Abstract. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) delivers a range of full, free and open products in relation to atmospheric composition at global and regional scales. The CAMS Regional Service produces daily forecasts, analyses, and reanalyses of air quality in Europe. This Service relies on a distributed modelling production by eleven teams in ten European countries: CHIMERE (France), DEHM (Denmark), EMEP (Norway), EURAD-IM (Germany), GEM-AQ (Poland), LOTOS-EUROS (The Netherlands), MATCH (Sweden), MINNI (Italy), MOCAGE (France), MONARCH (Spain), SILAM (Finland). The project management and coordination of the service is devoted to a Centralised Regional Production Unit. Each model produces every day 24 h analyses for the previous day and 97 h forecasts for 19 chemical species over a spatial domain at 0.1x01. degree resolution (approximately 10 km x 10 km) with 420 points in latitude and 700 in longitude and 10 vertical levels. Six pollen species are also delivered for the surface forecasts. The eleven individual models are then combined into an ENSEMBLE median. In total, more than 82 billion data points are made available for public use on a daily basis. The design of the system follows clear technical requirements in terms of consistency in the model setup and forcing fields (meteorology, surface anthropogenic emission fluxes, and chemical boundary conditions). But it also benefits from a diversity of in the description of atmospheric processes through the design of the eleven European Chemistry Transport Models (CTM) involved. The present article aims to provide a comprehensive technical documentation, both for the setup as well as for the diversity of CTM involved in the Service. We also include an overview of the main output products, their public dissemination and the related evaluation and quality control strategy.
This paper describes the inversion procedure being used operationally at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for estimating ash emission rates from retrieved satellite ash column amounts and a priori knowledge. The overall procedure consists of five stages: (1) generate a priori emission estimates; (2) run forward simulations with unit emissions; (3) collocate/match observations with emission simulations; (4) build system of linear equations; and (5) solve overdetermined system. We go through the mathematical foundations for the inversion procedure, performance for synthetic cases, and performance for real-world cases. The novelties of this paper includes pruning of the linear system of equations used in the inversion and inclusion of observations of ash cloud top altitude. The source code used in this work is freely available under an open source license, and is possible to use for other similar applications.
Abstract. This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014). This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs and PAN + PAN precursors) over 8 vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performances of the system are assessed daily, weekly and 3 monthly (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the median ensemble to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The time period of this case study is also used to illustrate that the median ensemble generally outperforms each of the individual models and that it is still robust even if two of the seven models are missing. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10 and show an overall improvement over time. The change of the skills of the ensemble over the past two summers for ozone and the past two winters for PM10 are discussed in the paper. While the evolution of the ozone scores is not significant, there are improvements of PM10 over the past two winters that can be at least partly attributed to new developments on aerosols in the seven individual models. Nevertheless, the year to year changes in the models and ensemble skills are also linked to the variability of the meteorological conditions and of the set of observations used to calculate the statistical indicators. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.
Abstract. A multi-model study of the long-range transport of ozone and its precursors from major anthropogenic source regions was coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). Vertical profiles of ozone at 12-h intervals from 2001 are available from twelve of the models contributing to this study and are compared here with observed profiles from ozonesondes. The contributions from each major source region are analysed for selected sondes, and this analysis is supplemented by retroplume calculations using the FLEXPART Lagrangian particle dispersion model to provide insight into the origin of ozone transport events and the cause of differences between the models and observations. In the boundary layer ozone levels are in general strongly affected by regional sources and sinks. With a considerably longer lifetime in the free troposphere, ozone here is to a much larger extent affected by processes on a larger scale such as intercontinental transport and exchange with the stratosphere. Such individual events are difficult to trace over several days or weeks of transport. This may explain why statistical relationships between models and ozonesonde measurements are far less satisfactory than shown in previous studies for surface measurements at all seasons. The lowest bias between model-calculated ozone profiles and the ozonesonde measurements is seen in the winter and autumn months. Following the increase in photochemical activity in the spring and summer months, the spread in model results increases, and the agreement between ozonesonde measurements and the individual models deteriorates further. At selected sites calculated contributions to ozone levels in the free troposphere from intercontinental transport are shown. Intercontinental transport is identified based on differences in model calculations with unperturbed emissions and emissions reduced by 20% by region. Intercontinental transport of ozone is finally determined based on differences in model ensemble calculations. With emissions perturbed by 20% per region, calculated intercontinental contributions to ozone in the free troposphere range from less than 1 ppb to 3 ppb, with small contributions in winter. The results are corroborated by the retroplume calculations. At several locations the seasonal contributions to ozone in the free troposphere from intercontinental transport differ from what was shown earlier at the surface using the same dataset. The large spread in model results points to a need of further evaluation of the chemical and physical processes in order to improve the credibility of global model results.
Abstract. The Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W) of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) has been performing model calculations in support of the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) for more than 30 yr. The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model is still one of the key tools within European air pollution policy assessments. Traditionally, the EMEP model has covered all of Europe with a resolution of about 50 × 50 km2, and extending vertically from ground level to the tropopause (100 hPa). The model has undergone substantial development in recent years, and is now applied on scales ranging from local (ca. 5 km grid size) to global (with 1 degree resolution). The model is used to simulate photo-oxidants and both inorganic and organic aerosols. In 2008 the EMEP model was released for the first time as public domain code, along with all required input data for model runs for one year. Since then, many changes have been made to the model physics, and input data. The second release of the EMEP MSC-W model became available in mid 2011, and a new release is targeted for early 2012. This publication is intended to document this third release of the EMEP MSC-W model. The model formulations are given, along with details of input data-sets which are used, and brief background on some of the choices made in the formulation are presented. The model code itself is available at www.emep.int, along with the data required to run for a full year over Europe.
Abstract. A description of the new air quality downscaling model – the urban EMEP (uEMEP) and its combination with the EMEP MSC-W model (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesising Centre West) – is presented. uEMEP is based on well-known Gaussian modelling principles. The uniqueness of the system is in its combination with the EMEP MSC-W model and the “local fraction” calculation contained within it. This allows the uEMEP model to be imbedded in the EMEP MSC-W model and downscaling can be carried out anywhere within the EMEP model domain, without any double counting of emissions, if appropriate proxy data are available that describe the spatial distribution of the emissions. This makes the model suitable for high-resolution calculations, down to 50 m, over entire countries. An example application, the Norwegian air quality forecasting and assessment system, is described where the entire country is modelled at a resolution of between 250 and 50 m. The model is validated against all available monitoring data, including traffic sites, in Norway. The results of the validation show good results for NO2, which has the best known emissions, and moderately good for PM10 and PM2.5. In Norway, the largest contributor to PM, even in cities, is long-range transport followed by road dust and domestic heating emissions. These contributors to PM are more difficult to quantify than NOx exhaust emission from traffic, which is the major contributor to NO2 concentrations. In addition to the validation results, a number of verification and sensitivity results are summarised. One verification showed that single annual mean calculations with a rotationally symmetric dispersion kernel give very similar results to the average of an entire year of hourly calculations, reducing the runtime for annual means by 4 orders of magnitude. The uEMEP model, in combination with EMEP MSC-W model, provides a new tool for assessing local-scale concentrations and exposure over large regions in a consistent and homogenous way and is suitable for large-scale policy applications.
Abstract. Accurate modeling of ash clouds from volcanic eruptions requires knowledge about the eruption source parameters including eruption onset, duration, mass eruption rates, particle size distribution, and vertical-emission profiles. However, most of these parameters are unknown and must be estimated somehow. Some are estimated based on observed correlations and known volcano parameters. However, a more accurate estimate is often needed to bring the model into closer agreement with observations. This paper describes the inversion procedure implemented at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for estimating ash emission rates from retrieved satellite ash column amounts and a priori knowledge. The overall procedure consists of five stages: (1) generate a priori emission estimates, (2) run forward simulations with a set of unit emission profiles, (3) collocate/match observations with emission simulations, (4) build system of linear equations, and (5) solve overdetermined systems. We go through the mathematical foundations for the inversion procedure, performance for synthetic cases, and performance for real-world cases. The novelties of this paper include a memory efficient formulation of the inversion problem, a detailed description and illustrations of the mathematical formulations, evaluation of the inversion method using synthetic known-truth data as well as real data, and inclusion of observations of ash cloud-top height. The source code used in this work is freely available under an open-source license and is able to be used for other similar applications.
Abstract. A large fraction of the urban population in Europe is exposed to particulate matter levels above the WHO guideline value. To make more effective mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the influence on particulate matter (PM) from pollutants emitted in different European nations. In this study, we evaluate a country source contribution forecasting system aimed at assessing the domestic and transboundary contributions to PM in major European cities for an episode in December 2016. The system is composed of two models (EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 and LOTOS-EUROS v2.0), which allows the consideration of differences in the source attribution. We also compared the PM10 concentrations, and both models present satisfactory agreement in the 4 d forecasts of the surface concentrations, since the hourly concentrations can be highly correlated with in situ observations. The correlation coefficients reach values of up to 0.58 for LOTOS-EUROS and 0.50 for EMEP for the urban stations; the values are 0.58 for LOTOS-EUROS and 0.72 for EMEP for the rural stations. However, the models underpredict the highest hourly concentrations measured by the urban stations (mean underestimation of 36 %), which is to be expected given the relatively coarse model resolution used (0.25∘ longitude × 0.125∘ latitude). For the source attribution calculations, LOTOS-EUROS uses a labelling technique, while the EMEP/MSC-W model uses a scenario having reduced anthropogenic emissions, and then it is compared to a reference run where no changes are applied. Different percentages (5 %, 15 %, and 50 %) for the reduced emissions in the EMEP/MSC-W model were used to test the robustness of the methodology. The impact of the different ways to define the urban area for the studied cities was also investigated (i.e. one model grid cell, nine grid cells, and grid cells covering the definition given by the Global Administrative Areas – GADM). We found that the combination of a 15 % emission reduction and a larger domain (nine grid cells or GADM) helps to preserve the linearity between emission and concentrations changes. The nonlinearity, related to the emission reduction scenario used, is suggested by the nature of the mismatch between the total concentration and the sum of the concentrations from different calculated sources. Even limited, this nonlinearity is observed in the NO3-, NH4+, and H2O concentrations, which is related to gas–aerosol partitioning of the species. The use of a 15 % emission reduction and of a larger city domain also causes better agreement on the determination of the main country contributors between both country source calculations. Over the 34 European cities investigated, PM10 was dominated by domestic emissions for the studied episode (1–9 December 2016). The two models generally agree on the dominant external country contributor (68 % on an hourly basis) to PM10 concentrations. Overall, 75 % of the hourly predicted PM10 concentrations of both models have the same top five main country contributors. Better agreement on the dominant country contributor for primary (emitted) species (70 % is found for primary organic matter (POM) and 80 % for elemental carbon – EC) than for the inorganic secondary component of the aerosol (50 %), which is predictable due to the conceptual differences in the source attribution used by both models. The country contribution calculated by the scenario approach depends on the chemical regime, which largely impacts the secondary components, unlike the calculation using the labelling approach.
Abstract. The Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W) of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) has been performing model calculations in support of the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) for more than 30 years. The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model is still one of the key tools within European air pollution policy assessments. Traditionally, the model has covered all of Europe with a resolution of about 50 km × 50 km, and extending vertically from ground level to the tropopause (100 hPa). The model has changed extensively over the last ten years, however, with flexible processing of chemical schemes, meteorological inputs, and with nesting capability: the code is now applied on scales ranging from local (ca. 5 km grid size) to global (with 1 degree resolution). The model is used to simulate photo-oxidants and both inorganic and organic aerosols. In 2008 the EMEP model was released for the first time as public domain code, along with all required input data for model runs for one year. The second release of the EMEP MSC-W model became available in mid 2011, and a new release is targeted for summer 2012. This publication is intended to document this third release of the EMEP MSC-W model. The model formulations are given, along with details of input data-sets which are used, and a brief background on some of the choices made in the formulation is presented. The model code itself is available at www.emep.int, along with the data required to run for a full year over Europe.
Abstract. This paper presents a new version of the EMEP MSC-W model called eEMEP developed for transportation and dispersion of volcanic emissions, both gases and ash. EMEP MSC-W is usually applied to study problems with air pollution and aerosol transport and requires some adaptation to treat volcanic eruption sources and effluent dispersion. The operational setup of model simulations in case of a volcanic eruption is described. Important choices have to be made to achieve CPU efficiency so that emergency situations can be tackled in time, answering relevant questions of ash advisory authorities. An efficient model needs to balance complexity of the model and resolution. We have investigated here a meteorological uncertainty component of the volcanic cloud forecast by using a consistent ensemble meteorological dataset (GLAMEPS forecast) in three resolutions for the case of SO2 effusion from the 2014 Barðarbunga eruption. The low resolution (40 × 40 km) ensemble members show larger agreement in plume position and intensity, suggesting that the ensemble here don't give much added value. For comparing the dispersion in different resolutions we compute the area where the column load of the volcanic tracer, here SO2, is above a certain threshold, varied for testing purposed between 0.25–50 DU Dobson units. The increased numerical diffusion causes a larger area (+34 %) to be covered by the volcanic tracer in the low resolution simulations than in the high resolution ones. The higher resolution (10 × 10 km) ensemble members show higher concentrations farther away from the volcanic eruption site in more narrow plumes. Plume positions are more varied between the high resolution members, while the plume form resemble the observed plumes more than the low resolution ones. For a volcanic emergency case this means: To obtain quickly results of the transport of volcanic emissions an individual simulation with our low resolution is sufficient, however, to forecast peak concentrations with more certainty for forecast or scientific analysis purposes a finer resolution is needed. The model is further developed to simulate ash from highly explosive eruptions. A possibility to increase the number of vertical layers, achieving finer vertical resolution, as well as a higher model top is included in the eEMEP version. Ash size distributions may be altered for different volcanic eruptions and assumptions. Since ash particles are larger than typical particles in the standard model, gravitational settling across all vertical layers is included. We attempt finally a specific validation of the simulation of ash and its vertical distribution. Model simulations with and without gravitational settling for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption are compared to lidar observations over Central Europe. The results show that with gravitation the centre of ash mass can be 1km lower over central Europe than without gravitation. However the height variations in the ash layer caused by real weather situations are not captured perfectly well by either of the two simulations, playing down the role of gravitation parameterization imperfections. Both model simulations have on average ash centre of mass below the observed values. Correlation between the observed and corresponding model centre of mass are higher for the model simulation with gravitational settling for four of six stations studied here. The inclusion of gravitational settling is suggested to be required for a volcanic ash model.
