Observations made during the historic 2005 hurricane season document a case of "eyewall replacement." Clouds outside the hurricane eyewall coalesce to form a new eyewall at a greater radius from the storm center, and the old eyewall dies. The winds in the new eyewall are initially weaker than those in the original eyewall, but as the new eyewall contracts, the storm reintensifies. Understanding this replacement mechanism is vital to forecasting variations in hurricane intensity. Processes in the "moat" region between the new and old eyewall have been particularly unclear. Aircraft data now show that the moat becomes dynamically similar to the eye and thus is converted into a region inimical to survival of the inner eyewall. We suggest that targeting aircraft to key parts of the storm to gain crucial input to high-resolution numerical models can lead to improvements in forecasting hurricane intensity.
Radar reflectivity and raingage data obtained during six springtimes indicate the types of mesoscale organization that occur in association with major rain events in Oklahoma (at least 25 mm of rain in 24 h over an area exceeding 12 500 km2). In these storms the primary rain area is found to be a contiguous region of precipitation 10s to 100s of km in scale that consists partly of deep convection and partly of stratiform rain. The patterns of rain formed by the convective and stratiform areas comprise a continuous spectrum of mesoscale structures. About two-thirds of the cases examined exhibited variations on the type of organization in which convective cells arranged in a moving line are followed by a region of stratiform rain. Storm organization was graded according to the degree to which it matched an idealized model of this "leading-line/trailing-stratiform" structure. The precipitation pattern was further graded according to whether its structure was relatively symmetric with respect to an axis normal to and passing through the midpoint of the line, or asymmetric, in which case the storm was biased toward having stronger, more discrete convective structure at the upwind (south or southwestern) end of the line and/or the most extensive stratiform precipitation behind the downwind (north to northeastern) end of the line. About one-third of the cases examined displayed much more chaotic, unclassifiable arrangements of convective and stratiform areas. Among the cases with leading-line/trailing-stratiform structure, severe weather was most frequent in systems with (i) a strong degree of leading-line/trailing-stratiform structure, in which a solid, relatively uniform, are-shaped line had stratiform rain centered symmetrically behind it, and (ii) a weaker degree of leading-line/trailing-stratiform structure in which a southwest-northeast line was biased toward having narrow, intensely convective, irregularly spaced cell structure at its southwestern (upwind) end and stratiform rain confined to the region behind the broader northeastern (downwind) portion of the line. Although all mesoscale organization types were characterized by all types of severe weather, the type (ii) cases were the most prolific category in terms of tornado and hail production, while type (i) cases were prone to be associated with flooding. The chaotic, unclassifiable cases, which exhibited no line organization, had just as much severe weather as the cases with line organization, but were more likely to produce hail and somewhat less likely to produce tornadoes and flooding than the systems with line structure. Major rain events occurred whenever a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) was passing over the study area, unless the MCC was dissipating or merely skirting the area. However, 75% of the major rain events occurred under cloud shields that failed to meet the MCC criteria explicitly, although they often resembled MCCs qualitatively. No particular type of mesoscale radar-echo organization was favored when cloud shields meeting the MCC criteria were observed. A slight preference for the more chaotic type of organization was suggested; however, the data sample is not large enough for this finding to be regarded as conclusive. Mean soundings and hodographs generally show no sign of a low-level jet in environments associated with chaotically arranged rain areas that lacked any line structure. On the other hand, a low-level jet and resulting curved hodograph were typically associated with cases in which line organization was evident. The wind shear in the low-to-mid troposphere, the bulk Richardson number and other familiar parameters characterizing squall fine environments are consistent with results from recent modeling studies. When leading-line/trailing-stratiform structure was present, the cross-line shear in the environment was of a magnitude associated with model simulations in which a rearward sloping updraft circulation favorable to trailing-stratiform anvil formation quickly develops. The along-line component of shear was greater when the squall system structure was of the asymmetric type and the degree of leading-line/trailing-stratiform structure was not as strong, i.e. in those mesoscale systems favoring tornado occurrence.
Abstract This study combines high-resolution mesoscale model simulations and comprehensive airborne Doppler radar observations to identify kinematic structures influencing the production and mesoscale distribution of precipitation and microphysical processes during a period of heavy prefrontal orographic rainfall over the Cascade Mountains of Oregon on 13–14 December 2001 during the second phase of the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE-2) field program. Airborne-based radar detection of precipitation from well upstream of the Cascades to the lee allows a depiction of terrain-induced wave motions in unprecedented detail. Two distinct scales of mesoscale wave–like air motions are identified: 1) a vertically propagating mountain wave anchored to the Cascade crest associated with strong midlevel zonal (i.e., cross barrier) flow, and 2) smaller-scale (<20-km horizontal wavelength) undulations over the windward foothills triggered by interaction of the low-level along-barrier flow with multiple ridge–valley corrugations oriented perpendicular to the Cascade crest. These undulations modulate cloud liquid water (CLW) and snow mixing ratios in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), with modeled structures comparing favorably to radar-documented zones of enhanced reflectivity and CLW measured by the NOAA P3 aircraft. Errors in the model representation of a low-level shear layer and the vertically propagating mountain waves are analyzed through a variety of sensitivity tests, which indicated that the mountain wave’s amplitude and placement are extremely sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization being employed. The effects of 1) using unsmoothed versus smoothed terrain and 2) the removal of upstream coastal terrain on the flow and precipitation over the Cascades are evaluated through a series of sensitivity experiments. Inclusion of unsmoothed terrain resulted in net surface precipitation increases of ∼4%–14% over the windward slopes relative to the smoothed-terrain simulation. Small-scale waves (<20-km horizontal wavelength) over the windward slopes significantly impact the horizontal pattern of precipitation and hence quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) accuracy.
The Coastal Observation and Simulation with Topography (COAST) program has examined the interaction of both steady-state and transient cool-season synoptic features, such as fronts and cyclones, with the coastal terrain of western North America. Its objectives include better understanding and forecasting of landfalling weather systems and, in particular, the modification and creation of mesoscale structures by coastal orography. In addition, COAST has placed considerable emphasis on the evaluation of mesoscale models in coastal terrain. These goals have been addressed through case studies of storm and frontal landfall along the Pacific Northwest coast using special field observations from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D research aircraft and simulations from high-resolution numerical models. The field work was conducted during December 1993 and December 1995. Active weather conditions encompassing a variety of synoptic situations were sampled. This article presents an overview of the program as well as highlights from a sample of completed and ongoing case studies.
This paper identifies mechanisms that led to the observed rapid evolution of a landfalling weak cold front along the steep mountainous northern California coast on 1 December 1995. This event was simulated down to 3-km horizontal grid spacing using the Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The MM5 simulation reproduced the basic features such as the timing, location, and orientation of the cold front and associated precipitation evolution, as well as the tendency for enhanced precipitation to extend ∼50–100 km upwind of the coastal barrier, with the heaviest amounts occurring over the windward slopes (0–20 km inland); locally, however, the model underestimated the magnitude of the prefrontal terrain-enhanced flow by as much as 30% since the simulated low-level static stability was weaker than observed. The MM5 simulations illustrate the complex thermal, wind, and precipitation structures in the coastal zone. Upstream flow blocking by the steep coastal terrain led to the development of a mesoscale pressure ridge and prefrontal terrain-enhanced winds exceeding 25 m s−1. Because of the irregular coastline and highly three-dimensional terrain, the low-level winds were not uniform along the coast. Rather, prefrontal southerly flow was significantly reduced downwind of the major capes (viz. Mendocino and Blanco), while there were localized downgradient accelerations adjacent to regions of higher topography along uninterrupted stretches of coastline. Terrain–front interactions resulted in a slowing of the front as the system made landfall, and blocking contributed to a “tipped forward” baroclinic structure below 800 mb. The MM5 was used to investigate some of the reasons for the rapid intensification of the frontal temperature gradient and banded precipitation in the coastal zone. During this event the large-scale vertical motions increased in an environment favorable for moist convection, and a simulation without coastal topography illustrated rapid development of coastal precipitation even in the absence of local terrain influences. The coastal topography helped to further enhance and collapse the thermal gradient and associated cold-frontal rainband through enhanced deformation frontogenesis associated with the prefrontal terrain-enhanced flow. Diabatic effects from precipitation are also shown to have been important in organizing the precipitation in the coastal zone and further enhancing the frontal temperature gradient.
