household air pollution are found to lead to premature deaths from all-cause or cause-specific death. The national lockdown measures in China during COVID-19 were found to lead to abrupt changes in ambient surface air quality, but indoor air quality changes were neglected. In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of lockdown measures on both ambient and household air pollution as well as the short-term health effects of air pollution changes. In this study, an up-to-date emission inventory from January to March 2020 in China was developed based on air quality observations in combination with emission-concentration response functions derived from chemical transport modeling. These emission inventories, together with the emissions data from 2017 to 2019, were fed into the state-of-the-art regional chemistry transport model to simulate the air quality in the North China Plain. A hypothetical scenario assuming no lockdown effects in 2020 was also performed to determine the effects of the lockdown on air quality in 2020. A difference-to-difference approach was adopted to isolate the effects on air quality due to meteorological conditions and long-term decreasing emission trends by comparing the PM2.5 changes during lockdown to those before lockdown in 2020 and in previous years (2017–2019). The short-term premature mortality changes from both ambient and household PM2.5 changes were quantified based on two recent epidemiological studies, with uncertainty of urban and rural population migration considerations. The national lockdown measures during COVID-19 led to a reduction of 5.1 µg m−3 in ambient PM2.5 across the North China Plain (NCP) from January 25th to March 5th compared with the hypothetical simulation with no lockdown measures. However, a difference-to-difference method showed that the daily domain average PM2.5 in the NCP decreased by 9.7 µg m−3 between lockdown periods before lockdown in 2020, while it decreased by 7.9 µg m−3 during the same periods for the previous three-year average from 2017 to 2019, demonstrating that lockdown measures may only have caused a 1.8 µg m−3 decrease in the NCP. We then found that the integrated population-weighted PM2.5, including both ambient and indoor PM2.5 exposure, increased by 5.1 µg m−3 during the lockdown periods compared to the hypothetical scenario, leading to additional premature deaths of 609 (95% CI: 415–775) to 2,860 (95% CI: 1,436–4,273) in the short term, depending on the relative risk chosen from the epidemiological studies. Our study indicates that lockdown measures in China led to abrupt reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentration but also led to significant increases in indoor PM2.5 exposure due to confined indoor activities and increased usages of household fuel for cooking and heating. We estimated that hundreds of premature deaths were added as a combination of decreased ambient PM2.5 and increased household PM2.5. Our findings suggest that the reduction in ambient PM2.5 was negated by increased exposure to household air pollution, resulting in an overall increase in integrated population weighted exposure. Although lockdown measures were instrumental in reducing the exposure to pollution concentration in cities, rural areas bore the brunt, mainly due to the use of dirty solid fuels, increased population density due to the large-scale migration of people from urban to rural areas during the Chinese New Year and long exposure time to HAP due to restrictions in outdoor movement.
Abstract. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995–2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4, 34.0, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64 and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective Catalytic Reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020, and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the impact of key factors on future emissions.
Abstract. Comprehensive field measurements are needed to understand the mercury emissions from Chinese power plants and to improve the accuracy of emission inventories. Characterization of mercury emissions and their behavior were measured in six typical coal-fired power plants in China. During the tests, the flue gas was sampled simultaneously at inlet and outlet of Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR), electrostatic precipitators (ESP), and flue gas desulfurization (FGD) using the Ontario Hydro Method (OHM). The pulverized coal, bottom ash, fly ash and gypsum were also sampled in the field. Mercury concentrations in coal burned in the measured power plants ranged from 17 to 385 μg/kg. The mercury mass balances for the six power plants varied from 87 to 116% of the input coal mercury for the whole system. The total mercury concentrations in the flue gas from boilers were at the range of 1.92–27.15 μg/m3, which were significantly related to the mercury contents in burned coal. The mercury speciation in flue gas right after the boiler is influenced by the contents of halogen, mercury, and ash in the burned coal. The average mercury removal efficiencies of ESP, ESP plus wet FGD, and ESP plus dry FGD-FF systems were 24%, 73% and 66%, respectively, which were similar to the average removal efficiencies of pollution control device systems in other countries such as US, Japan and South Korea. The SCR system oxidized 16% elemental mercury and reduced about 32% of total mercury. Elemental mercury, accounting for 66–94% of total mercury, was the dominant species emitted to the atmosphere. The mercury emission factor was also calculated for each power plant.
Abstract. High concentration of fine particles (PM2.5), the primary concern about air quality in China, is believed to closely relate to China's large consumption of coal. In order to quantitatively identify the contributions of coal combustion in different sectors to ambient PM2. 5, we developed an emission inventory for the year 2013 using up-to-date information on energy consumption and emission controls, and we conducted standard and sensitivity simulations using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. According to the simulation, coal combustion contributes 22 µg m−3 (40 %) to the total PM2. 5 concentration at national level (averaged in 74 major cities) and up to 37 µg m−3 (50 %) in the Sichuan Basin. Among major coal-burning sectors, industrial coal burning is the dominant contributor, with a national average contribution of 10 µg m−3 (17 %), followed by coal combustion in power plants and the domestic sector. The national average contribution due to coal combustion is estimated to be 18 µg m−3 (46 %) in summer and 28 µg m−3 (35 %) in winter. While the contribution of domestic coal burning shows an obvious reduction from winter to summer, contributions of coal combustion in power plants and the industrial sector remain at relatively constant levels throughout the year.
In January 2013, a severe regional haze occurred over the North China Plain. An online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model was employed to simulate the impacts of aerosol–meteorology interactions on fine particles (PM2.5) pollution during this haze episode. The response of PM2.5 to meteorology change constituted a feedback loop whereby planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics amplified the initial perturbation of PM2.5. High PM2.5 concentrations caused a decrease of surface solar radiation. The maximal decrease in daily average solar radiation reached 53% in Beijing, thereby leading to a more stable PBL. The peak PBL height in Beijing decreased from 690 m to 590 m when the aerosol extinction was considered. Enhanced PBL stability suppressed the dispersion of air pollutants, and resulted in higher PM2.5 concentrations. The maximal increase of PM2.5 concentrations reached 140 μg m−3 in Beijing. During most PM2.5 episodes, primary and secondary particles increased simultaneously. These results imply that the aerosol–radiation interactions played an important role in the haze episode in January 2013.
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