Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.
Download information Please do not request a data download here. Rather, the data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer under this download link: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs-phase-3/#/downloads. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information. 3.3 (7 October 2022) Correction notice: In this version of the NGFS Phase 3 data set, V3.3, the updates for the NiGEM model were not included due to a processing error. This has been rectified is the next version, V3.4 (10.5281/zenodo.7198430). For reasons of transparency and continuity we have chosen to keep the release notes below regarding NiGEM even though they are not correct. The rest of the updates were included correctly. General: Included all years in the data set, including years passed. NiGEM: (not included due to processing error) Removed incorrect "index; 2017=100" from NiGEM units. Units affected are (updated unit in bold): index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel(equiv) % difference, index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel % difference, index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel(equiv) Transition effects now refer to the combined carbon pricing and recycling shocks rather than the carbon price only. Transition effects have been removed for "Current Policies" which only experiences chronic physical impacts (no carbon pricing under current policies). Combined effects now equal transition + physical. A further combined data row has been added to the disorderly scenarios ("Delayed transition", "Divergent Net Zero") to show the output of an additional business confidence shock applied to the combined shock (see scenario description). These data are denoted by the "|Combined plus business confidence" suffix in the variable name. Acute physical risk data have been added for the scenarios "Delayed transition", "Current Policies", "Net Zero 2050" for the world level. As these data are model independent, they have been added under "NiGEM NGFS v1.22" only (without any input model information). Country specific currency information for units labelled as "local currency" has been added to the downloadable data under the "unit" column. It is added as a suffix e.g. "2017 prices; local currency ( US$ Bn)", when before it was "2017 prices; local currency ( US$ Bn)". REMIND integrated damage runs: Added the variables "GDP|PPP|Counterfactual without Damage" and "GDP|PPP|including chronic physical risk damage estimate" for the for the regions "TWN", "MAC" and "CHN". About the data set This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 3 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The Phase 3 bespoke scenarios are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models allow the estimation of global and regional mitigation costs, the analysis of energy system transition characteristics, the quantification of investments required to transform the energy system, and the identification of synergies and trade-off of sustainable development pathways. Technical documentation is available to help users access the datasets. The documentation describes the models and variables, as well as provides detailed guidance for database users. Scenario presentation materials and the user guide are also available at the NGFS portal.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations worldwide pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions-NDCs) to avert the threat of climate change, and agreed to periodically review these pledges to strengthen their level of ambition. Previous studies have analyzed NDCs largely in terms of their implied contribution to limit global warming, their implications on the energy sector or on mitigation costs. Nevertheless, a gap in the literature exists regarding the understanding of implications of the NDCs on countries' Energy-Water-Land nexus resource systems. The present paper explores this angle within the regional context of Latin America by employing the Global Change Assessment Model, a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model capable of representing key system-wide interactions among nexus sectors and mitigation policies. By focusing on Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, we stress potential implications on national-level water demands depending on countries' strategies to enforce energy-related emissions reductions and their interplays with the land sector. Despite the differential implications of the Paris pledges on each country, increased water demands for crop and biomass irrigation and for electricity generation stand out as potential trade-offs that may emerge under the NDC policy. Hence, this study underscores the need of considering a nexus resource planning framework (known as "Nexus Approach") in the forthcoming NDCs updating cycles as a mean to contribute toward sustainable development.
Download information Please do not request a data download here. Rather, the data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer under this download link: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs-phase-3/#/downloads. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information. 3.2 (9 September 2022) Added "Baseline" scenario for NiGEM Moved MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 1.1-M-R12 variables that were wrongly filed under "Downscaling [MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 1.1-M-R12]" back to model native. About the data set This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 3 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The Phase 3 bespoke scenarios are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models allow the estimation of global and regional mitigation costs, the analysis of energy system transition characteristics, the quantification of investments required to transform the energy system, and the identification of synergies and trade-off of sustainable development pathways. Technical documentation is available to help users access the datasets. The documentation describes the models and variables, as well as provides detailed guidance for database users. Scenario presentation materials and the user guide are also available at the NGFS portal.
Download information Please do not request a data download here. Rather, the data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer under this download link: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs/#/downloads. In order to download click on Guest login. You will be forwarded to the downloads page where you find the data. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information. Release notes V4.0 An effort has been made to keep the NGFS Phase 4 data model as much as possible in line with Phase 3 as possible. Nonetheless, there are a few changes: The MESSAGE model (IAM and Downscaling) does not report GDP for the Low demand scenario because the demand projections are developed bottom-up uncoupled from the GDP feedbacks in the MESSAGEix framework. The *Divergent net Zero* scenario was dropped. Two new scenarios were introduced: Fragmented World Low Demand There's now a full set of From the MAGICC climate model, we now report more percentiles ranging from 5th to 95th instead of just the previously only the 50th percentile. The in Phase 3 from REMIND and GCAM model-reported temperature variable Temperature|Global mean has been dropped. The replacement variable is the more accurate AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th. In addition we also report atmospheric concentrations from MAGICC for CO2, CH4, and N2O. The Damages post processing was moved under the Downscaling model as it reports country level data. Previously it was filed under the native IAM models.The variables affected are: GDP|PPP|including medium chronic physical risk damage estimate GDP|PPP|including high chronic physical risk damage estimate Post-processed|high GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile Post-processed|high GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th Percentile Post-processed|high GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|95.0th Percentile Post-processed|median GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile Post-processed|median GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th Percentile Post-processed|median GDP change|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|95.0th Percentile net GDP|PPP|high damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile net GDP|PPP|high damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th Percentile net GDP|PPP|high damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|95.0th Percentile net GDP|PPP|median damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|5.0th Percentile net GDP|PPP|median damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|50.0th Percentile net GDP|PPP|median damage|KW panel population-weighted|GMT AR6 climate diagnostics|Surface Temperature (GSAT)|MAGICCv7.5.3|95.0th Percentile Country Temperature|Downscaling|5.0th Percentile Country Temperature|Downscaling|50.0th Percentile Country Temperature|Downscaling|95.0th Percentile In Phase 3 for the integrated damage runs of REMIND (REMIND-MAgPIE 3.0-4.4 IntegratedPhysicalDamages (95th-high) and REMIND-MAgPIE 3.0-4.4 IntegratedPhysicalDamages (median)) the variable GDP|PPP|Counterfactual without damage was reported erroneously. It has been removed for this release. Due to limitation in Excel data size the Downscaling data have now been split into three files, one for each IAM. In addition, due to a processing error, NiGEM data for the MESSAGE model, for scenarios Net Zero 2050, Below 2C and Fragmented World are currently not published. Work is being done to fix this as soon as possible. About NGFS The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is a group of 127 central banks and supervisors and 20 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. This Scenario Explorer is a web-based user interface for NGFS Scenarios. This provides intuitive visualizations & display of time series data and download of the data in multiple formats. NGFS scenarios were produced by NGFS Workstream on Scenarios Design and Analysis in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). This work was made possible by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and ClimateWorks Foundation. The bespoke scenarios developed in Phase 4 of this project are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE, as well as the NiGEM macroeconomic model.
Climate change mitigation strategies have focused on reductions in carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases. Smith et al., investigate the viability of a different strategy, recently proposed by Hansen et al., which focuses on controlling short-lived pollutants such as soot and tropospheric ozone. They conclude that carbon dioxide must remain the primary focus of climate change mitigation strategies.
Article MetricsDownloadsCitationsNo data available.020406027 Feb 202206 Mar 202213 Mar 202220 Mar 20227190TotalFirst 30 Days6 Months12 MonthsTotal number of downloads for the first 30 days after content publication
