Abstract. The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr−1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr−1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr−1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr−1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr−1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42− from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10 and human health effects globally as well as eutrophication and climate effects. The volatility of NH4NO3 and rapid dry deposition of the vapour phase dissociation products, HNO3 and NH3, is estimated to be reducing the transport distances, deposition footprints and inter-country exchange of Nr in these regions. There have been important policy initiatives on components of the global N cycle. These have been regional or country-based and have delivered substantial reductions of inputs of Nr to sensitive soils, waters and the atmosphere. To date there have been no attempts to develop a global strategy to regulate human inputs to the nitrogen cycle. However, considering the magnitude of global Nr use, potential future increases, and the very large leakage of Nr in many forms to soils, waters and the atmosphere, international action is required. Current legislation will not deliver the scale of reductions globally for recovery from the effects of Nr deposition on sensitive ecosystems, or a decline in N2O emissions to the global atmosphere. Such changes would require substantial improvements in nitrogen use efficiency across the global economy combined with optimization of transport and food consumption patterns. This would allow reductions in Nr use, inputs to the atmosphere and deposition to sensitive ecosystems. Such changes would offer substantial economic and environmental co-benefits which could help motivate the necessary actions.
The potential to capture additional air pollutants by introducing more vegetation or changing existing short vegetation to woodland on first sight provides an attractive route for lowering urban pollution. Here, an atmospheric chemistry and transport model was run with a range of landcover scenarios to quantify pollutant removal by the existing total UK vegetation as well as the UK urban vegetation and to quantify the effect of large-scale urban tree planting on urban air pollution. UK vegetation as a whole reduces area (population)-weighted concentrations significantly, by 10% (9%) for PM 2.5 , 30% (22%) for SO 2 , 24% (19%) for NH 3 and 15% (13%) for O 3 , compared with a desert scenario. By contrast, urban vegetation reduces average urban PM 2.5 by only approximately 1%. Even large-scale conversion of half of existing open urban greenspace to forest would lower urban PM 2.5 by only another 1%, suggesting that the effect on air quality needs to be considered in the context of the wider benefits of urban tree planting, e.g. on physical and mental health. The net benefits of UK vegetation for NO 2 are small, and urban tree planting is even forecast to increase urban NO 2 and NO x concentrations, due to the chemical interaction with changes in BVOC emissions and O 3 , but the details depend on tree species selection. By extrapolation, green infrastructure projects focusing on non-greenspace (roadside trees, green walls, roof-top gardens) would have to be implemented at very large scales to match this effect. Downscaling of the results to micro-interventions solely aimed at pollutant removal suggests that their impact is too limited for their cost–benefit analysis to compare favourably with emission abatement measures. Urban vegetation planting is less effective for lowering pollution than measures to reduce emissions at source. The results highlight interactions that cannot be captured if benefits are quantified via deposition models using prescribed concentrations, and emission damage costs. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Air quality, past present and future’.
Himalayan forests are biodiverse and support the cultural and economic livelihoods of their human communities. They are bounded to the south by the Indo-Gangetic Plain, which has among the highest concentrations of atmospheric ammonia globally. This source of excess nitrogen pushes northwards into the Himalaya, generating concern that Himalayan forests will be impacted. To estimate the extent to which atmospheric nitrogen is impacting Himalayan forests we focussed on lichen epiphytes, which are a well-established bioindicator for atmospheric nitrogen pollution. First, we reviewed published literature describing nitrogen thresholds (critical levels and loads) at which lichen epiphytes are affected, identifying a mean and confidence intervals based on previous research conducted across a diverse set of biogeographic and ecological settings. Second, we used estimates from previously published atmospheric chemistry models (EMEP-WRF and UKCA-CLASSIC) projected to the Himalaya with contrasting spatial resolution and timescales to characterise model variability. Comparing the lichen epiphyte critical levels and loads with the atmospheric chemistry model projections, we created preliminary estimates of the extent to which Himalayan forests are impacted by excess nitrogen; this equated to c. 80–85% and c. 95–98% with respect to ammonia and total nitrogen deposition, respectively. Recognising that lichens are one of the most sensitive bioindicators for atmospheric nitrogen pollution, our new synthesis of previous studies on this topic generated concern that most Himalayan forests are at risk from excess nitrogen. This is a desk-based study that now requires verification through biological surveillance, for which we provide key recommendations.
Ammonia and ammonium have received less attention than other forms of air pollution, with limited progress in controlling emissions at UK, European and global scales. By contrast, these compounds have been of significant past interest to science and society, the recollection of which can inform future strategies. Sal ammoniac (nūshādir, nao sha) is found to have been extremely valuable in long-distance trade (ca AD 600-1150) from Egypt and China, where 6-8 kg N could purchase a human life, while air pollution associated with nūshādir collection was attributed to this nitrogen form. Ammonia was one of the keys to alchemy-seen as an early experimental mesocosm to understand the world-and later became of interest as 'alkaline air' within the eighteenth century development of pneumatic chemistry. The same economic, chemical and environmental properties are found to make ammonia and ammonium of huge relevance today. Successful control of acidifying SO2 and NOx emissions leaves atmospheric NH3 in excess in many areas, contributing to particulate matter (PM2.5) formation, while leading to a new significance of alkaline air, with adverse impacts on natural ecosystems. Investigations of epiphytic lichens and bog ecosystems show how the alkalinity effect of NH3 may explain its having three to five times the adverse effect of ammonium and nitrate, respectively. It is concluded that future air pollution policy should no longer neglect ammonia. Progress is likely to be mobilized by emphasizing the lost economic value of global N emissions ($200 billion yr-1), as part of developing the circular economy for sustainable nitrogen management. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.
Abstract. The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, estimated to be 193 Tg N yr−1 in 2010 which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current trajectories, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr−1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion related emissions implemented. Some N cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr−1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr−1 in 2100 assuming a change in surface temperature of 5 °C even in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 132 Tg N yr−1. Another major change is the effect of changes in aerosol composition combined with changes in temperature. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10 and human health effects globally as well as eutrophication and climate effects. The volatility of NH4NO3 and rapid dry deposition of the vapour phase dissociation products, HNO3 and NH3, is estimated to be reducing the transport distances, deposition footprints and inter-country exchange of Nr in these regions. There have been important policy initiatives on components of the global N cycle. For the most part they have been regional or country-based and have delivered substantial reductions of inputs of Nr to sensitive soils, waters and the atmosphere. However, considering the magnitude of global Nr use, potential future increases, and the very large leakage of Nr in many forms to soils, waters and the atmosphere, there is a very long way to go before evidence for recovery from the effects of Nr deposition on sensitive ecosystems, or a decline in N2O emissions to the global atmosphere are likely to be detected. Such changes would require substantial improvements in nitrogen use efficiency across the global economy combined with optimisation of transport and food consumption patterns. This would allow reductions in Nr use, inputs to the atmosphere and deposition to sensitive ecosystems. Such changes would offer substantial economic and environmental co-benefits which could help motivate the necessary actions.
Abstract Climate model output has progressively increased in size over the past decades and is expected to continue to rise in the future. Consequently, the research time expended by Early Career Researchers (ECRs) on data‐intensive activities is displacing the time spent in fostering novel scientific ideas and expanding the frontiers of climate sciences. Here, we highlight an urgent need for a better balance between data‐intensive and foundational climate science activities, more open‐ended research opportunities that reinforce the scientific freedom of the ECRs, and strong coordinated action to provide infrastructure and resources to the ECRs working in under‐resourced environments.
Microarrays have enabled the determination of how thousands of genes are expressed to coordinate function within single organisms. Yet applications to natural or engineered communities where different organisms interact to produce complex properties are hampered by theoretical and technological limitations. Here we describe a general method to accurately identify low-abundant targets in systems containing complex mixtures of homologous targets. We combined an analytical predictor of nonspecific probe-target interactions (cross-hybridization) with an optimization algorithm that iteratively deconvolutes true probe-target signal from raw signal affected by spurious contributions (cross-hybridization, noise, background, and unequal specific hybridization response). The method was capable of quantifying, with unprecedented specificity and accuracy, ribosomal RNA (rRNA) sequences in artificial and natural communities. Controlled experiments with spiked rRNA into artificial and natural communities demonstrated the accuracy of identification and quantitative behavior over different concentration ranges. Finally, we illustrated the power of this methodology for accurate detection of low-abundant targets in natural communities. We accurately identified Vibrio taxa in coastal marine samples at their natural concentrations (<0.05% of total bacteria), despite the high potential for cross-hybridization by hundreds of different coexisting rRNAs, suggesting this methodology should be expandable to any microarray platform and system requiring accurate identification of low-abundant targets amid pools of similar sequences.
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