Zhe Han

Institute of Atmospheric Physics

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Shuanglin Li

Chinese Academy of Sciences

Chunxiang Li

Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology

Guokun Dai

Fudan University

Mu Mu

Fudan University

Xueying Ma

Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute

Mengbin Zhu

Beijing Meteorological Bureau

Zhina Jiang

Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Mu Mu

Fudan University

Feifei Luo

Chengdu University of Information Technology

Yongqi Gao

University of Birmingham

Cooperative Institutions

Chinese Academy of Sciences

Institute of Atmospheric Physics

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fudan University

Chengdu University of Information Technology

Institute of Oceanology

Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research Institute

Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics

Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research

University of Bergen

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A comparison of the effects of interannual Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO on winter haze days: Observational analyses and AGCM simulations

Journal of Meteorological Research (2017)

Shuanglin Li Zhe Han Huopo Chen

This study compares the impacts of interannual Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO events on winter haze days in mainland China through observational analyses and AGCM sensitivity experiments. The results suggest that (1) Arctic sea ice loss favors an increase in haze days in central–eastern China; (2) the impact of ENSO is overall contained within southern China, with increased (reduced) haze days during La Niña (El Niño) winters; and (3) the impacts from sea ice loss and ENSO are linearly additive. Mechanistically, Arctic sea ice loss causes quasi-barotropic positive height anomalies over the region from northern Europe to the Ural Mountains (Urals in brief) and weak and negative height anomalies over the region from central Asia to northeastern Asia. The former favors intensified frequency of the blocking over the regions from northern Europe to the Urals, whereas the latter favors an even air pressure distribution over Siberia, Mongolia, and East Asia. This large-scale circulation pattern favors more frequent occurrence of calm and steady weather in northern China and, as a consequence, increased occurrence of haze days. In comparison, La Niña (El Niño) exerts its influence along a tropical pathway by inducing a cyclonic (anticyclonic) lower-tropospheric atmospheric circulation response over the subtropical northwestern Pacific. The northeasterly (southwesterly) anomaly at the northwestern rear of the cyclone (anticyclone) causes reduced (intensified) rainfall over southeastern China, which favors increased (reduced) occurrence of haze days through the rain-washing effect.

Anticyclone

Haze

Atmospheric Circulation

Subtropical ridge

10.1007/s13351-017-7017-2

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Citations (46)

Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21: Comparisons, Causes, and Future Implications

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2021)

Xiangdong Zhang Yunfei Fu Zhe Han James E. Overland Annette Rinke

Arctic oscillation

Atmospheric Circulation

Middle latitudes

10.1007/s00376-021-1229-1

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Citations (65)

The Nature and Predictability of the East Asian Extreme Cold Events of 2020/21

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2021)

Guokun Dai Chunxiang Li Zhe Han Dehai Luo Yao Yao

Predictability

Extreme Cold

Siberian High

10.1007/s00376-021-1057-3

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Citations (55)

Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (2020)

Guokun Dai Mu Mu Chunxiang Li Zhe Han Lei Wang

Abstract Utilizing the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) operational forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, the forecast skill for East Asian extreme cold events during 2015–2019 is evaluated. The results from the ensemble mean surface air temperature anomaly, the extreme forecast index, and the continuous ranked probability score skill reveal that extreme cold events can be captured by numerical models with a lead time of 7 days. It is also found that long‐persistent extreme cold events tend to have a longer skillful forecast lead time, which can exceed 10 days. The long skillful forecast lead time indicates that these events have a high intrinsic predictability, and the remote sea surface temperature anomaly, tropical intra‐seasonal oscillation and stratospheric polar vortex may be possible reasons for this predictability. The results suggest that it may be possible to make S2S and beyond skillful forecasts.

Predictability

Anomaly (physics)

Lead time

Lead (geology)

Quantitative precipitation forecast

Extreme Cold

10.1029/2020jd033860

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Citations (13)

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended‐Range Prediction of Strong and Long‐Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (2022)

Xueying Ma Mu Mu Guokun Dai Zhe Han Chunxiang Li

Abstract It is traditionally considered that the predictability of atmosphere reaches approximately 2 weeks due to its chaotic features. Considering boundary conditions, the lead prediction time can exceed 2 weeks in certain cases. We find that the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is crucial for extended‐range prediction of strong and long‐lasting Ural blocking (UB) formation. By applying the rotated empirical orthogonal function‐based particle swarm optimization algorithm, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation is calculated with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, to identify the optimally growing boundary errors in extended‐range prediction of strong and long‐lasting UB formation. It is found that SIC perturbations in the Greenland Sea (GS), Barents Sea (BS), and Okhotsk Sea (OKS) are important for strong and long‐lasting UB formation prediction in four pentads. Further analysis reveals that the SIC perturbations in these areas first influence the local temperature field through the diabatic heating process and further affect the temperature field in the Ural sector mainly by advection and convection processes. Moreover, the zonal winds in the Ural sector are adjusted by the thermal wind balance, thus affecting UB formation. The local characteristics of the SIC perturbations indicate that the GS, BS, and OKS may be sensitive areas in regard to extended‐range prediction of strong and long‐lasting UB formation, which can provide scientific support for the SIC target observations in the future.

Diabatic

Predictability

Empirical orthogonal functions

10.1029/2021jd036282

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Citations (25)

Evaluation of the HadISST1 and NSIDC 1850 onward sea ice datasets with a focus on the Barents-Kara seas

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (2018)

Ruibo Wang Shuanglin Li Zhe Han

In recent years, long-term continuous sea-ice datasets have been developed, and they cover the periods before and after the satellite era. How these datasets differ from one another before the satellite era, and whether one is more reliable than the other, is important but unclear because the sea-ice record before 1979 is sparse and not continuous. In this letter, two sets of sea-ice datasets are evaluated: one is the HadISST1 dataset from the Hadley Centre, and the other is the SIBT1850 (Gridded Monthly Sea Ice Extent and Concentration, from 1850 Onward) dataset from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). In view of its substantial importance for climate, the winter sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas (BKS) is of particular focus. A reconstructed BKS sea-ice extent (SIE) is developed using linear regression from the mean of observed surface air temperature at two adjacent islands, Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land (proxy). One validation illustrates that the proxy is substantially coherent with the BKS sea-ice anomaly in the observations and the CMIP5 (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) historical experiments. This result indicates that the proxy is reasonable. Therefore, the establishment of the reconstructed BKS SIE is also reasonable. The evaluation results based on the proxy suggest that the sea-ice concentration prior to the satellite era in the NSIDC dataset is more realistic and reliable than that in the Hadley Centre dataset, and thus is more appropriate for use.

Proxy (statistics)

Sea ice concentration

10.1080/16742834.2018.1504599

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Citations (2)

Simulation by CMIP5 models of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its climate impacts

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2016)

Zhe Han Feifei Luo Shuanglin Li Yongqi Gao Tore Furevik

Teleconnection

Forcing (mathematics)

Intertropical Convergence Zone

10.1007/s00376-016-5270-4

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Citations (42)

The role of warm North Atlantic SST in the formation of positive height anomalies over the Ural Mountains during January 2008

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2011)

Zhe Han Shuanglin Li Mu Mu

Anomaly (physics)

Extratropical cyclone

Atmospheric Circulation

10.1007/s00376-010-0069-1

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Citations (34)

Precursor role of winter sea-ice in the Labrador Sea for following-spring precipitation over southeastern North America and western Europe

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2017)

Zhe Han Shuanglin Li

Atmospheric Circulation

Forcing (mathematics)

10.1007/s00376-017-6291-3

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Citations (5)

The observational influence of the North Atlantic SST tripole on the early spring atmospheric circulation

Geophysical Research Letters (2016)

Zhe Han Feifei Luo Jianghua Wan

Abstract This study investigated the forcing of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) tripole on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)‐like circulation in early spring (February–April) in observations. Corresponding to an SST tripole forcing in early spring, the atmospheric circulation is very weak and insignificant. However, further analyses indicate that the observational effect of the SST anomalies on the NAO‐like circulation is disturbed by the concomitant sea ice anomalies. With the linear effects of sea ice anomalies removed, there is an equivalent barotropic NAO‐like circulation in early spring related to a North Atlantic SST tripole.

Forcing (mathematics)

Barotropic fluid

Atmospheric Circulation

Circulation (fluid dynamics)

10.1002/2016gl068099

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Citations (32)