Abstract Climate change may increase precipitation, temperatures, and pollution loading and necessitate additional measures and costs to achieve water quality goals. We used two climate change models and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models (Ensemble Mean), a yield prediction model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool‐Variable Source Area), and a farm economic model to estimate how climate change would affect yields and the costs of reducing nitrogen (N) loading in an agricultural subbasin of the Chesapeake Bay. We estimated costs of meeting water quality goals based on the reduction in farm net returns from limits on N loadings under historical and future climate scenarios. Estimated costs of meeting water quality goals increase under future climate for one of the two climate models and for the Ensemble Mean. Major reasons for increased costs are higher predicted N loading from crops and higher N loading reductions to be achieved under future climate. The farm meets N limits by eliminating wheat and reducing corn and soybean production as well as increased use of best management practices (BMPs) including Conservation Reserve Program. Researchers should analyze effects of climate change on the costs of meeting water quality goals using multiple climate change prediction models and considering possible crop substitutions as well as crop and livestock BMPs. Further research should consider how commodity market reactions to producers’ choices under climate change affect costs of meeting water quality goals.
Despite millions of dollars invested in soil and water conservation practices in the (sub) humid Ethiopian highlands and billions of hours of food-for-work farm labor, sediment concentration in rivers is increasing. This paper reports on the research to reverse the current trend. Based on the understanding of the hydrology of highlands, we provide evidence on sources of surface runoff and sediment and on mechanisms that govern the erosion processes and approaches and how they affect soil and water conservation practices. We suggest that priority in landscape interventions should be given to re-vegetation of the degraded areas so as to reduce the sediment concentration contributions originating from these areas. Additionally, efforts should be directed to gully rehabilitation in the saturated bottom landscape that may consist of vegetating shallow gullies and stabilizing head cuts of deeper gullies Finally, rehabilitation efforts should be directed to increase the rain water infiltration in the upland areas through the hard pan layer by connecting the land surface to the original deep flow paths that exist below about 60 cm. It will reduce the direct runoff during the rainy season and increase baseflow during the dry season.
An ecohydrological watershed model can be used to develop an efficient watershed management plan for improving water quality. However, karst geology poses unique challenges in accurately simulating management impacts to both surface and groundwater hydrology. Two versions of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Regular-SWAT and Topo-SWAT (which incorporates variable source area hydrology), were assessed for their robustness in simulating hydrology of the karstic Spring Creek watershed of Centre County, Pennsylvania, USA. Appropriate representations of surface water – groundwater interactions and of spring recharge – discharge areas were critical for simulating this karst watershed. Both Regular-SWAT and Topo-SWAT described the watershed discharge adequately with daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) ranging from 0.77 to 0.79 for calibration and 0.68–0.73 for validation, respectively. Because Topo-SWAT more accurately represented measured daily streamflow, with statistically significant improvement of NSE over Regular-SWAT during validation (p-value = 0.05) and, unlike Regular-SWAT, had the capability of spatially mapping recharge/infiltration and runoff generation areas within the watershed, Topo-SWAT was selected to predict nutrient and sediment loads. Total watershed load estimates (518 t nitrogen/year, 45 t phosphorus/year, and 13600 t sediment/year) were within 10% of observed values (−9.2% percent bias for nitrogen, 6.6% for phosphorous, and 5.4% for sediment). Nutrient distributions among transport pathways, such as leaching and overland flow, corresponded with observed values. This study demonstrates that Topo-SWAT can be a valuable tool in future studies of agricultural land management change in karst regions.
Abstract. Erosion modeling has been generally scaling up from plot scale but not based on landscape topographic position, which is a main variable in saturation excess runoff. In addition, predicting sediment loss in Africa has been hampered by using models developed in western countries and do not perform as well in the monsoon climate prevailing in most of the continent. The objective of this paper is to develop a simple erosion model that can be used in the Ethiopian Highlands in Africa. We base our sediment prediction on a simple distributed saturated excess hydrology model that predicts surface runoff from severely degraded lands and from bottom lands that become saturated during the rainy season and estimates interflow and baseflow from the remaining portions of the landscape. By developing an equation that relates surface runoff to sediment concentration generated from runoff source areas, assuming that baseflow and interflow are sediment-free, we were able to predict daily sediment concentrations from the Anjeni watershed with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.64 to 0.78 using only two calibrated sediment parameters. Anjeni is a 113 ha watershed in the 17.4 million ha Blue Nile Basin in the Ethiopian Highlands. The discharge of the two watersheds was predicted with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values ranging from 0.80 to 0.93. The calibrated values in Anjeni for degraded (14%) and saturated (2%) runoff source area were in agreement with field evidence. The analysis suggests that identifying the runoff source areas and predicting the surface runoff correctly is an important step in predicting the sediment concentration.
Abstract. Gully formation in the Ethiopian Highlands has been identified as a major source of sediment in water bodies, and results in sever land degradation. Loss of soil from gully erosion reduces agricultural productivity and grazing land availability, and is one of the major causes of reservoir siltation in the Nile Basin. This study was conducted in the 523 ha Debre-Mawi watershed south of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, where gullies are actively forming in the landscape. Historic gully development in a section of the Debre-Mawi watershed was estimated with semi structured farmer interviews, remotely sensed imagery, and measurements of current gully volumes. Gully formation was assessed by instrumenting the gully and surrounding area to measure water table levels and soil physical properties. Gully formation began in the late 1980's following the removal of indigenous vegetation, leading to an increase in surface and subsurface runoff from the hillsides. A comparison of the gully area, estimated from a 0.58 m resolution QuickBird image, with the current gully area mapped with a GPS, indicated that the total eroded area of the gully increased from 0.65 ha in 2005 to 1.0 ha in 2007 and 1.43 ha in 2008. The gully erosion rate, calculated from cross-sectional transect measurements, between 2007 and 2008 was 530 t ha−1 yr−1 in the 17.4 ha area contributing to the gully, equivalent to over 4 cm soil loss over the contributing area. As a comparison, we also measured rill and interrill erosion rates in a nearby section of the watershed, gully erosion rates were approximately 20 times the measured rill and interrill rates. Depths to the water table measured with piezometers showed that in the actively eroding sections of the gully the water table was above the gully bottom and, in stable gully sections the water table was below the gully bottom during the rainy season. The elevated water table appears to facilitate the slumping of gully walls, which causes the gully to widen and to migrate up the hillside.
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