Transportation networks are critical infrastructure in urban environments. Before, during and following volcanic activity, these networks can incur direct and indirect impacts, which subsequently reduces the Level-of-Service available to transportation end-users. Additionally, reductions in service can arise from management strategies including evacuation zoning, causing additional complications for transportation end-users and operators. Here, we develop metrics that incorporate Level-of-Service for transportation end-users as the key measure of vulnerability for multi-hazard volcanic impact and risk assessments. A hypothetical eruption scenario recently developed for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, is applied to describe potential impacts of a small basaltic eruption on different transportation modes, namely road, rail, and activities at airports and ports. We demonstrate how the new metrics can be applied at specific locations worldwide by considering the geophysical hazard sequence and evacuation zones in this scenario, a process that was strongly informed by consultation with transportation infrastructure providers and emergency management officials. We also discuss the potential implications of modified hazard sequences (e.g. different wind profiles during the scenario, and unrest with no resulting eruption) on transportation vulnerability and population displacement. The vent area of the eruption scenario used in our study is located north of the Māngere Bridge suburb of Auckland. The volcanic activity in the scenario progresses from seismic unrest, through phreatomagmatic explosions generating pyroclastic surges to a magmatic phase generating a scoria cone and lava flows. We find that most physical damage to transportation networks occurs from pyroclastic surges during the initial stages of the eruption. However, the most extensive service reduction across all networks occurs ~ 6 days prior to the eruption onset, largely attributed to the implementation of evacuation zones; these disrupt crucial north-south links through the south eastern Auckland isthmus, and at times cause up to ~ 435,000 residents and many businesses to be displaced. Ash deposition on road and rail following tephra-producing eruptive phases causes widespread Level-of-Service reduction, and some disruption continues for > 1 month following the end of the eruption until clean-up and re-entry to most evacuated zones is completed. Different tephra dispersal and deposition patterns can result in substantial variations to Level-of-Service and consequences for transportation management. Additional complexities may also arise during times of unrest with no eruption, particularly as residents are potentially displaced for longer periods of time due to extended uncertainties on potential vent location. The Level-of-Service metrics developed here effectively highlight the importance of considering transportation end-users when developing volcanic impact and risk assessments. We suggest that the metrics are universally applicable in other urban environments.
Abstract In this work we present the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk (CVHR) Volcanic Hazard Maps Database and the accompanying volcanichazardmaps.org website. Using input from a series of IAVCEI CVHR Working Group on Hazard Mapping workshops, we developed a classification scheme and terminology framework for categorizing, discussing, naming, and searching for hazard maps. ≥ The database and website aim to serve as a resource for the volcanology community to explore how different aspects of hazard map development and design have been addressed in different countries, for different hazard processes, and for different intended purposes and audiences. Additionally, they act as a tool for presenting hazard map options to stakeholder groups and serve as a learning resource that can be incorporated into educational materials and training courses. In this work, we present the database and website, discuss the classification scheme, explore the enormous diversity of hazard maps, and suggest ways that the database and website can be used by the volcanic hazard mapping community.
The identification and characterisation of faults in urban environments is important to inform seismic and landslide hazard, yet urban development often obscures geological and geomorphological evidence of fault traces. On the other hand, urban development also generates a wealth of borehole data, which, when combined with geophysical surveys, can enable a view into the subsurface. Here we combine geomorphological and geological mapping, gravity surveying, and 3D geological modelling to identify, map and characterise several faults in Beachlands, Auckland, some of which have large offsets. Our work has identified one new fault, the Motukaraka Fault, and confirmed the presence of two proposed faults, the Waikopua North and Te Puru faults. The Motukaraka and Waikopua North faults are both steeply dipping normal faults, which strike NNW and downthrow Mesozoic basement to the west. The Motukaraka Fault has an offset of 250 m (±100 m) and the Waikopua North Fault a combined offset of 240 m (±50 m) across two parallel fault segments. The Te Puru fault strikes northeast near the northern extent of the Waikopua Fault, and downthrows Mesozoic basement to the northwest by 60–100 m. Further investigations are required to determine whether these buried faults are active.
Volcanic hazard analyses are desirable where there is potential for future volcanic activity to affect a proximal population. This is frequently the case for volcanic fields (regions of distributed volcanism) where low eruption rates, fertile soil, and attractive landscapes draw populations to live close by. Forecasting future activity in volcanic fields almost invariably uses spatial or spatio-temporal point processes with model selection and development based on exploratory analyses of previous eruption data. For identifiability reasons, spatio-temporal processes, and practically also spatial processes, the definition of a spatial region is required to which volcanism is confined. However, due to the complex and predominantly unknown sub-surface processes driving volcanic eruptions, definition of a region based solely on geological information is currently impossible. Thus, the current approach is to fit a shape to the known previous eruption sites. The class of boundary shape is an unavoidable subjective decision taken by the forecaster that is often overlooked during subsequent analysis of results. This study shows the substantial effect that this choice may have on even the simplest exploratory methods for hazard forecasting, illustrated using four commonly used exploratory statistical methods and two very different regions: the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, and Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. For Harrat Rahat, sensitivity of results to boundary definition is substantial. For the Auckland Volcanic Field, the range of options resulted in similar shapes, nevertheless, some of the statistical tests still showed substantial variation in results. This work highlights the fact that when carrying out any hazard analysis on volcanic fields, it is vital to specify how the volcanic field boundary has been defined, assess the sensitivity of boundary choice, and to carry these assumptions and related uncertainties through to estimates of future activity and hazard analyses.
Assessing the impact of crustal assimilation on the composition of oceanic arc lavas is important if source composition is to be correctly interpreted. This is particularly the case in the Lesser Antilles where lavas encompass a very large range in radiogenic isotope compositions. Here we present new 176Hf/177Hf and trace element data for a suite of samples from St Lucia in the southern Lesser Antilles arc where assimilation of sediments located within the arc crust has been shown to influence significantly Sr–Nd–Pb isotope compositions. We show that a high rate of assimilation (r = 0·8) of sediment is responsible for the co-variation of Th/Th*, La/Sm, 87Sr/86Sr, 206/207/208Pb/204Pb, 143Nd/144Nd and 176Hf/177Hf towards extreme 'continental' compositions. Lavas that escaped sediment assimilation have a typical oceanic arc signature and provide the best indication of mantle source characteristics beneath St Lucia. They display similar Ba/Th, La/Sm and Nd isotopic compositions to lavas further north in the arc, but with slightly more radiogenic Sr and Pb. Addition of less than 2% of local bulk subducting sediment, or less than 3·5% of sediment partial melt or fluid, to the mantle wedge can explain these compositions; these estimates are similar to those previously proposed for the northern arc. After correction for the effects of sediment assimilation, the St Lucia lavas have only slightly more radiogenic Pb and Sr isotope signatures compared with the northern islands; this can be attributed to differences in the isotopic composition of the local subducting sediment rather than to greater sediment input, as has been previously proposed. Comparison of St Lucia with the other southern Lesser Antilles islands suggests that similar mantle source compositions exist beneath Martinique, St Vincent and perhaps Bequia, whereas a more 'continental' source might characterize Ile de Caille, Kick 'em Jenny and Grenada.
Abstract Little Barrier Island is the emergent part of a large, isolated, dacite‐rhyodacite volcano in the active Hauraki Rift, 80 km northeast of Auckland. Two volcanic episodes are recognised: Waimaomao Formation was emplaced as a rhyodacite dome at 3 Ma, whereas the more extensive dacitic lavas of Haowhenua Formation were erupted between 1.2 and 1.6 Ma. All Little Barrier lavas are strongly porphyritic and contain phenocrysts of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, and hornblende. Geochemically, they are subduction related and distinct from the older lavas of the Coromandel Volcanic Group, being Zr rich but Rb and Ba poor. Their Sr and Nd isotope ratios are similar to those of the Tonga‐Kermadec arc volcanoes. Modelling of the dacite supports petrographic evidence that recharge and mixing were important in the magmatic system. Little Barrier and two dacite domes of similar age and composition near Whangarei form a northwest‐trending lineament subparallel to the Alexandra Volcanics and the Vening Meinesz Fracture Zone.
'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' transform='rotate(72 0 0)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' transform='rotate(-72 0 0)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23a' transform='scale(-1 1) rotate(72)'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/defs%3e%3cpath fill='%23012169' d='M0 0h1200v600H0z'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23FFF' stroke-width='60' d='m0 0 600 300M0 300 600 0' clip-path='url(%23b)'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23C8102E' stroke-width='40' d='m0 0 600 300M0 300 600 0' clip-path='url(%23c)'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23FFF' stroke-width='100' d='M300 0v300M0 150h600' clip-path='url(%23b)'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23C8102E' stroke-width='60' d='M300 0v300M0 150h600' clip-path='url(%23b)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' fill='%23FFF' transform='matrix(45.4 0 0 45.4 900 120)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' fill='%23C8102E' transform='matrix(30 0 0 30 900 120)'/%3e%3cg transform='rotate(82 900 240)'%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' fill='%23FFF' transform='rotate(-82 519.022 -457.666) scale(40.4)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' fill='%23C8102E' transform='rotate(-82 519.022 -457.666) scale(25)'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cg transform='rotate(82 900 240)'%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' fill='%23FFF' transform='rotate(-82 668.57 -327.666) scale(45.4)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' fill='%23C8102E' transform='rotate(-82 668.57 -327.666) scale(30)'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' fill='%23FFF' transform='matrix(50.4 0 0 50.4 900 480)'/%3e%3cuse xlink:href='%23d' fill='%23C8102E' transform='matrix(35 0 0 35 900 480)'/%3e%3c/svg%3e)
'%3e%3cpath fill='%23012169' d='M0 0v30h60V0z'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23fff' stroke-width='6' d='m0 0 60 30m0-30L0 30'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23C8102E' stroke-width='4' d='m0 0 60 30m0-30L0 30' clip-path='url(%23b)'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23fff' stroke-width='10' d='M30 0v30M0 15h60'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23C8102E' stroke-width='6' d='M30 0v30M0 15h60'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
