The need to design resilient energy systems becomes ever more apparent as we face the challenge of decarbonising through reliance on non-dispatchable technologies and sectoral integration. Increasingly, modelling efforts focus on improving system resilience, but fail to quantify the improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel workflow that allows increases in resilience to be measured quantitatively. It incorporates out-of-sample testing following optimisation, and compares the impacts of demand and power interruption uncertainty on both risk-unaware and risk-aware district energy system models. To ensure we encompass the full range of impacts caused by uncertainty, we consider nine distinct objectives encompassing differences in: investment and operation costs, CO2 emissions, and aversion to risk. We apply the workflow in a case study in Bangalore, India, and demonstrate that scenario optimisation improves system resilience by one to two orders of magnitude. However, systems designed for resilience to demand uncertainty are not able to gracefully extend to managing risk from extreme shocks to the system, such as power interruptions. We show that shock-induced instability can be addressed by specific measures to reduce grid dependence. Finally, by studying out-of-sample test results, we identify an objective which balances cost, CO2 emissions, and system resilience; this balance is achieved by novel application of the Conditional Value at Risk measure. These results expose the need for out-of-sample testing whenever uncertainty is considered in energy system modelling, and we provide the framework with which it can be undertaken.

Resilience

Sample (material)

Dispatchable generation

Investment

10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116465

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Citations (22)

Finding common ground: A methodology for city-scale subsurface thermal modelling

Urban Climate (2023)

Monika Johanna Kreitmair Nikolas Makasis Asal Bidarmaghz Kathrin Menberg Ruchi Choudhary

Urban Heat Island

10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101513

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Citations (5)

Making Geology Relevant for Infrastructure and Planning

R.L. Terrington S. A. Thorpe Holger Kessler Asal Bidarmaghz Ruchi Choudhary

The urban population is projected to rise to 66% in 2050 to 7.6 billion.This has had, and will have, a profound effect on the geological and geomorphological character of the Earth's shallow geosphere.It is important to know the character and geometries of the geological deposits so that infrastructure is planned sensibly and sustainably, and urban areas can be reused responsibly to ensure that they help facilitate economic and social development.This brings major challenges for our cities, where there is increased pressure on resources, space and services.The geosciences have an important part to play in securing sustainable global cities -they can support urban innovation and city performance, reduce our environmental footprint and ensure greater resilience to natural hazards such as flooding and ground instability.For more than 30 years the British Geological Survey has advanced the geoscientific understanding and 3D characterisation of urban environments, producing multi-themed spatial datasets for geohazards and ground investigation used across the environmental, planning and insurance sectors.The BGS have collaborated with the University of Cambridge to better integrate geological data with landuse and infrastructure to look at the long-term impact on these types of activities at surface and subsurface.A 3D GeoLanduse layer was produced from the geological framework model of London.This vector-based grid means that many soil and rock properties (e.g.foundation conditions, groundwater levels, volume change potential), can be represented alongside landuse statistics and infrastructure type and correlated in the XYZ domain.Focus has been at geothermal potential of the ground surrounding residential basements and the broader correlation between geology, energy consumption and landuse at city scale using principle component analysis and cluster recognition.

Environmental geology

Geological survey

Resilience

10.1680/icsic.64669.403

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Citations (5)

Multi-Dimensional Simulation of Underground Spaces Coupled with Geoenergy Systems

Building Simulation Conference proceedings (2015)

Adnan Mortada Ruchi Choudhary Kenichi Soga

10.26868/25222708.2015.2372

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Citations (0)

District energy system optimisation under uncertain demand: Handling data-driven stochastic profiles

Applied Energy (2018)

Bryn Pickering Ruchi Choudhary

Futures studies

Investment

Demand patterns

10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.037

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Citations (43)

Impacts of underground climate change on urban geothermal potential: Lessons learnt from a case study in London

The Science of The Total Environment (2021)

Asal Bidarmaghz Ruchi Choudhary Guillermo A. Narsilio Kenichi Soga

Borough

Geothermal heating

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146196

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Citations (18)

Thermal Response of Energy Screw Piles Connected in Series

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering (2023)

Luis A. Bandeira Neto Guillermo A. Narsilio Nikolas Makasis Ruchi Choudhary Yale Carden

Energy piles are a consolidated underground heat exchanger alternative to traditional boreholes in ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems. Previous works focused on assessing the differences between piles and boreholes, but few assessed small piles in operational conditions. Moreover, most of these studies centered around cylindrical concrete piles, overlooking short screw piles. Using in-situ testing, established analytical methods, and advanced three dimensional (3D) finite element model simulations, this work assesses three thermal response tests (TRT) executed in different energy pile structures, one being a unique group of eight short energy screw piles connected in series, located in the same site in Melbourne, Australia. Detailed numerical analysis provided reliable soil and structure thermal parameter predictions and detailed computations allowed the study of thermal effects for the energy screw piles steel components. The results show limited impact of the steel components on effective thermal conductivity, but a reduction in thermal resistivity that may provide a speedier thermal exchange in short term GSHP operation. In addition, the more traditional TRT rigs and analytical interpretation provided reasonable results for the pile group in series, and show a similar performance to a borehole heat exchanger of similar pipe length; however, the short piles engage only the upper soil layers, with potentially lower thermal conductivity. TRT in single short screw piles require careful consideration, because common rigs may be unable to cater for the required low fluid flow rates and heating power. Thus, for the cases assessed herein, the pile group TRT proved to be more reliable than individual pile testing, due to their short length.

Thermal energy

10.1061/jggefk.gteng-11082

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Citations (6)

Slipping through the net: Can data science approaches help target clean cooking policy interventions?

Energy Policy (2020)

André Paul Neto-Bradley Ruchi Choudhary Amir Bazaz

Stove

Proxy (statistics)

10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111650

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Citations (9)