Abstract Water stress regulates land‐atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchanges in the tropics; however, its role remains poorly characterized due to the confounding roles of radiation, temperature and canopy dynamics. In particular, uncertainty stems from the relative roles of plant‐available water (supply) and atmospheric water vapor deficit (demand) as mechanistic drivers of photosynthetic carbon (C) uptake variability. Using satellite measurements of gravity, CO 2 and fluorescence to constrain a mechanistic carbon‐water cycle model from 2001 to 2018, we found that the interannual variability (IAV) of water stress on photosynthetic C uptake was 52% greater than the combined effects of other factors. Surprisingly, the dominance of water stress on C uptake IAV was greater in the wet tropics (94%) than in the dry tropics (26%). Plant‐available water supply and atmospheric demand both contributed to the IAV of water stress on photosynthetic C uptake across the tropics, but the IAV of demand effects was 21% greater than the IAV of supply effects (33% greater in the wet tropics and 6% greater in the dry tropics). We found that the IAV of water stress on C uptake was 24% greater than the IAV of the combination of other factors in the net land‐atmosphere C sink in the whole tropics, 26% greater in the wet tropics, and 7% greater in the dry tropics. Given the recent trends in tropical precipitation and atmospheric humidity, our findings indicate that water stress——from both supply and demand——will likely dominate the climate response of land C sink across tropical ecosystems in the coming decades.
Abstract. We compare Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) versions 3 and 4, V003 and V004, respectively, nadir-stare ozone profiles with ozonesonde profiles from the Arctic Intensive Ozonesonde Network Study (ARCIONS, http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/arcions/ during the Arctic Research on the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) field mission. The ozonesonde data are from launches timed to match Aura's overpass, where 11 coincidences spanned 44° N to 71° N from April to July 2008. Using the TES "stare" observation mode, 32 observations are taken over each coincidental ozonesonde launch. By effectively sampling the same air mass 32 times, comparisons are made between the empirically-calculated random errors to the expected random errors from measurement noise, temperature and interfering species, such as water. This study represents the first validation of high latitude (>70°) TES ozone. We find that the calculated errors are consistent with the actual errors with a similar vertical distribution that varies between 5% and 20% for V003 and V004 TES data. In general, TES ozone profiles are positively biased (by less than 15%) from the surface to the upper-troposphere (~1000 to 100 hPa) and negatively biased (by less than 20%) from the upper-troposphere to the lower-stratosphere (100 to 30 hPa) when compared to the ozonesonde data. Lastly, for V003 and V004 TES data between 44° N and 71° N there is variability in the mean biases (from −14 to +15%), mean theoretical errors (from 6 to 13%), and mean random errors (from 9 to 19%).
Abstract. We use optimal estimation (OE) to quantify methane fluxes based on total column CH4 data from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model. We then project these fluxes to emissions by sector at 1∘ resolution and then to each country using a new Bayesian algorithm that accounts for prior and posterior uncertainties in the methane emissions. These estimates are intended as a pilot dataset for the global stock take in support of the Paris Agreement. However, differences between the emissions reported here and widely used bottom-up inventories should be used as a starting point for further research because of potential systematic errors of these satellite-based emissions estimates. We find that agricultural and waste emissions are ∼ 263 ± 24 Tg CH4 yr−1, anthropogenic fossil emissions are 82 ± 12 Tg CH4 yr−1, and natural wetland/aquatic emissions are 180 ± 10 Tg CH4 yr−1. These estimates are consistent with previous inversions based on GOSAT data and the GEOS-Chem model. In addition, anthropogenic fossil estimates are consistent with those reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (80.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 for 2019). Alternative priors can be easily tested with our new Bayesian approach (also known as prior swapping) to determine their impact on posterior emissions estimates. We use this approach by swapping to priors that include much larger aquatic emissions and fossil emissions (based on isotopic evidence) and find little impact on our posterior fluxes. This indicates that these alternative inventories are inconsistent with our remote sensing estimates and also that the posteriors reported here are due to the observing and flux inversion system and not uncertainties in the prior inventories. We find that total emissions for approximately 57 countries can be resolved with this observing system based on the degrees-of-freedom for signal metric (DOFS > 1.0) that can be calculated with our Bayesian flux estimation approach. Below a DOFS of 0.5, estimates for country total emissions are more weighted to our choice of prior inventories. The top five emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia, USA) emit about half of the global anthropogenic budget, similar to our choice of prior emissions but with the posterior emissions shifted towards the agricultural sector and less towards fossil emissions, consistent with our global posterior results. Our results suggest remote-sensing-based estimates of methane emissions can be substantially different (although within uncertainty) than bottom-up inventories, isotopic evidence, or estimates based on sparse in situ data, indicating a need for further studies reconciling these different approaches for quantifying the methane budget. Higher-resolution fluxes calculated from upcoming satellite or aircraft data such as the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and those in formulation such as the Copernicus CO2M, MethaneSat, or Carbon Mapper can be incorporated into our Bayesian estimation framework for the purpose of reducing uncertainty and improving the spatial resolution and sectoral attribution of subsequent methane emissions estimates.
Abstract. The Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument is the only satellite-borne sensor in operation that uses both thermal (TIR) and near-infrared (NIR) channels to estimate CO profiles. With more than 15 years (2000 to present) of validated multispectral observations, MOPITT provides the unique capability to separate CO in the lowermost troposphere (LMT, surface to 3 km (∼ 700 hPa)) from the free-tropospheric abundance. To extend this record, a new, hyper-spectral approach is presented here that will provide CO data products exceeding the capabilities of MOPITT by combining the short-wavelength infrared (SWIR, equivalent to the MOPITT NIR) channels from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) to be launched aboard the European Sentinel 5 Precursor (S5p) satellite in 2016 and the TIR channels from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite. We apply the MUlti-SpEctra, MUlti-SpEcies, Multi-SEnsors (MUSES) retrieval algorithm to quantify the potential of this joint CO product. CO profiles are retrieved from a single-footprint, full-spectral-resolution CrIS transect over Africa on 27–28 August 2013 coincident with significant biomass burning. Comparisons of collocated CrIS and MOPITT CO observations for the LMT show a mean difference of 2.8 ± 24.9 ppb, which is well within the estimated measurement uncertainty of both sensors. The estimated degrees of freedom (DOF) for CO signals from synergistic CrIS–TROPOMI retrievals are approximately 0.9 in the LMT and 1.3 above the LMT, which indicates that the LMT CO can be distinguished from the free troposphere, similar to MOPITT multispectral observations (0.8 in the LMT, and 1.1 above the LMT). In addition to increased sensitivity, the combined retrievals reduce measurement uncertainty, with ∼ 15 % error reduction in the LMT. With a daily global coverage and a combined spatial footprint of 14 km, the joint CrIS–TROPOMI measurements have the potential to extend and improve upon the MOPITT multispectral CO data records for the coming decade.
We have conducted an observing system simulation experiment for the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) satellite instrument to determine the potential of nadir retrievals of carbon monoxide (CO) from this instrument to constrain estimates of continental sources of CO. We use the GEOS‐CHEM global chemical transport model to produce a pseudoatmosphere in which the relationship between sources and concentrations of CO is known. Linear profile retrievals of CO are calculated by sampling this pseudoatmosphere along the orbit of TES. These retrievals are used as pseudo‐observations with a maximum a posteriori inverse algorithm to estimate the CO sources from the different continents. This algorithm accounts for the finite vertical resolution of the retrieval, instrument errors, and representation and transport errors in the GEOS‐CHEM simulation of CO. The structure of the transport error is estimated using the statistics of the difference between paired GEOS‐CHEM forecasts of CO, and this structure is then scaled to match the model error in the GEOS‐CHEM simulation of aircraft observations of Asian outflow over the NW Pacific. We show that with proper characterization of observation errors just 2 weeks of observations from TES have the potential to constrain estimates of continental sources of CO to within 10%.
Abstract. New generations of space-borne spectrometers for the retrieval of atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases require unprecedented accuracies as atmospheric variability of long-lived gases is very low. These instruments, such as GOSAT and OCO-2, typically use a high spectral resolution oxygen channel (O2 A-band) in addition to CO2 and CH4 channels to discriminate changes in the photon path-length distribution from actual trace gas amount changes. Inaccurate knowledge of the photon path-length distribution, determined by scatterers in the atmosphere, is the prime source of systematic biases in the retrieval. In this paper, we investigate the combined aerosol and greenhouse gas retrieval using multiple satellite viewing angles simultaneously. We find that this method, hitherto only applied in multi-angle imagery such as from POLDER or MISR, greatly enhances the ability to retrieve aerosol properties by 2–3 degrees of freedom. We find that the improved capability to retrieve aerosol parameters significantly reduces interference errors introduced into retrieved CO2 and CH4 total column averages. Instead of focussing solely on improvements in spectral and spatial resolution, signal-to-noise ratios or sampling frequency, multiple angles reduce uncertainty in space based greenhouse gas retrievals more effectively and provide a new potential for dedicated aerosols retrievals.
Abstract. We present a description of the algorithm used to retrieve peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) concentrations from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). We describe the spectral microwindows, error analysis and the utilization of a priori and initial guess information provided by the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. The TES PAN retrievals contain up to one degree of freedom for signal. Estimated single-measurement uncertainties are 30 to 50%. The detection limit for a single TES measurement is dependent on the atmospheric and surface conditions as well as on the instrument noise. For observations where the cloud optical depth is less than 0.5, we find that the TES detection limit for PAN is in the region of 200 to 300 pptv. We show that PAN retrievals over the Northern Hemisphere Pacific in springtime show spatial features that are qualitatively consistent with the expected distribution of PAN in outflow of Asian pollution.
Abstract Precipitation isotopologues recorded in natural archives from the southern Tibetan Plateau may document past variations of Indian monsoon intensity. The exact processes controlling the variability of precipitation isotopologue composition must therefore first be deciphered and understood. This study investigates how atmospheric convection affects the summer variability of δ 18 O in precipitation ( δ 18 O p ) and δ D in water vapor ( δ D v ) at the daily scale. This is achieved using isotopic data from precipitation samples at Lhasa, isotopic measurements of water vapor retrieved from satellites (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), GOSAT) and atmospheric general circulation modeling. We reveal that both δ 18 O p and δ D v at Lhasa are well correlated with upstream convective activity, especially above northern India. First, during days of strong convection, northern India surface air contains large amounts of vapor with relatively low δ D v . Second, when this low‐ δ D v moisture is uplifted toward southern Tibet, this initial depletion in HDO is further amplified by Rayleigh distillation as the vapor moves over the Himalayan. The intraseasonal variability of the isotopologue composition of vapor and precipitation over the southern Tibetan Plateau results from these processes occurring during air mass transportation.
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