In order to be able to forecast the weather and estimate future climate changes in the ocean, it is crucial to understand the past and the mechanisms responsible for the ocean variability. This is particularly true in a complex area such as the Mediterranean Sea with diverse dynamics like deep convection and overturning circulation. To this end, effective tools are ocean reanalyses or reconstructions of the past ocean state. Here we present a new physical reanalysis of the Mediterranean Sea at high resolution, developed in the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) framework. The hydrodynamic model is based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) combined with a variational data assimilation scheme (OceanVar). The model has a horizontal resolution of 1/24° and 141 unevenly distributed vertical z* levels. It provides daily and monthly temperature, salinity, current, sea level and mixed layer depth as well as hourly fields for surface velocities and sea level. ECMWF ERA-5 atmospheric fields force the model and daily boundary conditions in the Atlantic are taken from a global reanalysis. The reanalysis covers the 33 years from 1987 to 2019. Initialized from SeaDataNet climatology in January 1985, it reaches a nominal state after a 2-years spin-up. In-situ data from CTD, ARGO floats and XBT are assimilated into the model in combination with satellite altimetry observations. This reanalysis has been validated and assessed through comparison to in-situ and satellite observations as well as literature climatologies. The results show an overall improvement of the comparison with observations and a better representation of the main dynamics of the region compared to a previous, lower resolution (1/16°), reanalysis. Temperature and salinity RMSD are decreased by respectively 14 and 18%. The salinity biases at depth of the previous version are corrected. Climate signals show continuous increase of the temperature and salinity, confirming estimates from observations and other reanalysis. The new reanalysis will allow the study of physical processes at multi-scales, from the large scale to the transient small mesoscale structures and the selection of climate indicators for the basin.
Abstract. The Mediterranean Sea is a quasi-permanently stratified and oligotrophic basin with intense late-winter and early-spring phytoplankton blooms typically limited to few regions (i.e. northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the southern Adriatic Sea, and the Rhodes Gyre). In these areas, blooms are sustained by nutrient injection to surface layers by winter vertical mixing and convective processes. A markedly intense bloom was predicted in spring 2022 in an unusual area of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea (i.e. southeast of Crete) by the Mediterranean Sea Copernicus Marine Forecasting Centre (MED MFC) system. Combining Copernicus modelling and observation products, the 2022 event and a number of driving and concurrent features have been investigated in a multidisciplinary way. A noticeable cold spell that occurred in Eastern Europe at the beginning of 2022 has been identified as the main driver of an intense deep-water formation event, with associated high nutrient concentrations in the surface layers. Consequently, an extreme phytoplankton bloom that was 50 % more intense than usual occurred in the area southeast of Crete, starting nearly 1 month later than usual and lasting for 3–4 weeks. Impacts on primary production were also relevant in the 2022 event area and were 35 % higher than the climatological annual primary production. Furthermore, the documented link between primary productivity and fishery catches suggests possible consequences along the whole food chain up to the marine ecosystem in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Abstract. The Mediterranean Forecasting Systems produces operational analyses, reanalyses and 10-day forecasts for many Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs), from currents, temperature to wind waves and pelagic biogeochemistry. The products are available at a horizontal resolution of 1/24 degrees (approximately 4 km) and 141 unevenly spaced vertical levels. The core of the Mediterranean Forecasting System is constituted by the physical (PHY), the biogeochemical (BIO) and the wave (WAV) components coupled offline, consisting of both numerical models and data assimilation modules. The 3 components together constitute the so-called Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (Med-MFC) of the Copernicus Marine Service. Daily 10-day forecasts are produced by the PHY, BIO and WAV components as well as analyses, while reanalyses are produced for the past 30 years about every ~3 years and extended (yearly). The modelling systems, their coupling strategy and evolution is illustrated in detail. For the first time, the quality of the products is documented in terms of skill metrics evaluated on a common three-year period (2018–2020), giving the first complete assessment of uncertainties for all the Mediterranean environmental variable analyses.
<p>In order to be able to predict the future ocean climate and weather, we need to understand what happened in the past and the mechanisms responsible for the ocean variability. This is particularly true in a complex area such as the Mediterranean Sea with diverse dynamics such as deep convection and thermohaline circulation or coastal hydrodynamics. To this end, effective tools are reanalyses or reconstructions of the past ocean state.&#160;</p><p>Here we present a new physical reanalysis of the Mediterranean Sea at high resolution, developed in the CMEMS Med-MFC framework. The hydrodynamic model is based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) combined with a variational data assimilation scheme (OceanVAR). A series of system developments have been carried out to upgrade the current Med-MFC reanalysis to the new one with high resolution, including new NEMO version and configuration, the new version of atmospheric forcing (ERA-5) datasets and revised OceanVAR scheme.</p><p>The model has a horizontal resolution of 1/24<strong>&#176;</strong> and 141 vertical z* levels and provides daily and monthly 3D values of temperature, salinity, sea level and currents. Hourly ERA-5 atmospheric fields force the model and daily boundary conditions in the Atlantic are taken from the global CMCC C-GLORS reanalysis. 39 rivers model the freshwater input to the basin plus the Dardanelles. The reanalysis covers 30-years, initialized from World Ocean Atlas climatology in January 1985, getting to a nominal state after a two years spin-up and ending in 2018. In-situ data from CTD, ARGO floats, XBT are assimilated into the model in combination with satellite altimetry data.</p><p>This reanalysis has been validated and assessed through comparison to in-situ and satellite observations as well as literature climatologies. The results show good agreement with observations and a better representation of the main dynamics of the region compared to the previous, lower resolution (1/16<strong>&#176;</strong>) reanalysis. The new reanalysis will allow the study of physical processes at multi-scales, from the large scale to the transient small mesoscale structures.</p>