Felipe Vemado

Universidade de São Paulo

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Augusto José Pereira Filho

Universidade de São Paulo

Hugo Abi Karam

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

Fábio Augusto Gomes Vieira Reis

Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)

José Luis Flores Rojas

Instituto Geofísico del Perú

Valéry Masson

Météo-France

Maria del Carmen Sanz Lopez

Universidade de São Paulo

Marcelo Fischer Gramani

Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas

Fernando Mazo D’Affonseca

Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)

Jorge Luiz Diaz Pinaya

Universidade de São Paulo

Agostinho Tadashi Ogura

Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas

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Universidade de São Paulo

Instituto de Geociencias

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)

Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier

Institute of Geosciences

Université de Montpellier

Institut de Recherche pour le Développement

Hospital Universitário da Universidade de São Paulo

Weatherford College

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ARPS Simulations of Convection during TOMACS

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser II (2018)

Augusto José Pereira Filho Felipe Vemado Kazuo Saito Hiromu Seko José Luis Flores Rojas

The Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study (TOMACS) for extreme-weather-resilient cities is a research and development project (RDP) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). TOMACS provided a multiplatform and high spatiotemporal resolution dataset for the present research on three episodes of deep convection in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) under its heat island effect and sea breeze circulations. Heavy rainfall episodes of August 26, 2011, and July 23 and August 12, 2013, were simulated with (and without) the tropical town energy budget (T-TEB) model coupled with the advanced regional prediction system (ARPS). The T-TEB/ARPS system used initial and boundary conditions from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale analysis data for 24-hour integration runs at 5-km resolution over Japan and at 1-km resolution over TOMACS area. The 1-km resolution hourly rainfall field simulations were verified against the respective automated meteorological data acquisition system (AMeDAS) rain gauge network measurements. Statistics of the Contingency tables were obtained to estimate the critical success index (CSI), probability of detection (POD), and false alarm rate (FAR) as well as the root mean square error (RMSE). The T-TEB/ARPS simulations improved the south and east sea breeze circulations of TMA and its urban heat island effect. The time evolution of CSI scores improved within the advective time scale, whereas dissipation (phase) errors on precipitation RMSE increased with the integration time and were larger than the dispersion (amplitude) errors. The initial and boundary conditions of JMA greatly improved the simulations as compared to the previous ones performed with the outputs of NCEP's global forecast system as indicated by the TOMACS datasets. Thus, the results represent the temporal and spatial evolutions of the atmospheric conditions leading to the development of a deep convection within TOMACS region. Furthermore, TMA is a good testbed to evaluate the urban surface schemes, such as T-TEB in this study.

10.2151/jmsj.2018-030

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Citations (7)

Operational Hydrometeorological Forecast System for Espírito Santo State, Brazil

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (2015)

Augusto José Pereira Filho José D. Pereira Felipe Vemado Ivon W. Silva

An Operational Hydrometeorological Forecast System for Espírito Santo State (HESS), Brazil, is described with special emphasis on civil protection, agriculture and harbor applications, which are heavily dependent on present and future weather conditions between 30 min to 15 days time interval. There is an urgent need for weather services based on high-performance processing systems; ultra high resolution numerical weather prediction systems; higher spatial and temporal resolution monitoring systems; integrated environmental information systems; faster communications systems; and advanced science and technology to yield specific diagnostic and prognostic weather products. The main components of the HESS are described.

Hydrometeorology

Weather prediction

10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0001215

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Citations (2)

A Step towards Integrating CMORPH Precipitation Estimation with Rain Gauge Measurements

Advances in Meteorology (2018)

Augusto José Pereira Filho Felipe Vemado Guilherme Vemado Fábio Augusto Gomes Vieira Reis Lucília do Carmo Giordano

Accurate daily rainfall estimation is required in several applications such as in hydrology, hydrometeorology, water resources management, geomorphology, civil protection, and agriculture, among others. CMORPH daily rainfall estimations were integrated with rain gauge measurements in Brazil between 2000 and 2015, in order to reduce daily rainfall estimation errors by means of the statistical objective analysis scheme (SOAS). Early comparisons indicated high discrepancies between daily rain gauge rainfall measurements and respective CMORPH areal rainfall accumulation estimates that tended to be reduced with accumulation time span (e.g., yearly accumulation). Current results show CMORPH systematically underestimates daily rainfall accumulation along the coastal areas. The normalized error variance (NEXERVA) is higher in sparsely gauged areas at Brazilian North and Central-West regions. Monthly areal rainfall averages and standard deviation were obtained for eleven Brazilian watersheds. While an overall negative tendency (3 mm·h −1 ) was estimated, the Amazon watershed presented a long-term positive tendency. Monthly areal mean precipitation and respective spatial standard deviation closely follow a power-law relationship for data-rich watersheds, i.e., with denser rain gauge networks. Daily SOAS rainfall accumulation was also used to calculate the spatial distribution of frequencies of 3-day rainfall episodes greater than 100 mm. Frequencies greater than 3% were identified downwind of the Peruvian Andes, the Bolivian Amazon Basin, and the La Plata Basin, as well as along the Brazilian coast, where landslides are recurrently triggered by precipitation.

Hydrometeorology

10.1155/2018/2095304

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Citations (27)

Effects of Explicit Urban-Canopy Representation on Local Circulations Above a Tropical Mega-City

Boundary-Layer Meteorology (2017)

José Luis Flores Rojas Augusto José Pereira Filho Hugo Abi Karam Felipe Vemado Valéry Masson

Sea breeze

Urban Heat Island

10.1007/s10546-017-0292-8

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Citations (15)

Análise da circulação de brisa marítima e seus impactos sobre a precipitação na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo por meio do modelo ARPS

Felipe Vemado

Sea breeze events (SB) are common in Metropolitan area at São Paulo (MASP).Particularly, in the summer, SB triggers over MASP deep convection, heavy rainfall, wind gusts, hail and lightning.OLIVEIRA and SILVA DIAS (1982) method was used to identify the SB events.SB events between 2005 and 2008 were analysed by means of surface and upper air measurements, weather radar, satellite and numerical modelling.In general, the SB front penetrates in MASP between midafternoon and evening increasing dew point.Moreover, the warmer urban environment tends to intensify storms that produce flooding, falling trees, among other large socioeconomic impacts.The annual rainfall partition due to SB was estimated using the São Paulo weather radar.The results indicate a core of maximum rainfall accumulation of 600 mm over MASP, much larger than that in the vicinity.The modelling with ARPS allowed simulate conditions spatial average in low, medium and upper levels of several variables of the analysed events.Moreover, the ARPS system was used to simulate SB with control and specific runs.Results suggest significant impact of surface cover on rainfall distribution.MXPOL weather radar measurements of SB were important in detecting and nowcasting SB inflow at very high spatial and temporal resolution.

Dew point

Weather radar

10.11606/d.14.2012.tde-18062012-152102

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Citations (0)

Evidence of Tornadoes and Microbursts in São Paulo State, Brazil: A Synoptic and Mesoscale Analysis

Pure and Applied Geophysics (2019)

Augusto José Pereira Filho Felipe Vemado Hugo Abi Karam

Microburst

Jet stream

Cold front

Severe weather

Synoptic scale meteorology

10.1007/s00024-019-02276-3

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Citations (4)

Microphysical and Dynamical Climatology of Precipitating Systems Inferred by Weather Radar Polarimetric Measurements in Brazil

Open Journal of Modern Hydrology (2022)

Augusto José Pereira Filho Felipe Vemado

This work presents the climatology of the microphysics and the dynamics of weather systems in two coastal areas of São Paulo and the Espírito States at high spatial-temporal resolution as measured by two dual Doppler weather radars during the summer and early fall of 2015. Averages and respective standard deviations of polarimetric variables, namely, reflectivity (Z), differential reflectivity (ZDR), differential phase (ϕDP), specific differential phase (KDP), copolar correlation coefficient (ρoHV), radial velocity (Vr), and the spectral width (W) were obtained within a 240-km range on plan position indicator (PPI), constant altitude plan position indicator (CAPPI) and vertical cross-sections to analyze overall horizontal and vertical precipitation microphysics and mesoscale circulation of prevailing weather systems, and their peculiarities over coastal and oceanic, and urban and rural areas. Overall, raindrops tend to be larger over the Metropolitan area of São Paulo from the surface to up to 6 km altitude indicating more vigorous updrafts caused by the heat island effect and the local sea breeze. The vertical microphysical structure is remarkably distinct over the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) where thunderstorms can reach 20-km altitude in summertime under sea breeze and heat island effects. On the other hand, there is a dominancy of smaller drop sizes though larger ones observed close to the surface by the coast of Espírito Santo and at the land-ocean interface influenced by the local low-level jet and oceanic-type CCN. Convective cells tend to be smaller associated with Easterlies and more organized with Westerlies. The results indicate distinct features on hydrometeor types and circulation characteristics under these different surface and boundary-layer conditions in close agreement with previous results in the literature.

Sea breeze

Weather radar

Mesoscale convective system

10.4236/ojmh.2022.122005

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Citations (0)

Dinâmica das tempestades sobre o Lago Vitória, África

Felipe Vemado

10.11606/t.14.2018.tde-30102018-135529

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Severe Weather Caused by Heat Island and Sea Breeze Effects in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, Brazil

Advances in Meteorology (2015)

Felipe Vemado Augusto José Pereira Filho

The Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) is one of the most populated regions of the planet with one of the largest impervious regions as well. This research work aims to characterize MASP heat island (HI) effect and its interaction with the local sea breeze (SB) inflow in rainfall amounts and deep convection. The combined SB-HI produces direct circulation over the MASP and produces severe weather and socioeconomic impacts. All SB-HI episodes between 2005 and 2008 are identified and analyzed with surface and upper air measurements, weather radar, and satellite data. The current work indicates that intense SB-HI episodes are related to air and dew point temperatures above 30°C and 20°C, respectively, right after the passage of the SB front over MASP. Results indicate that the precipitation related to SB-HI episodes is up to 600 mm or about four times higher than that in rural or less urbanized areas in its surroundings. Measurements indicate that 74% of SB-HI episodes are related to NW winds in earlier afternoon hours. Moving cold fronts in southern Brazil tend to intensify the SB-HI circulation in MASP. A conceptual model of these patterns is presented in this paper.

Urban Heat Island

Dew point

Sea breeze

Impervious surface

Cold front

10.1155/2016/8364134

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Citations (46)

Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Mountainous Region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Climate (2023)

Maria del Carmen Sanz Lopez Jorge Luiz Diaz Pinaya Augusto José Pereira Filho Felipe Vemado Fábio Augusto Gomes Vieira Reis

Extreme rainfall events cause diverse loss of life and economic losses. These disasters include flooding, landslides, and erosion. For these intense rainfall events, one can statistically estimate the time when a given rainfall volume will occur. Initially, this work estimated rainfall volumes for the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro, and the frequency with which rainfall events occur. For this, we analyzed daily precipitation data using the ANOBES method and the Gumbel statistical distribution to estimate return times. Extreme prec’ipitation volumes of up to 240 mm per day were identified in some locations, with 100 years or more return periods. On 11 January 2011 precipitation volumes were high, but on 12 January they were extreme, similar to the 100-year return time data. The analysis method presented enables the determination of the return time of heavy rainfall, assisting in the prevention of its effects. Knowledge of the atmospheric configuration enables decision support. The atmospheric systems that combined to cause the event were local circulations (orographic and sea breeze) and large-scale systems (SACZ and frontal systems).

Orographic lift

Orography

Gumbel distribution

Return period

10.3390/cli11030073

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Citations (10)