Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies, but the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified, and hence not well understood. We present a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering in central Italy. Six active normal faults are studied using 36Cl cosmogenic dating, revealing out-of-phase periods of high or low surface slip-rate on neighboring structures that we interpret as earthquake clusters and anticlusters. Our calculations link stress transfer caused by slip averaged over clusters and anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures to viscous flow laws. We show that (1) differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions, and (2) these fluctuations are of sufficient magnitude to produce changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that explain slip-rate changes on their overlying brittle faults. These results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible explanation for clustering, opening the path towards process-led seismic hazard assessments.
Supporting information for "Influence of fault system geometry and slip rates on the relative role of coseismic and interseismic stresses on earthquake triggering and recurrence variability"
Surface slip distributions for an active normal fault in central Italy have been measured using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), in order to assess the impact of changes in fault orientation and kinematics when modelling subsurface slip distributions that control seismic moment release. The southeastern segment of the surface trace of the Campo Felice active normal fault near the city of L'Aquila was mapped and surveyed using techniques from structural geology and using TLS to define the vertical and horizontal offsets of geomorphic slopes since the last glacial maximum (15 ± 3 ka). The fault geometry and kinematics measured from 43 sites and throw/heave measurements from geomorphic offsets seen on 250 scarp profiles were analysed using a modification of the Kostrov equations to calculate the magnitudes and directions of horizontal principal strain-rates. The map trace of the studied fault is linear, except where a prominent bend has formed to link across a former left-stepping relay-zone. The dip of the fault and slip direction are constant across the bend. Throw-rates since 15 ± 3 ka decrease linearly from the fault centre to the tip, except in the location of the prominent bend where higher throw rates are recorded. Vertical coseismic offsets for two palaeo earthquake ruptures seen as fresh strips of rock at the base of the bedrock scarp also increase within the prominent bend. The principal strain-rate, calculated by combining strike, dip, slip-direction and post 15 ± 3 ka throw rate, decreases linearly from the fault centre towards the tip; the strain-rate does not increase across the prominent fault bend. The above shows that changes in fault strike, whilst having no effect on the principal horizontal strain-rate, can produce local maxima in throw-rates during single earthquakes that persist over the timescale of multiple earthquakes (15 ± 3 ka). Detailed geomorphological and structural characterisation of active faults is therefore a critical requirement in order to properly define fault activity for the purpose of accurate seismic hazard assessment. We discuss the implications of modelling subsurface slip distributions for earthquake ruptures through inversion of GPS, InSAR and strong motion data using planar fault approximations, referring to recent examples on the nearby Paganica fault that ruptured in the Mw 6.3 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake.
Abstract In order to investigate the importance of including strike-variable geometry and the knowledge of historical and palaeoseismic earthquakes when modelling static Coulomb stress transfer and rupture propagation, we have examined the August–October 2016 A.D. and January 2017 A.D. central Apennines seismic sequence (Mw 6.0, 5.9, 6.5 in 2016 A.D. (INGV) and Mw 5.1, 5.5, 5.4, 5.0 in 2017 A.D. (INGV)). We model both the coseismic loading (from historical and palaeoseismic earthquakes) and interseismic loading (derived from Holocene fault slip-rates) using strike-variable fault geometries constrained by fieldwork. The inclusion of the elapsed times from available historical and palaeoseismological earthquakes and on faults enables us to calculate the stress on the faults prior to the beginning of the seismic sequence. We take account the 1316–4155 yr elapsed time on the Mt. Vettore fault (that ruptured during the 2016 A.D. seismic sequence) implied by palaeoseismology, and the 377 and 313 yr elapsed times on the neighbouring Laga and Norcia faults respectively, indicated by the historical record. The stress changes through time are summed to show the state of stress on the Mt. Vettore, Laga and surrounding faults prior to and during the 2016–2017 A.D. sequence. We show that the build up of stress prior to 2016 A.D. on strike-variable fault geometries generated stress heterogeneities that correlate with the limits of the main-shock ruptures. Hence, we suggest that stress barriers appear to have control on the propagation and therefore the magnitudes of the main-shock ruptures.
We present an in situ 36Cl dataset recording the exhumation of 27 active normal fault planes by earthquake slip for the central Apennines, Italy. We do this to constrain the characteristics of earthquake clustering and anticlustering across the entire extending orogen, and in an attempt to constrain the reasons why clustering and anticlustering occurs. We show that duration and magnitude of clustering and anticlustering, and their characteristics, can be explained by a model where the transfer of differential stress between faults and their underlying shear-zones, and between neighbouring fault/shear-zone structures, produces changes in strain-rates on underlying viscous shear zones which drive periods of rapid or reduced slip-rate on their overlying faults. We suggest that stress increase on an underlying shear zone produced by coseismic slip on its overlying fault could be the mechanism that initiates an earthquake cluster. We suggest that stress reductions on shear-zones from coseismic slip located across strike could be the mechanism that initiates an earthquake anticluster. The durations of anticlusters are controlled by the summed stress decreases through time on shear zones, because although these shear zones are slipping relatively slowly, eventually they will load their overlying fault to failure initiating a new cluster, with anticlusters induced across strike. Thus, there is dynamic feedback both up and down dip between faults and their underlying shear zones and crucially across strike between neighbouring fault/shear-zone structures. If the dynamics producing clustering and anticlustering can be constrained, it may be that observations of these phenomena should be included in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) and also interpretations of regional deformation rates and crustal rheologies based on geodetic data. Multi-millennial clustering and anticlustering should become a subject for discussion in these scientific communities.
Abstract Current studies of fault interaction lack sufficiently long earthquake records and measurements of fault slip rates over multiple seismic cycles to fully investigate the effects of interseismic loading and coseismic stress changes on the surrounding fault network. We model elastic interactions between 97 faults from 30 earthquakes since 1349 A.D. in central Italy to investigate the relative importance of co‐seismic stress changes versus interseismic stress accumulation for earthquake occurrence and fault interaction. This region has an exceptionally long, 667 year record of historical earthquakes and detailed constraints on the locations and slip rates of its active normal faults. Of 21 earthquakes since 1654, 20 events occurred on faults where combined coseismic and interseismic loading stresses were positive even though ~20% of all faults are in “stress shadows” at any one time. Furthermore, the Coulomb stress on the faults that experience earthquakes is statistically different from a random sequence of earthquakes in the region. We show how coseismic Coulomb stress changes can alter earthquake interevent times by ~10 3 years, and fault length controls the intensity of this effect. Static Coulomb stress changes cause greater interevent perturbations on shorter faults in areas characterized by lower strain (or slip) rates. The exceptional duration and number of earthquakes we model enable us to demonstrate the importance of combining long earthquake records with detailed knowledge of fault geometries, slip rates, and kinematics to understand the impact of stress changes in complex networks of active faults.
To assess whether continental extension and seismic hazard are spatially-localized on single faults or spread over wide regions containing multiple active faults, we investigated temporal and spatial slip-rate variability over many millennia using in-situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating for active normal faults near Athens, Greece. We study a ~ NNE-SSW transect, sub-parallel to the extensional strain direction, constrained by two permanent GPS stations located at each end of the transect and arranged normal to the fault strikes. We sampled 3 of the 7 seven normal faults that exist between the GPS sites for 36Cl analyses. Results from Bayesian inference of the measured 36Cl data implies that some faults slip relatively-rapidly for a few millennia accompanied by relative quiescence on faults across strike, defining out-of-phase fault activity. Assuming that the decadal strain-rate derived from GPS applies over many millennia, slip on a single fault can accommodate ~ 30-75% of the regional strain-rate for a few millennia. Our results imply that only a fraction of the total number of Holocene active faults slip over timescales of a few millennia, so continental deformation and seismic hazard are localized on specific faults and over a length-scale shorter than the spacing of the present GPS network over this time-scale. Thus, (1) the identification of clustered fault activity is vital for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, and (2) a combination of dense geodetic observations and palaeoseismology is needed to identify the precise location and width of actively deforming zones over specific time periods.
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