We assessed the utility of global CO2 distributions brought by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) in the estimation of regional CO2 fluxes. We did so by estimating monthly fluxes and their uncertainty over a one-year period between June 2009 and May 2010 from 1) observational data collected in existing networks of surface CO2 measurement sites (GLOBALVIEW-CO2 2010; extrapolated to the year 2010) and 2) both the surface observations and column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) retrieved from GOSAT soundings. Monthly means of the surface observations and GOSAT XCO2 retrievals gridded to 5° × 5° cells were used here. The estimation was performed for 64 subcontinental-scale regions. We compared these two sets of results in terms of change in uncertainty associated with the flux estimates. The rate of reduction in the flux uncertainty, which represents the degree to which the GOSAT XCO2 retrievals contribute to constraining the fluxes, was evaluated. We found that the GOSAT XCO2 retrievals could lower the flux uncertainty by as much as 48% (annual mean). Pronounced uncertainty reduction was found in the fluxes estimated for regions in Africa, South America, and Asia, where the sparsity of the surface monitoring sites is most evident.
Abstract. Aerosols from biomass burning (BB) emissions are poorly constrained in global and regional models, resulting in a high level of uncertainty in understanding their impacts. In this study, we compared six BB aerosol emission datasets for 2008 globally as well as in 14 regions. The six BB emission datasets are (1) GFED3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1), (2) GFED4s (GFED version 4 with small fires), (3) FINN1.5 (FIre INventory from NCAR version 1.5), (4) GFAS1.2 (Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2), (5) FEER1.0 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0), and (6) QFED2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4). The global total emission amounts from these six BB emission datasets differed by a factor of 3.8, ranging from 13.76 to 51.93 Tg for organic carbon and from 1.65 to 5.54 Tg for black carbon. In most of the regions, QFED2.4 and FEER1.0, which are based on satellite observations of fire radiative power (FRP) and constrained by aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), yielded higher BB aerosol emissions than the rest by a factor of 2–4. By comparison, the BB aerosol emissions estimated from GFED4s and GFED3.1, which are based on satellite burned-area data, without AOD constraints, were at the low end of the range. In order to examine the sensitivity of model-simulated AOD to the different BB emission datasets, we ingested these six BB emission datasets separately into the same global model, the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, and compared the simulated AOD with observed AOD from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) in the 14 regions during 2008. In Southern Hemisphere Africa (SHAF) and South America (SHSA), where aerosols tend to be clearly dominated by smoke in September, the simulated AOD values were underestimated in almost all experiments compared to MISR, except for the QFED2.4 run in SHSA. The model-simulated AOD values based on FEER1.0 and QFED2.4 were the closest to the corresponding AERONET data, being, respectively, about 73 % and 100 % of the AERONET observed AOD at Alta Floresta in SHSA and about 49 % and 46 % at Mongu in SHAF. The simulated AOD based on the other four BB emission datasets accounted for only ∼50 % of the AERONET AOD at Alta Floresta and ∼20 % at Mongu. Overall, during the biomass burning peak seasons, at most of the selected AERONET sites in each region, the AOD values simulated with QFED2.4 were the highest and closest to AERONET and MISR observations, followed closely by FEER1.0. However, the QFED2.4 run tends to overestimate AOD in the region of SHSA, and the QFED2.4 BB emission dataset is tuned with the GEOS model. In contrast, the FEER1.0 BB emission dataset is derived in a more model-independent fashion and is more physically based since its emission coefficients are independently derived at each grid box. Therefore, we recommend the FEER1.0 BB emission dataset for aerosol-focused hindcast experiments in the two biomass-burning-dominated regions in the Southern Hemisphere, SHAF, and SHSA (as well as in other regions but with lower confidence). The differences between these six BB emission datasets are attributable to the approaches and input data used to derive BB emissions, such as whether AOD from satellite observations is used as a constraint, whether the approaches to parameterize the fire activities are based on burned area, FRP, or active fire count, and which set of emission factors is chosen.
We retrieved and examined the partial-column densities of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the lower (LT, typically 0–4 km) and upper (UT, typically 4–12 km) troposphere (XCO2LT and XCO2UT) collected over six global megacities: Beijing, New Delhi, New York City, Riyadh, Shanghai, and Tokyo. The radiance spectra were collected using the Thermal And Near-infrared Sensor for carbon Observation Fourier-Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS) onboard the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Our retrieval method uniquely utilizes reflected sunlight with two orthogonal components of polarization and thermal emissions. We defined megacity concentration enhancement due to surface CO2 emissions as XCO2LT minus XCO2UT, allowing us to overcome some of the challenges in the enhancement analysis using existing column density data. We examined the relationship between the XCO2LT enhancements from the time series of intensive target observations over megacities and the inverse of simulated wind speed, which could be potentially used to estimate surface emissions. Next, we attempted to estimate the average emission intensity for each city from the linear regression slope. We also compared our obtained emission estimates with the Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) inventory for evaluation. Our results demonstrate the potential utility of the new partial-column density retrievals for estimating megacity CO2 emissions. More frequent and comprehensive coverage characterizing the spatial distribution of emissions is necessary to reduce random error and bias associated with the obtained estimate.
Abstract. The ability to monitor and understand natural and anthropogenic variability in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is a growing need of many stakeholders across the world. Systems that assimilate satellite observations, given their short latency and dense spatial coverage, into high-resolution global models are valuable, if not essential, tools for addressing this need. A notable drawback of modern assimilation systems is the long latency of many vital input datasets; for example, inventories, in situ measurements, and reprocessed remote-sensing data can trail the current date by months to years. This paper describes techniques for bias-correcting surface fluxes derived from satellite observations of the Earth's surface to be consistent with constraints from inventories and in situ CO2 datasets. The techniques are applicable in both short-term forecasts and retrospective simulations, thus taking advantage of the coverage and short latency of satellite data while reproducing the major features of long-term inventory and in situ records. Our approach begins with a standard collection of diagnostic fluxes which incorporate a variety of remote-sensing driver data, viz. vegetation indices, fire radiative power, and nighttime lights. We then apply an empirical sink so that global budgets of the diagnostic fluxes match given atmospheric and oceanic growth rates for each year. This step removes coherent, systematic flux errors that produce biases in CO2 which mask the signals an assimilation system hopes to capture. Depending on the simulation mode, the empirical sink uses different choices of atmospheric growth rates: estimates based on observations in retrospective mode and projections based on seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature in forecasting mode. The retrospective fluxes, when used in simulations with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), reproduce marine boundary layer measurements with comparable skill to those using fluxes from a modern inversion system. The forecasted fluxes show promising accuracy in their application to the analysis of changes in the carbon cycle as they occur.
We present surface CO2 flux estimates obtained by an inverse modeling analysis from column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) observed by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) and ground-based data. Two inversion cases were examined: 1) a decadal inversion using ground-based CO2 observations by NOAA from 1999 to 2010 to derive CO2 flux interannual variability, and 2) an inversion using NOAA plus NIES GOSAT XCO2 data from June 2009 to October 2010. We used single-shot GOSAT data and individual NOAA flask data for the inversions. Our results show differences in estimated fluxes between the NOAA data inversion and the NOAA plus GOSAT data inversion, especially in Northern Eurasia and in Equatorial Africa and America where the ground-based observational sites were sparse. Uncertainty reduction rates of 40%-70% were achieved by inclusion of GOSAT data, compared to the case using just the NOAA data. The inclusion of GOSAT data in the inversion resulted in larger summer sinks in northwest Boreal Eurasia and a smaller summer sink in southeast Boreal Eurasia, with a clear uncertainty reduction in both regions. Adding GOSAT data also led to increase in Tropical African fluxes in boreal winter beyond interannual variability from NOAA data inversions.
Abstract We employed an atmospheric transport model to attribute column‐averaged CO 2 mixing ratios ( X CO2 ) observed by Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to emissions due to large sources such as megacities and power plants. X CO2 enhancements estimated from observations were compared to model simulations implemented at the spatial resolution of the satellite observation footprint (0.1° × 0.1°). We found that the simulated X CO2 enhancements agree with the observed over several continental regions across the globe, for example, for North America with an observation to simulation ratio of 1.05 ± 0.38 ( p < 0.1), but with a larger ratio over East Asia (1.22 ± 0.32; p < 0.05). The obtained observation‐model discrepancy (22%) for East Asia is comparable to the uncertainties in Chinese emission inventories (~15%) suggested by recent reports. Our results suggest that by increasing the number of observations around emission sources, satellite instruments like GOSAT can provide a tool for detecting biases in reported emission inventories.
Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of methane emissions from the Los Angeles Basin at monthly timescales across a 4-year time period – from September 2011 to August 2015. Using observations acquired by a ground-based near-infrared remote sensing instrument on Mount Wilson, California, combined with atmospheric CH4–CO2 tracer–tracer correlations, we observed −18 to +22 % monthly variability in CH4 : CO2 from the annual mean in the Los Angeles Basin. Top-down estimates of methane emissions for the basin also exhibit significant monthly variability (−19 to +31 % from annual mean and a maximum month-to-month change of 47 %). During this period, methane emissions consistently peaked in the late summer/early fall and winter. The estimated annual methane emissions did not show a statistically significant trend over the 2011 to 2015 time period.
Abstract. We present the application of a global carbon cycle modeling system to the estimation of monthly regional CO2 fluxes from the column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) retrieved from spectral observations made by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The regional flux estimates are to be publicly disseminated as the GOSAT Level 4 data product. The forward modeling components of the system include an atmospheric tracer transport model, an anthropogenic emissions inventory, a terrestrial biosphere exchange model, and an oceanic flux model. The atmospheric tracer transport was simulated using isentropic coordinates in the stratosphere and was tuned to reproduce the age of air. We used a fossil fuel emission inventory based on large point source data and observations of nighttime lights. The terrestrial biospheric model was optimized by fitting model parameters to observed atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle, net primary production data, and a biomass distribution map. The oceanic surface pCO2 distribution was estimated with a 4-D variational data assimilation system based on reanalyzed ocean currents. Monthly CO2 fluxes of 64 sub-continental regions, between June 2009 and May 2010, were estimated from GOSAT FTS SWIR Level 2 XCO2 retrievals (ver. 02.00) gridded to 5° × 5° cells and averaged on a monthly basis and monthly-mean GLOBALVIEW-CO2 data. Our result indicated that adding the GOSAT XCO2 retrievals to the GLOBALVIEW data in the flux estimation brings changes to fluxes of tropics and other remote regions where the surface-based data are sparse. The uncertainties of these remote fluxes were reduced by as much as 60% through such addition. Optimized fluxes estimated for many of these regions, were brought closer to the prior fluxes by the addition of the GOSAT retrievals. In most of the regions and seasons considered here, the estimated fluxes fell within the range of natural flux variabilities estimated with the component models.
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