Tamás Krisztin

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Peter Havlík

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Tomoko Hasegawa

Ritsumeikan University

Jonathan Doelman

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Elke Stehfest

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Florian Humpenöder

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Alexander Popp

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Katherine Calvin

Joint Global Change Research Institute

Detlef P. van Vuuren

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Hans van Meijl

Wageningen University & Research

Shinichiro Fujimori

Kyoto University

Cooperative Institutions

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Wageningen University & Research

ORCID

University College London

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

University of Oxford

ETH Zurich

John Wiley & Sons (United States)

University of Maryland, College Park

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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Nature (2020)

David Leclère Michael Obersteiner Mike Barrett Stuart H. M. Butchart Abhishek Chaudhary

Terrestrial ecosystem

10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y

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Citations (680)

The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

Global Environmental Change (2019)

Nuala Fitton Peter Alexander Nigel W. Arnell Bojana Bajželj Katherine Calvin

• We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability. • We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability. • Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability. • Changes in diet and waste reduction offer a buffer against land loss and food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

Scarcity

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

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Citations (206)

Increasing nitrogen export to sea: A scenario analysis for the Indus River

The Science of The Total Environment (2019)

Mengru Wang Ting Tang Peter Burek Peter Havlík Tamás Krisztin

Indus

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133629

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Citations (22)

The Determinants of Regional Freight Transport: A Spatial, Semiparametric Approach

Geographical Analysis (2017)

Tamás Krisztin

In the context of modeling regional freight the four‐stage model is a popular choice. The first stage of the model, freight generation and attraction, however, suffers from three shortcomings: first of all, it does not take spatial dependencies among regions into account, thus potentially yielding biased estimates. Second, there is no clear consensus in the literature as to the choice of explanatory variables. Second, sectoral employment and gross value added are used to explain freight generation, whereas some recent publications emphasize the importance of variables which measure the amount of logistical activity in a region. Third, there is a lack of consensus regarding the functional form of the explanatory variables. Multiple recent studies emphasize nonlinear influences of selected variables. This article addresses these shortcomings by using a spatial variant of the classic freight generation and attraction models combined with a penalized spline framework to model the explanatory variables in a semiparametric fashion. Moreover, a Bayesian estimation approach is used, coupled with a penalized Normal inverse‐Gamma prior structure, to introduce uncertainty regarding the choice and functional form of explanatory variables. The performance of the model is assessed on a real‐world example of freight generation and attraction of 258 European NUTS‐2 level regions, covering 25 European countries.

Explanatory power

10.1111/gean.12125

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Citations (23)

Predicting spatiotemporal soil organic carbon responses to management using EPIC-IIASA meta-models

Journal of Environmental Management (2023)

Tara Ippolito Juraj Balkovič Rastislav Skalský Christian Folberth Tamás Krisztin

Soil carbon

10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118532

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Citations (1)

Simulated impact of paleoclimate change on Fremont Native American maize farming in Utah, 850–1449 CE, using crop and climate models

Quaternary International (2018)

Marcus J. Thomson Juraj Balkovič Tamás Krisztin Glen M. MacDonald

The Fremont were members of an expansive maize-based Ancestral Puebloan (AP) cultural complex who disappeared from Utah between the 12th and 13th centuries CE. This period brackets that of a climatic transition in the Southwest from the warm, dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ca. 850–1350 CE) to the cool, hydro-climatically variable Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1350–1850 CE). We simulated maize (Zea mays) crop productivity for Fremont AP archaeological sites in Utah between 850 and 1449 CE using a process-based crop model driven by climatologies from a statistically downscaled a climate model. We compared the model-simulated crop yields to time-series of archaeological site occupations given by spatially discrete, chronologically summed probability distributions (SPDs) of radiocarbon-dated Fremont artifacts. We found that the anomalous abandonment of different sites throughout Utah may be explained by site-specific combinations of reduced mean yield due to volatile year-to-year yields caused by increasing temperature variability, increasing hydro-climatic variability, and loss of soil quality, which depended on crop management strategy. In other words, we model the elimination of the Fremont AP ecological niche by exogenous influences of temperature and precipitation variability at the MCA-LIA transition and endogenous degradation of soil from organic carbon and nitrogen loss. Our method has broad applicability to contexts of low-technology, dryland farming human-environmental interactions.

Expansive

Paleoclimatology

10.1016/j.quaint.2018.09.031

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Citations (20)

Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade

Nature Climate Change (2020)

Charlotte Janssens Peter Havlík Tamás Krisztin Justin S. Baker Stefan Frank

10.1038/s41558-020-0847-4

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Citations (189)

Modelling European regional FDI flows using a Bayesian spatial Poisson interaction model

The Annals of Regional Science (2021)

Tamás Krisztin Philipp Piribauer

This paper presents an empirical study of spatial origin and destination effects of European regional FDI dyads. Recent regional studies primarily focus on locational determinants, but ignore bilateral origin- and intervening factors, as well as associated spatial dependence. This paper fills this gap by using observations on interregional FDI flows within a spatially augmented Poisson interaction model. We explicitly distinguish FDI activities between three different stages of the value chain. Our results provide important insights on drivers of regional FDI activities, both from origin and destination perspectives. We moreover show that spatial dependence plays a key role in both dimensions.

Spatial Dependence

Value (mathematics)

10.1007/s00168-021-01058-x

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Citations (1)

Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Nature Climate Change (2022)

Céline Guivarch Thomas Le Gallic Nico Bauer Panagiotis Fragkos Daniel Huppmann

10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x

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Citations (61)

A cost–benefit analysis of implementing urban heat island adaptation measures in small- and medium-sized cities in Austria

Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science (2020)

Daniel Johnson Linda See Sandro Oswald Gundula Prokop Tamás Krisztin

Urban heat islands are an increasing concern even in small- to medium-sized cities, although these areas are still understudied especially in terms of the economic feasibility of adaptation options. This paper uses adaptation scenarios produced by an urban climate model as inputs to a social cost–benefit analysis in three small- to medium-sized cities in Austria: Mödling, Klagenfurt, and Salzburg. The adaptation scenarios, which consider measures such as increasing the reflectivity of different sealed surfaces (referred to as the White City scenario) as well as greening measures (i.e. the Green City scenario), show decreases in the number of hot days (T max ≥30°C) when implemented. Benefits include reductions in heat-related mortality, which are modeled based on trends of daily mortality and climate data, reduced morbidity, productivity loss, and numerous urban ecosystem services. The results demonstrate favorable benefit–cost ratios of a combination of measures (White and Green City) of 1.27, 1.36, and 2.68 for Mödling, Klagenfurt, and Salzburg, respectively, indicating positive economic grounds for supporting policies in line with the adaptation scenarios. Furthermore, results of the Green City vs. White City showed higher benefits for the combined and Green City scenarios despite higher costs for each of the cities.

Urban Heat Island

Economic Analysis

10.1177/2399808320974689

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Citations (15)