Dengue is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness caused by four mosquito-transmitted dengue viruses (DENV-1–4). Although dengue outbreaks regularly occur in many regions of the Pacific, little is known about dengue in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). To better understand dengue in RMI, we investigated an explosive outbreak that began in October 2011. Suspected cases were reported to the Ministry of Health, serum specimens were tested with a dengue rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and confirmatory testing was performed using RT-PCR and IgM ELISA. Laboratory-positive cases were defined by detection of DENV nonstructural protein 1 by RDT, DENV nucleic acid by RT-PCR, or anti-DENV IgM antibody by RDT or ELISA. Secondary infection was defined by detection of anti-DENV IgG antibody by ELISA in a laboratory-positive acute specimen. During the four months of the outbreak, 1,603 suspected dengue cases (3% of the RMI population) were reported. Of 867 (54%) laboratory-positive cases, 209 (24%) had dengue with warning signs, six (0.7%) had severe dengue, and none died. Dengue incidence was highest in residents of Majuro and individuals aged 10–29 years, and ∼95% of dengue cases were experiencing secondary infection. Only DENV-4 was detected by RT-PCR, which phylogenetic analysis demonstrated was most closely related to a virus previously identified in Southeast Asia. Cases of vertical DENV transmission, and DENV/Salmonella Typhi and DENV/Mycobacterium leprae co-infection were identified. Entomological surveys implicated water storage containers and discarded tires as the most important development sites for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Although this is the first documented dengue outbreak in RMI, the age groups of cases and high prevalence of secondary infection demonstrate prior DENV circulation. Dengue surveillance should continue to be strengthened in RMI and throughout the Pacific to identify and rapidly respond to future outbreaks.
The population of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi), the causative agent of typhoid fever, exhibits limited DNA sequence variation, which complicates efforts to rationally discriminate individual isolates. Here we utilize data from whole-genome sequences (WGS) of nearly 2,000 isolates sourced from over 60 countries to generate a robust genotyping scheme that is phylogenetically informative and compatible with a range of assays. These data show that, with the exception of the rapidly disseminating H58 subclade (now designated genotype 4.3.1), the global S. Typhi population is highly structured and includes dozens of subclades that display geographical restriction. The genotyping approach presented here can be used to interrogate local S. Typhi populations and help identify recent introductions of S. Typhi into new or previously endemic locations, providing information on their likely geographical source. This approach can be used to classify clinical isolates and provides a universal framework for further experimental investigations.
Background From late 2014 multiple atolls in Kiribati reported an unusual and sometimes fatal illness. We conducted an investigation to identify the etiology of the outbreak on the most severely affected atoll, Kuria, and identified thiamine deficiency disease as the cause. Thiamine deficiency disease has not been reported in the Pacific islands for >5 decades. We present the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory findings of the investigation. Methodology/Principal findings We initially conducted detailed interviews and examinations on previously identified cases to characterize the unknown illness and develop a case definition. Active and passive surveillance was then conducted to identify additional cases. A questionnaire to identify potential risk factors and blood samples to assay biochemical indices were collected from cases and asymptomatic controls. Thiamine hydrochloride treatment was implemented and the response to treatment was systematically monitored using a five-point visual analogue scale and by assessing resolution of previously abnormal neurological examination findings. Risk factors and biochemical results were assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses. 69 cases were identified on Kuria (7% attack rate) including 34 confirmed and 35 unconfirmed. Most were adults (median age 28 years [range 0–62]) and 83% were male. Seven adult males and two infants died (13% case fatality rate). Resolution of objective clinical signs (78%) or symptoms (94%) were identified within one week of starting treatment. Risk factors included having a friend with thiamine deficiency disease and drinking kava; drinking yeast alcohol reduced the risk of disease. Higher chromium (p<0·001) but not thiamine deficiency (p = 0·66) or other biochemical indices were associated with disease by univariate analyses. Chromium (p<0·001) and thiamine deficiency (p = 0·02) were associated with disease by multivariate analysis. Conclusions/Significance An outbreak of thiamine deficiency disease (beriberi) in Kiribati signals the re-emergence of a classic nutritional disease in the Pacific islands after five decades. Although treatment is safe and effective, the underlying reason for the re-emergence remains unknown. Chromium was highly and positively correlated with disease in this study raising questions about the potential role of factors other than thiamine in the biochemistry and pathophysiology of clinical disease.
Abstract Antibodies serve as biomarkers of infection, but if sustained can confer long-term immunity. Yet, for most clinically approved vaccines, binding antibody titers only serve as a surrogate of protection. Instead, the ability of vaccine induced antibodies to neutralize or mediate Fc-effector functions is mechanistically linked to protection. While evidence has begun to point to persisting antibody responses among SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals, cases of re-infection have begun to emerge, calling the protective nature of humoral immunity against this highly infectious pathogen into question. Using a community-based surveillance study, we aimed to define the relationship between titers and functional antibody activity to SARS-CoV-2 over time. Here we report significant heterogeneity, but limited decay, across antibody titers amongst 120 identified seroconverters, most of whom had asymptomatic infection. Notably, neutralization, Fc-function, and SARS-CoV-2 specific T cell responses were only observed in subjects that elicited RBD-specific antibody titers above a threshold. The findings point to a switch-like relationship between observed antibody titer and function, where a distinct threshold of activity—defined by the level of antibodies—is required to elicit vigorous humoral and cellular response. This response activity level may be essential for durable protection, potentially explaining why re-infections occur with SARS-CoV-2 and other common coronaviruses.
Empirical data on contact patterns can inform dynamic models of infectious disease transmission. Such information has not been widely reported from Pacific islands, nor strongly multi-ethnic settings, and few attempts have been made to quantify contact patterns relevant for the spread of gastrointestinal infections. As part of enteric fever investigations, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of the general public in Fiji, finding that within the 9,650 mealtime contacts reported by 1,814 participants, there was strong like-with-like mixing by age and ethnicity, with higher contact rates amongst iTaukei than non-iTaukei Fijians. Extra-domiciliary lunchtime contacts follow these mixing patterns, indicating the overall data do not simply reflect household structures. Inter-ethnic mixing was most common amongst school-age children. Serological responses indicative of recent Salmonella Typhi infection were found to be associated, after adjusting for age, with increased contact rates between meal-sharing iTaukei, with no association observed for other contact groups. Animal ownership and travel within the geographical division were common. These are novel data that identify ethnicity as an important social mixing variable, and use retrospective mealtime contacts as a socially acceptable metric of relevance to enteric, contact and respiratory diseases that can be collected in a single visit to participants. Application of these data to other island settings will enable communicable disease models to incorporate locally relevant mixing patterns in parameterisation.
Abstract Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.
Leptospirosis is a globally important zoonotic disease, with complex exposure pathways that depend on interactions between human beings, animals, and the environment. Major drivers of outbreaks include flooding, urbanisation, poverty, and agricultural intensification. The intensity of these drivers and their relative importance vary between geographical areas; however, non-spatial regression methods are incapable of capturing the spatial variations. This study aimed to explore the use of geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) to provide insights into the ecoepidemiology of human leptospirosis in Fiji.
Methods
We obtained field data from a cross-sectional community survey done in 2013 in the three main islands of Fiji. A blood sample obtained from each participant (aged 1–90 years) was tested for anti-Leptospira antibodies and household locations were recorded using GPS receivers. We used GWLR to quantify the spatial variation in the relative importance of five environmental and sociodemographic covariates (cattle density, distance to river, poverty rate, residential setting [urban or rural], and maximum rainfall in the wettest month) on leptospirosis transmission in Fiji. We developed two models, one using GWLR and one with standard logistic regression; for each model, the dependent variable was the presence or absence of anti-Leptospira antibodies. GWLR results were compared with results obtained with standard logistic regression, and used to produce a predictive risk map and maps showing the spatial variation in odds ratios (OR) for each covariate.
Findings
The dataset contained location information for 2046 participants from 1922 households representing 81 communities. The Aikaike information criterion value of the GWLR model was 1935·2 compared with 1254·2 for the standard logistic regression model, indicating that the GWLR model was more efficient. Both models produced similar OR for the covariates, but GWLR also detected spatial variation in the effect of each covariate. Maximum rainfall had the least variation across space (median OR 1·30, IQR 1·27–1·35), and distance to river varied the most (1·45, 1·35–2·05). The predictive risk map indicated that the highest risk was in the interior of Viti Levu, and the agricultural region and southern end of Vanua Levu.
Interpretation
GWLR provided a valuable method for modelling spatial heterogeneity of covariates for leptospirosis infection and their relative importance over space. Results of GWLR could be used to inform more place-specific interventions, particularly for diseases with strong environmental or sociodemographic drivers of transmission.
Funding
WHO, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council, University of Queensland, UK Medical Research Council, Chadwick Trust.
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