Abstract The satellite-based Dvorak technique (DVKT) is the most widely available and readily used tool for operationally estimating the maximum wind speeds associated with tropical cyclones. The DVKT itself produces internally consistent results, is reproducible, and has shown practical accuracy given the high cost of in situ or airborne observations. For these reasons, the DVKT has been used in a reasonably uniform manner globally for approximately 20 years. Despite the nearly universal use of this technique, relatively few systematic verifications of the DVKT have been conducted. This study, which makes use of 20 yr of subjectively determined DVKT-based intensity estimates and best-track intensity estimates influenced by aircraft observations (i.e., ±2 h) in the Atlantic basin, seeks to 1) identify the factors (intensity, intensity trends, radius of outer closed isobar, storm speed, and latitude) that bias the DVKT-based intensity estimates, 2) quantify those biases as well as the general error characteristics associated with this technique, and 3) provide guidance for better use of the operational DVKT intensity estimates. Results show that the biases associated with the DVKT-based intensity estimates are a function of intensity (i.e., maximum sustained wind speed), 12-h intensity trend, latitude, and translation speed and size measured by the radius of the outer closed isobar. Root-mean-square errors (RMSE), however, are shown to be primarily a function of intensity, with the best signal-to-noise (intensity to RMSE) ratio occurring in an intensity range of 90–125 kt (46–64 m s−1). The knowledge of how these factors affect intensity estimates, which is quantified in this paper, can be used to better calibrate Dvorak intensity estimates for tropical cyclone forecast operations, postseason best-track analysis, and climatological reanalysis efforts. As a demonstration of this capability, the bias corrections developed in the Atlantic basin are also tested using a limited east Pacific basin sample, showing that biases and errors can be significantly reduced.
OCTOBER 2003 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | S harp et al. (2002, hereafter SBO) reported on the use of surface winds derived from the SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikSCAT satellite for the “early detection” of tropical cyclones (TCs). They applied a vorticity-based detection tool to QuikSCAT wind data from the 1999–2000 hurricane seasons over the tropical Atlantic basin. They indicated that their technique could provide advance notice of the formation of TCs prior to their official designation. However, SBO’s study provides a misleading impression of the current ability of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) to identify and track pre-TC disturbances. Indeed, current operational detection techniques, that do not rely on QuikSCAT, usually provide considerably longer lead times than shown in SBO. The current observing system, used routinely by the TPC to identify and track tropical weather systems, includes conventional surface and upper-air observations, reconnaissance aircraft reports, and satellite data, including QuikSCAT. Among these, geostationary satellites are the most critical observing tool over the tropical oceans, because of their nearly continuous spatial and temporal coverage over the Tropics and the relative paucity of data from other sources. Using a technique developed by Dvorak (1984), visible and infrared images from these satellites are routinely analyzed by meteorologists at the TPC’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and at other operational centers. This technique classifies the stage of TC development, if any, of a tropical weather system based on the evolution of the satellite-observed cloud pattern. The two essential requirements for the assignment of a Dvorak “T-number,” that is, a “classification,” are the following: a center of cyclonic circulation indicated by the cloud pattern (usually confirmed by animation of the images); and persistent deep convection in a curved band (or bands). It is quite typical, in the pre-TC stages of a system, for a circulation, or lowerto midtropospheric cyclonic turning, to be evident in the imagery while the associated deep convection is sporadic or not organized in curved bands. In such cases, the system is considered “too weak to classify” (TWTC), and a center position is given although no T number is assigned. Thus a weather system can be tracked by the TPC regardless of whether it is a TC or even classifiable by the Dvorak technique. Tables 1 and 2 show a comparison of the lead (early detection) times, prior to TC formation, of the TAFB’s first operational Dvorak classification or TWTC designation versus SBO’s QuikSCAT detection technique during the 1999–2000 Atlantic hurricane seasons, Comments on “Early Detection of Tropical Cyclones Using SeaWindsDerived Vorticity”
Abstract The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Probability Program, which estimated the probability of a tropical cyclone passing within a specific distance of a selected set of coastal stations, was replaced by the more general Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities in 2006. A Monte Carlo (MC) method is used to estimate the probabilities of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) winds at multiple time periods through 120 h. Versions of the MC model are available for the Atlantic, the combined eastern and central North Pacific, and the western North Pacific. This paper presents a verification of the operational runs of the MC model for the period 2008–11 and describes model improvements since 2007. The most significant change occurred in 2010 with the inclusion of a method to take into account the uncertainty of the track forecasts on a case-by-case basis, which is estimated from the spread of a dynamical model ensemble and other parameters. The previous version represented the track uncertainty from the error distributions from the previous 5 yr of forecasts from the operational centers, with no case-to-case variability. Results show the MC model provides robust estimates of the wind speed probabilities using a number of standard verification metrics, and that the inclusion of the case-by-case measure of track uncertainty improved the probability estimates. Beginning in 2008, an older operational wind speed probability table product was modified to include information from the MC model. This development and a verification of the new version of the table are described.
Abstract The hurricane season of 2006 in the eastern North Pacific basin is summarized, and the individual tropical cyclones are described. Also, the official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are verified and evaluated. The 2006 eastern North Pacific season was an active one, in which 18 tropical storms formed. Of these, 10 became hurricanes and 5 became major hurricanes. A total of 2 hurricanes and 1 tropical depression made landfall in Mexico, causing 13 direct deaths in that country along with significant property damage. On average, the official track forecasts in the eastern Pacific for 2006 were quite skillful. No appreciable improvement in mean intensity forecasts was noted, however.
Abstract The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year’s tropical cyclones are described. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2006 is also presented. Ten cyclones attained tropical storm intensity in 2006. Of these, five became hurricanes and two became “major” hurricanes. Overall activity was near the long-term mean, but below the active levels of recent seasons. For the first time since 2001, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States. Elsewhere in the basin, hurricane-force winds were experienced in Bermuda (from Florence) and in the Azores (from Gordon). Official track forecast errors were smaller in 2006 than during the previous 5-yr period (by roughly 15%–20% out to 72 h), establishing new all-time lows at forecast projections through 72 h. Since 1990, 24–72-h official track forecast errors have been reduced by roughly 50%.
Abstract While there are a variety of modes for tropical cyclone (TC) development, there have been relatively few efforts to systematically catalog both nondeveloping and developing cases. This paper introduces an operationally derived climatology of tropical disturbances that were analyzed using the Dvorak technique at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center from 2001 to 2011. Using these Dvorak intensity estimates, the likelihood of genesis is calculated as a historical baseline for TC prediction. Despite the limited period of record, the climatology of Dvorak analyses of incipient tropical systems has a spatial distribution that compares well with previous climatologies. The North Atlantic basin shows substantial regional variability in Dvorak classification frequency. In contrast, tropical disturbances in the combined eastern and central North Pacific basins (which split at 125°W into an eastern region and a central region) have a single broad frequency maximum and limited meridional extent. When applied to forecasting, several important features are discovered. Dvorak fixes are sometimes unavailable for disturbances that develop into TCs, especially at longer lead times. However, when probabilities of genesis are calculated by a Dvorak current intensity (CI) number, the likelihood stratifies well by basin and intensity. Tropical disturbances that are analyzed as being stronger (a higher Dvorak CI number) achieve genesis more often. Further, all else being equal, genesis rates are highest in the eastern Pacific, followed by the Atlantic. Out-of-sample verification of predictive skill shows comparable results to that of the NHC, with potential to inform forecasts and provide the first disturbance-centric baseline for tropical cyclogenesis potential.
