Abstract The migration of people affects the geographical distribution of the population and the demographic composition of areas over the short, medium and long terms. To recognise and respond to the corresponding needs and challenges, including consequences for service provision, social cohesion and population health, there is a continuing need to understand migration patterns of the past and present. Area classifications are a useful tool to simplify the inherently complex data on migration flows and characteristics. Yet, existing classifications often lack direct migration measures or focus solely on cross‐sectional data. This study addresses these limitations by employing Group‐Based Multi‐Trajectory Modelling (GBMTM) to create a longitudinal, migration‐specific classification of Great Britain's wards from 1981 to 2011, using six migration indicators. Using U.K. census data, we reveal six distinct migration clusters that highlight the rapid growth in studentifying neighbourhoods, the continuous influx of migrants into inner cities, and a noticeable North–South divide in terms of movers' tenure enforced by persisting income selectivity. Additionally, the geographical distribution of clusters shows a common pattern in urban areas irrespective of size or location. The longitudinal perspective of our GBMTM classification highlights trends and changes in migration patterns that are not well reflected in either the general purpose or the cross‐sectional migration classification that we used as comparators. We conclude that the method presented and the classification generated offer a novel lens on migration and provide new opportunities to explore the effects of migration on a variety of outcomes and at various scales.
Background The correlates of physical activity in adults are relatively well studied. However, many studies use self-reported (‘reported’) measures of activity and we know little about the possible differences between the correlates of reported and objective (‘recorded’) measures of physical activity. We compared the correlates of reported and recorded time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in a sample of working adults. Methods In 2009, participants in the Commuting and Health in Cambridge study completed questionnaires assessing individual, socio-demographic, health and contextual characteristics. Recorded time spent in MVPA over seven days was ascertained using accelerometers and reported time spent in MVPA was assessed using the Recent Physical Activity Questionnaire (RPAQ). Correlates of MVPA were investigated using sex-specific linear regression models. Results 486 participants (70% women) provided both reported and recorded physical activity data. 89% recorded at least 30 minutes of MVPA per day. In men, none of the potential explanatory variables were associated with both reported and recorded time spent in MVPA. In women, of all the potential explanatory variables only that of having a standing or manual occupation was associated with both reported (+42 min/day; 95% CI 16.4 to 68.4, p = 0.001) and recorded (+9 min/day; 95% CI: 3.5 to 15.7, p = 0.002) time spent in MVPA. Discussion The use of an objective measure of physical activity may influence the correlates which are observed. Researchers may wish to consider using and analysing recorded and reported measures in combination to gain a more complete view of the correlates of physical activity.
Accurate assessment tools are required for the surveillance of physical activity (PA) levels and the assessment of the effect of interventions. In addition, increasing awareness of PA is often used as the first step in pragmatic behavioural interventions, as discrepancies between the amount of activity an individual perceives they do and the amount actually undertaken may act as a barrier to change. Previous research has demonstrated differences in the amount of activity individuals report doing, compared to their level of physical activity when measured with an accelerometer. Understanding the characteristics of those whose PA level is ranked differently when measured with either self-report or accelerometry is important as it may inform the choice of instrument for future research. The aim of this project was to determine which individual characteristics are associated with differences between self-reported and accelerometer measured physical activity.Participant data from the 2009 wave of the Commuting and Health in Cambridge study were used. Quartiles of self-reported and accelerometer-measured PA were derived by ranking each measure from lowest to highest. These quartiles were compared to determine whether individuals' physical activity was ranked higher by either method. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to investigate the individual characteristics associated with different categories of mismatch.Data from 486 participants (70% female) were included in the analysis. In adjusted analyses, the physical activity of overweight or obese individuals was significantly more likely to be ranked higher by self-report than by accelerometer than that of normal-weight individuals (OR = 2.07, 95%CI = 1.28-3.34), particularly among women (OR = 3.97, 95%CI = 2.11-7.47).There was a greater likelihood of mismatch between self-reported and accelerometer measured physical activity levels in overweight or obese adults. Future studies in overweight or obese adults should consider employing both methods of measurement.
Objective Commuting provides opportunities for regular physical activity which can reduce the risk of chronic disease. Commuters' mode of travel may be shaped by their environment, but understanding of which specific environmental characteristics are most important and might form targets for intervention is limited. This study investigated associations between mode choice and a range of objectively assessed environmental characteristics. Methods Participants in the Commuting and Health in Cambridge study reported where they lived and worked, their usual mode of travel to work and a variety of socio-demographic characteristics. Using geographic information system (GIS) software, 30 exposure variables were produced capturing characteristics of areas around participants' homes and workplaces and their shortest modelled routes to work. Associations between usual mode of travel to work and personal and environmental characteristics were investigated using multinomial logistic regression. Results Of the 1124 respondents, 50% reported cycling or walking as their usual mode of travel to work. In adjusted analyses, home-work distance was strongly associated with mode choice, particularly for walking. Lower odds of walking or cycling rather than driving were associated with a less frequent bus service (highest versus lowest tertile: walking OR 0.61 [95% CI 0.20–1.85]; cycling OR 0.43 [95% CI 0.23–0.83]), low street connectivity (OR 0.22, [0.07–0.67]; OR 0.48 [0.26–0.90]) and free car parking at work (OR 0.24 [0.10–0.59]; OR 0.55 [0.32–0.95]). Participants were less likely to cycle if they had access to fewer destinations (leisure facilities, shops and schools) close to work (OR 0.36 [0.21–0.62]) and a railway station further from home (OR 0.53 [0.30–0.93]). Covariates strongly predicted travel mode (pseudo r-squared 0.74). Conclusions Potentially modifiable environmental characteristics, including workplace car parking, street connectivity and access to public transport, are associated with travel mode choice, and could be addressed as part of transport policy and infrastructural interventions to promote active commuting.
Encouraging people out of their cars and into other modes of transport, which has major advantages for health, the environment and urban development, has proved difficult. Greater understanding of the influences that lead people to use the car, particularly for shorter journeys, may help to achieve this. This paper examines the predictors of car use compared with the bicycle to explore how it may be possible to persuade more people to use the bicycle instead of the car. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the socio-demographic, transport and health-related correlates of mode choice for work, shopping and leisure trips in Cambridge, a city with high levels of cycling by UK standards. The key findings are that commuting distance and free workplace parking were strongly associated with use of the car for work trips, and car availability and lower levels of education were associated with car use for leisure, shopping and short-distanced commuting trips. The case of Cambridge shows that more policies could be adopted, particularly a reduction in free car parking, to increase cycling and reduce the use of the car, especially over short distances.
BackgroundActive travel is increasingly recognised as an important source of physical activity. We aimed to describe associations between commute mode and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality.MethodsWe analysed data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales (ONS-LS), which linked data from the Census of England and Wales (henceforth referred to as the Census) for 1991, 2001, and 2011 to mortality and cancer registrations. The cohort included individuals traced in the ONS-LS who were economically active (ie, aged ≥16 years, not retired from work, and not a full-time carer). Commuting by private motorised transport, public transport, walking, and cycling were compared in terms of all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality, and cancer incidence, using Cox proportional-hazards models with time-varying covariates. Models were adjusted for age, sex, housing tenure, marital status, ethnicity, university education, car access, population density, socioeconomic classification, Carstairs index quintile, long-term illness, and year entered the study, and were additionally stratified by socioeconomic group.FindingsBetween the 1991 Census and the 2011 Census, 784 677 individuals contributed data for at least one Census, of whom 394 746 were included in the ONS-LS and were considered to be economically active working-age individuals. 13 983 people died, 3172 from cardiovascular disease and 6509 from cancer, and there were 20 980 incident cancer cases. In adjusted models, compared with commuting by private motorised vehicle, bicycle commuting was associated with a 20% reduced rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0·80, 95% CI 0·73–0·89), a 24% decreased rate of cardiovascular disease mortality (0·76, 0·61–0·93), a 16% lower rate of cancer mortality (0·84, 0·73–0·98), and an 11% reduced rate of incident cancer (0·89, 0·82–0·97). Compared with commuting by private motorised vehicle, rail commuters had a 10% lower rate of all-cause mortality (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·83–0·97) and a 21% decreased rate of cardiovascular disease mortality (0·79, 0·67–0·94), in addition to a 12% reduced rate of incident cancer (0·88, 0·83–0·94). Walk commuting was associated with 7% lower cancer incidence (HR 0·93, 95% CI 0·89–0·97) Stratified analyses did not indicate differences in associations between socioeconomic groups.InterpretationOur findings augment existing evidence for the beneficial health effects of physically active commute modes, particularly cycling and train use, and suggest that all socioeconomic groups could benefit.FundingNational Institute for Health Research.
“The road user should pay the costs that he/she imposes upon others.” So wrote Reuben Jacob Smeed in 1964, after being commissioned by the British government in 1962 to examine the technical feasibility of implementing road user charging (or “road pricing”).1Smeed RJ Road pricing : the economic and technical possibilities.https://archive.org/details/op1265810-1001Date: 1964Date accessed: October 13, 2020Google Scholar Smeed considered three main effects of road use: wear and tear on roads; congestion; and losses imposed on the community, including accidents, noise and fumes (which his report referred to as “social risks”).1Smeed RJ Road pricing : the economic and technical possibilities.https://archive.org/details/op1265810-1001Date: 1964Date accessed: October 13, 2020Google Scholar Scarcity of data precluded quantification of whether road user charging would ameliorate these “social risks”,1Smeed RJ Road pricing : the economic and technical possibilities.https://archive.org/details/op1265810-1001Date: 1964Date accessed: October 13, 2020Google Scholar which are today known to be major threats to health and the environment. Smeed nonetheless recommended charges for driving on congested roads to reflect the wider costs of motor vehicle use. Successive British governments have failed to implement these recommendations, although momentum is now building for greater use of road user charging in local areas in the UK and internationally. In this Comment, we argue that although there remain challenges to overcome regarding policy design and public acceptability, the time has come for a more widespread implementation of road user charges to achieve health and environmental goals. Road user charges can be considered as an attempt to make the costs that motorists pay more closely reflect the costs to others from externalities, such as air pollution. A range of terms are used interchangeably, including road user charging, value pricing, or congestion charging, but such schemes charge motorists to use roads within a certain area or during a specified time frame. Charges can be levied upon entering a specified area at toll points (such as motorway tolls), for crossing into an area (known as cordon charging), or for any use within a specified area (known as area charging). A range of options exist for implementation, which can include varying the amounts charged and exemptions or reduced fees for particular vehicles or groups of people. Charges can vary by time of day, vehicle class, or a combination of vehicle type and assessment of emission standards. There is also flexibility around how to use any revenue raised; most commentators agree that revenue raised from road user charges should be used to improve alternative transport options.2Winslott-Hiselius L Brundell-Freij K Vagland Å Byström C The development of public attitudes towards the Stockholm congestion trial.Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2009; 43: 269-282Crossref Scopus (78) Google Scholar Use of motor transport has increased substantially in the UK and globally since the Smeed report, as has the evidence linking motor vehicles to health and environmental harms. For example, in 1962, cars, vans, and taxis accounted for 57% of the passenger distance travelled in the UK, which had risen to 83% by 2016.3Department for Transport StatisticsTable TSGB01. Passenger transport, by mode: annual from 1952.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/482670/tsgb0101.xlsDate: 2017Date accessed: October 13, 2020Google Scholar Many of the recent road user charging schemes implemented in Europe have been driven by concerns about air pollution, which is an increasing focus of public concern. This is reflected in greater policy focus on creating low emission zones that focus not only on reducing the volume of private motor vehicle use, but also on substantially restricting the access of highly polluting vehicles.4Transport and the EnvironmentLow-emission zones are a success—but they must now move to zero-emission mobility.https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/2019_09_Briefing_LEZ-ZEZ_final.pdfDate: Sept, 2019Date accessed: October 13, 2020Google Scholar The direct evidence base for assessing these schemes is constrained by a low number of schemes in operation until very recently and a dearth of good-quality data. Natural experiments of previously implemented schemes have found stronger evidence for reducing traffic volumes than for health-related outcomes, although increases in physical activity due to switching to more active modes of transport, such as walking and cycling, have been identified.5Brown V Moodie M Carter R Congestion pricing and active transport—evidence from five opportunities for natural experiment.J Transp Health. 2015; 2: 568-579Crossref Scopus (11) Google Scholar Although the paucity of evaluations means that the evidence base is still emerging, we know that price is generally a much more important driver of consumer behaviour than education and information initiatives are. However, although price interventions are powerful, they tend to be politically contentious. In the UK, London led the way in 2003 with the first major road user charging system, the congestion charge, and in April, 2019, an extra levy was added to vehicles not meeting strict emission standards (known as the ultra-low emission zone). However, the congestion charge scheme suffered a setback in 2010, when the newly elected London mayor effectively halved the area covered by the scheme. The London example highlights the importance of building and maintaining public acceptability of road user charging before, during, and after implementation. This scheme followed a previously unsuccessful attempt by the centre-left Blair government to introduce a national road user charging scheme, which was dropped in 2007, after substantial negative media coverage and public outcry. However, growing popular concern about the health impacts of air pollution and the climate emergency could signal that road user charging is becoming more palatable to the public.6BBC NewsClimate strike: schoolchildren protest over climate change.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47250424Date: Feb 16, 2019Date accessed: October 13, 2020Google Scholar, 7Clayton N Jeffrey S Breach A Funding and financing inclusive growth in cities.http://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/17-12-11-Funding-and-Financing-for-Inclusive-Growth.pdfDate: Dec, 2017Date accessed: October 13, 2020Google Scholar Smeed was aware that one of the key criteria for any scheme to be effective was that effects “upon individual road users should be accepted as fair”.1Smeed RJ Road pricing : the economic and technical possibilities.https://archive.org/details/op1265810-1001Date: 1964Date accessed: October 13, 2020Google Scholar One important issue is that road user charging should not necessarily be uniform across geographical areas, to address the different needs, costs, and benefits of motorised transport between rural and urban settings.8Creutzig F Javaid A Koch N Knopf B Mattioli G Edenhofer O Adjust urban and rural road pricing for fair mobility.Nat Clim Chang. 2020; 10: 591-594Crossref Scopus (9) Google Scholar Residents in urban areas generally have access to alternative transport options, and trips typically involve shorter distances, which are more amenable to using non-motorised transport modes. The use of any revenue raised by road user charges is another opportunity to enhance its acceptability if it is done well. The acceptability of such schemes differs across sociodemographic groups, and many could feel negative about schemes, which they perceive as overly punitive.9Nikitas A Avineri E Parkhurst G Understanding the public acceptability of road pricing and the roles of older age, social norms, pro-social values and trust for urban policy-making: the case of Bristol.Cities. 2018; 79: 78-91Crossref Scopus (32) Google Scholar Road user charges are most likely to work well if there are clear but strong signals to motorists to avoid driving, which are connected to visible benefits for large sections of society. The Smeed report was correct in 1964 to state that the costs of road use should more closely reflect the costs borne by others. Since then, the factors that shape the way in which vehicles and people travel have changed substantially, including the direct and indirect costs of motor vehicles. Road user charging represents a promising but under-used mechanism to reduce motor vehicle use, thereby reducing harms and allowing investment in alternative options. There is the potential, as ever, for unintended harms, and as such schemes are planned and implemented, there is an important role for the research community to work in partnership with policy makers to assess their health and equity effects. Nonetheless, the climate emergency means that the time for widespread implementation of road user charging has now arrived. JP reports grants from the Medical Research Council during the conduct of this study. This study is linked to a research project funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research, School for Public Health Research (grant PD-SPH-2015).
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