Subduction zones exhibit variable degrees of interseismic coupling as resolved by inversions of geodetic data and analyses of seismic energy release. The degree to which a plate boundary fault is coupled can have profound effects on its seismogenic behaviour. Here we use GPS measurements to estimate co- and post-seismic deformation from the 2012 August 27, Mw7.3 megathrust earthquake offshore El Salvador, which was a tsunami earthquake. Inversions of estimated coseismic displacements are in agreement with published seismically derived source models, which indicate shallow (<20 km depth) rupture of the plate interface. Measured post-seismic deformation in the first year following the earthquake exceeds the coseismic deformation. Our analysis indicates that the post-seismic deformation is dominated by afterslip, as opposed to viscous relaxation, and we estimate a post-seismic moment release one to eight times greater than the coseismic moment during the first 500 d, depending on the relative location of coseismic versus post-seismic slip on the plate interface. We suggest that the excessive post-seismic motion is characteristic for the El Salvador–Nicaragua segment of the Central American margin and may be a characteristic of margins hosting tsunami earthquakes.
Central America has an elevated seismic risk, resulting from the vulnerability of the building stock and steady population growth. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) aims to provide warning in advance of imminent shaking, allowing recipients to take action and reduce casualties during damaging motions. The Swiss Seismological Service (SED) has been collaborating with local seismic agencies to develop national EEW systems across Central America, which can potentially benefit nearly 47 million inhabitants. We conducted a public survey to comprehend the desire for EEW, the preferences for EEW attributes, and the current behaviour of people during earthquakes and the driving factors behind it. We recruited participants from Nicaragua (N = 513), Costa Rica (N = 1350), Guatemala (N = 559), and El Salvador (N = 491). In all four countries, participants consider it necessary to have an EEW system, are tolerant of false alerts, and are likely to react promptly to alerts. The desirable alert threshold is for low felt intensities, ranging between MMI III to IV. We found that a significant number of respondents already take protective action when earthquakes strike, and appropriate reactions are expected to increase when EEW is available. Our survey is unique in providing insights into the social dimension of EEW systems in low-income regions with high earthquake risk and where no operational EEW system yet exists.
Abstract The Jalpatagua fault in Guatemala accommodates dextral movement of the Central America forearc. We present new global positioning system (GPS) data, minor fault analysis, geochronological analyses, and analysis of lineaments to characterize deformation along the fault and near its terminations. Our data indicate that the Jalpatagua fault terminates at both ends into extensional regions. The western termination occurs near the Amatitlan caldera and the southern extension of the Guatemala City graben, as no through-going structures were observed to continue west into the active volcanic arc. Along the Jalpatagua fault, new and updated GPS site velocities are consistent with a slip rate of 7.1 ± 1.8 mm yr−1. Minor faulting along the central section of the fault includes: (1) N-S–striking normal faults accommodating E-W elongation; and (2) four sets of strike-slip faults (oriented 330°, 020°, 055°, and 295°, parallel to the Jalpatagua fault trace). Minor fault arrays support dextral movement along a major fault in the orientation of the Jalpatagua fault. GPS and fault data indicate that the Jalpatagua fault terminates to the east near the Guatemala–El Salvador border. Data delineate a pull-apart basin southeast of the fault termination, which is undergoing transtension as the Jalpatagua fault transitions into the El Salvador fault system to the east. Within the basin, minor faulting and lineations trend to the NW and accommodate NE-directed elongation. This faulting differs from E-W elongation observed along the Jalpatagua fault and is more similar to minor faults within the El Salvador fault system.
A new evaluation of seismic hazard in the Central America region has been carried out, in the frame of the cooperation project RESIS II, financed by the Norway Cooperation Agency (NORAD). Different experts in seismic hazard from Costa Rica, Guatemala, Nicaragua , El Salvador, Norway and Spain participated in the study, which was aimed at obtaining results suitable for seismic design purposes. The analysis started with an exhaustive revision of the seismic catalogues of each country from which a global catalogue for CA has been configured and homogenised at moment magnitude, Mw. Seismotectonic models proposed for the region were revised and a regional zonation was proposed, taking into account seismotectonic data, seismicity, focal mechanisms, GPS observations and other evidences useful for defining seismic sources. In parallel, attenuation models for subduction and volcanic crustal zones were revised and the more suitable models were calibrated with strong motion data. Taking the previous inputs, the seismic hazard analysis was developed in terms of peak ground acceleration, PGA and spectral accelerations SA (T) for periods of 0.1, 0.5, 1 and 2 s, through the PSHA methodology (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). As a result, different hazard maps were obtained for the quoted parameters, together with Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) in the main populations of Central America. This is the first study developed at regional scale after the last earthquakes that have occurred in the region and as a result the new generation of maps will be useful in the revision of seismic codes of the area.