In order to scientifically and reasonably assess the risk of water inrush from the coal seam floor, considering the influence of natural environmental factors such as hydrogeology, mining, and human intervention, the PSR model of ecosystem health evaluation was introduced, and the risk evaluation indicator system of water inrush from the coal seam floor was established. In order to solve the randomness and fuzziness of water inrush event evaluation, the evaluation model is constructed based on extension cloud theory and is applied in the 12123 working face of Pan Er coal mine of Huainan Mining Group. The application results show that the evaluation results are basically consistent with the actual situation, which shows that the model can be used in the actual evaluation work and is scientific.
The domino event caused by fire is one of the common accidents in hydrocarbon storage tank farms, which further expands the severity and scope of the accident. Due to the different failure sequence of the storage tanks in a domino accident, the radiant heat generated by the failed storage tank to the target tank is different. Based on the influence of this synergistic effect, this study combined the Monte Carlo algorithm and FSEM, and proposed a fast real-time probability calculation method for a fire domino accident in a storage tank area, for the first time. This method uses the Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate all accident scenarios, and obtains the evolution of multiple escalation fire domino accidents under the synergistic effect according to FSEM, and then calculates the real-time failure probability and risk. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the accident propagation path, this method avoids the problem of a large amount of calculation, and is conducive to the rapid and effective analysis of the fire risk in a storage tank area and the formulation of corresponding risk reduction measures. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method were proved by a case study.
The results of the first marine gas hydrate drilling expedition of Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey (GMGS-1) in northern continental slope of the South China Sea revealed a variable distribution of gas hydrates in the Shenhu area. In this study, comparisons between the eight sites with gas-hydrate petroleum system were used to analyze and re-examine hydrate potential. In the Shenhu gas hydrate drilling area, all the sites were located in a suitable low-temperature, high-pressure environment. Biogenic and thermogenic gases contributed to the formation of hydrates. Gas chimneys and some small-scale faults (or micro-scale fractures) compose the migration pathways for gas-bearing fluids. Between these sites, there are three key differences: the seafloor temperatures and pressures; geothermal gradient and sedimentary conditions. Variations of seafloor temperatures and pressures related to water depths and geothermal gradient would lead to changes in the thickness of gas hydrate stability zones. Although the lithology and grain size of the sediments were similar, two distinct sedimentary units were identified for the first time through seismic interpretation, analysis of deep-water sedimentary processes, and the Cm pattern (plotted one-percentile and median values from grain-size analyses), implying the heterogeneous sedimentary conditions above Bottom Simulating Reflectors (BSRs). Based on the analyses of forming mechanisms and sedimentary processes, these two fine-grained sedimentary units have different physical properties. Fine-grained turbidites (Unit I) with thin-bedded chaotic reflectors at the bottom acted as the host rocks for hydrates; whereas, finegrained sediments related to soft-sediment deformation (Unit II) characterized by thick continuous reflectors at the top would serve as regional homogeneous caprocks. Low-flux methane that migrated upwards along chimneys could be enriched preferentially in fine-grained turbidites, resulting in the formation of hydrates within Unit I.However, overlying fine-grained sediments related to soft-sediment deformation would hinder the further migration of gases/fluids, causing the extremely low methane concentration in Unit I. Three of the eight sites with hydrates from recovered core samples were located within sedimentary Unit I, and the other five sites were not. Because, the most significant difference between the eight sites is the nature and type of sedimentary deposits above the BSRs, it is suggested therefore that sedimentary conditions are the crucial factor controlling the formation and occurrence of gas hydrates in the Shenhu gas hydrate drilling area, northern South China Sea.
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