Safa Baccour

Universitat Politècnica de València

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José Albiac

Universidad de Zaragoza

Taher Kahil

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Encarna Esteban

Universidad de Zaragoza

Daniel Crespo

University of California, Riverside

Frank A. Ward

New Mexico State University

Amaury Tilmant

Université Laval

Vahid Espanmanesh

Université Laval

Javier Uche

Universidad de Zaragoza

Elena Calvo

Universidad de Zaragoza

Ariel Dinar

University of California, Riverside

Cooperative Institutions

Universidad de Zaragoza

Centro de Investigación y Tecnología Agroalimentaria de Aragón

Université Laval

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Government of Spain

University of California, Riverside

Wageningen University & Research

John Wiley & Sons (United States)

IHE Delft Institute for Water Education

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

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Tradeoffs between Water Uses and Environmental Flows: A Hydroeconomic Analysis in the Ebro Basin

Water Resources Management (2019)

Daniel Crespo José Albiac Taher Kahil Encarna Esteban Safa Baccour

Environmental water uses and their social values have been mostly overlooked in traditional water management over the last few decades, and recently, the maintenance of environmental flows has been considered a key issue in water policies. Addressing the more sustainable management of water resources involves introducing new water allocation policies. However, these policies are often associated with tradeoffs across sectors, stakeholders, and spatial locations. This study aims to evaluate the tradeoffs and political economy aspects of allocating water among economic water uses and environmental flows in water-scarce river basins. An empirical analysis has been conducted in the Ebro River basin (Spain) as a case study, where an intense debate on the environmental flow allocation of the Ebro mouth is taking place. The study uses a hydroeconomic model that includes the major water uses in the Ebro to analyze the effects of different water allocation policies under combinations of water availability and environmental flow scenarios. The results of this study highlight the importance of assessing the opportunity costs and political implications of reallocating water from economic activities to the environment under impending climate change impacts. Moreover, the results indicate that well-functioning water allocation policies should be not only economically efficient but also socially acceptable to reduce the likelihood of failure of water reallocation to the environment.

Water use

10.1007/s11269-019-02254-3

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Citations (39)

Hydroeconomic modeling for assessing water scarcity and agricultural pollution abatement policies in the Ebro River Basin, Spain

Journal of Cleaner Production (2021)

Safa Baccour José Albiac Taher Kahil Encarna Esteban Daniel Crespo

Water scarcity and water quality degradation are major problems in many basins across the world, especially in arid and semiarid regions. The severe pressures on basins are the consequence of the intensification of food production systems and the unrelenting growth of population and income. Agriculture is a major factor in the depletion and degradation of water resources, and contributes to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Our study analyzes water allocation and agricultural pollution into watercourses and the atmosphere, with the purpose of identifying cost-effective policies for sustainable water management in the Ebro River Basin (Spain). The study develops an hydroeconomic model that integrates hydrological, economic and water quality aspects, capturing the main spatial and sectoral interactions in the basin. The model is used to analyze water scarcity and agricultural pollution under normal and droughts conditions, providing information for evaluating mitigation and adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events increase nitrate concentration by up to 63% and decrease water availability by 42% at the mouth of Ebro River, highlighting the tradeoffs between water quantity and quality. All mitigation and adaptation policies reduce the effects of climate change, improving water quality and reducing GHGs' emissions, thus lowering environmental damages and enhancing social well-being. Manure fertilization and optimizing the use of synthetic fertilizers are important cost-effective policies increasing social benefits in a range between 50 and 160 million Euros. Results show that irrigation modernization increases the efficient use of nitrogen and water, augmenting social benefits by up to 90 million Euros, and enlarging stream flows at the river mouth. In contrast, manure treatment plants reduce private and social benefits even though they achieve the lowest nitrate concentrations. Our study provides insights on the synergies and tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives. Another finding is that drought conditions decrease the effectiveness of policies, and increase the tradeoffs between water availability and nitrate pollution. The results contribute to the discussion of designing cost-effective policies for the abatement of agricultural polluting emissions into water and the atmosphere.

Scarcity

10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129459

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Citations (31)

Water quality management could halve future water scarcity cost-effectively in the Pearl River Basin

Nature Communications (2024)

Safa Baccour Gerwin Goelema Taher Kahil José Albiac Michelle T. H. van Vliet

Abstract Reducing water scarcity requires both mitigation of the increasing water pollution and adaptation to the changing availability and demand of water resources under global change. However, state-of-the-art water scarcity modeling efforts often ignore water quality and associated biogeochemical processes in the design of water scarcity reduction measures. Here, we identify cost-effective options for reducing future water scarcity by accounting for water quantity and quality in the highly water stressed and polluted Pearl River Basin in China under various socio-economic and climatic change scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our modeling approach integrates a nutrient model (MARINA-Nutrients) with a cost-optimization procedure, considering biogeochemistry and human activities on land in a spatially explicit way. Results indicate that future water scarcity is expected to increase by a factor of four in most parts of the Pearl River Basin by 2050 under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario. Results also show that water quality management options could half future water scarcity in a cost-effective way. Our analysis could serve as an example of water scarcity assessment for other highly water stressed and polluted river basins around the world and inform the design of cost-effective measures to reduce water scarcity.

Scarcity

10.1038/s41467-024-49929-z

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Citations (6)

Probabilistic Trade‐Offs Analysis for Sustainable and Equitable Management of Climate‐Induced Water Risks

Water Resources Research (2025)

Safa Baccour Amaury Tilmant José Albiac Vahid Espanmanesh Taher Kahil

Abstract Pressures on water resources are fueling conflicts between sectors. This trend will likely worsen under future climate‐induced water stress, jeopardizing food, energy and human water security in most arid and semi‐arid regions. Probabilistic analysis using stochastic optimization modeling can characterize multi‐sector vulnerabilities and risks associated with future water stress. This study identifies the probabilistic trade‐offs between agricultural, urban and energy sectors in the Ebro Basin (Spain). Two intervention policies have been examined and compared: (a) agricultural priority, and (b) energy priority, for two planning horizons 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. Results show that the human water security goal is achieved under both intervention policies. However, the achievement of the food and energy security goals depends on the policy objectives and on the spatial location of irrigation schemes and hydropower plants, which result in different stream flows across the basin. The policy choice results in substantially different benefit gains and losses by sector and therefore by location. None of the sectoral production priority policy provides an equitable sharing of benefits among all sectors and locations under climate change, which is an important issue, because the success or failure of policy interventions would depend on the distribution of the gains and losses of benefits across the basin. Policy uptake by stakeholders would depend on reaching win‐win outcomes where losers are compensated, while delivering acceptable levels of food, energy and human water security in large river basins. Information on the probabilistic trade‐offs contributes to the design of water management strategies capable of addressing the multi‐sector vulnerability.

10.1029/2024wr038514

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Cost-Effective Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Agriculture of Aragon, Spain

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (2021)

Safa Baccour José Albiac Taher Kahil

Climate change represents a serious threat to life in earth. Agriculture releases significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), but also offers low-cost opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions. This paper assesses agricultural GHG emissions in Aragon, one important and representative region for agriculture in Spain. The Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) approach is used to analyze the abatement potential and cost-efficiency of mitigation measures under several scenarios, with and without taking into account the interaction among measures and their transaction costs. The assessment identifies the environmental and economic outcomes of different combinations of measures, including crop, livestock and forest measures. Some of these measures are win-win, with pollution abatement at negative costs to farmers. Moreover, we develop future mitigation scenarios for agriculture toward the year 2050. Results highlight the trade-offs and synergies between the economic and environmental outcomes of mitigation measures. The biophysical processes underlying mitigation efforts are assessed taking into account the significant effects of interactions between measures. Interactions reduce the abatement potential and worsen the cost-efficiency of measures. The inclusion of transaction costs provides a better ranking of measures and a more accurate estimation of implementation costs. The scenario analysis shows how the combinations of measures could reduce emissions by up to 75% and promote sustainable agriculture in the future.

Marginal abatement cost

10.3390/ijerph18031084

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Citations (12)

Managing climate risks: new evidence from integrated analysis at the basin scale

International Journal of Water Resources Development (2024)

Safa Baccour José Albiac Frank A. Ward Taher Kahil Encarna Esteban

Scale analysis (mathematics)

10.1080/07900627.2024.2390937

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Citations (2)

Climate adaptation guidance: New roles for hydroeconomic analysis