Hui Su

University of Hong Kong

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Jonathan H. Jiang

California Institute of Technology

104

Longtao Wu

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

J. David Neelin

University of California, Los Angeles

Monika Korte

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Suzana J. Camargo

Columbia University

A. J. Dombard

University of Illinois Chicago

L. M. Flesch

Purdue University West Lafayette

G. Lu

Jiangnan University

Daoyuan Sun

University of Science and Technology of China

W. G. Read

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

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John Wiley & Sons (United States)

305

Charles River Laboratories (Netherlands)

286

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

172

California Institute of Technology

152

Chinese Academy of Sciences

101

University of California, Los Angeles

Goddard Space Flight Center

University of Colorado Boulder

Planetary Science Institute

Space Science Institute

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The upward branch of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation quantified by tropical stratospheric water vapor and carbon monoxide measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (2016)

K. Minschwaner Hui Su Jonathan H. Jiang

Abstract The vertical distributions of water vapor (H 2 O) and carbon monoxide (CO) in the tropical lower stratosphere are controlled largely by their mixing ratios near the tropopause and by ascending motions as part of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC). The upward propagation of seasonal variations imprinted on H 2 O and CO vertical profiles, often referred to as the tropical “tape recorder,” can be used to derive the mean vertical velocity, , in this region of the lower stratosphere where quasi‐horizontal mixing is not strong enough to erase the seasonal tape recorder signals. We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations of the tropical tape recorders from 2004 to 2014 to derive values of at pressures between 90 and 16 hPa (about 18 to 28 km altitude). Mean vertical profiles of are consistent with calculated velocities derived from net radiative heating rates based on observed temperature, humidity, cloud, and trace gas amounts. Temporal variations in are dominated by a quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and seasonal cycles, with maximum upwelling coinciding with easterly phases of the QBO in zonal wind shear and during the November–December period of the seasonal cycle. Both the QBO and annual modes emphasize the importance of wave phenomena in modulating the strength of tropical upwelling in the BDC. Interannual anomalies in are correlated with variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with enhanced stratospheric upwelling during El Niño phases and reduced upwelling during La Niña. A small decreasing linear trend (~6%/decade) in is observed from 2005 to 2014, although confidence is low in identifying such a trend as part of a long‐term change due to the influence of ENSO over this period.

Microwave Limb Sounder

Quasi-biennial oscillation

Tropopause

10.1002/2015jd023961

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Citations (17)

Aerosol Effects on the Stratospheric Water Vapor

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2012)

Hui Su Jonathan H. Jiang Jiewen Shen Xuexian Liu Ming Yang

Source

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Citations (0)

Decadal Variability of Clouds and Comparison with Climate Model Simulations

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2014)

Hui Su T. J. Shen Jonathan H. Jiang Yuk L. Yung

Source

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Extended seasonal prediction of spring precipitation over the Upper Colorado River Basin

Climate Dynamics (2022)

Siyu Zhao Rong Fu Michael L. Anderson Sudip Chakraborty Jonathan H. Jiang

This study provides extended seasonal predictions for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) precipitation in boreal spring using an artificial neural network (ANN) model and a stepwise linear regression model, respectively. Sea surface temperature (SST) predictors are developed taking advantage of the correlation between the precipitation and SST over three ocean basins. The extratropical North Pacific has a higher correlation with the UCRB spring precipitation than the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. For the ANN model, the Pearson correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted precipitation exceeds 0.45 (p-value < 0.01) for a lead time of 12 months. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is below 20% and the Heidke skill score (HSS) is above 50%. Such long-lead prediction skill is probably due to the UCRB soil moisture bridging the SST and precipitation. The stepwise linear regression model shows similar prediction skills to those of ANN. Both models show prediction skills superior to those of an autoregression model (correlation < 0.10) that represents the baseline prediction skill and those of three of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast models. The three NMME models exhibit different skills in predicting the precipitation, with the best skills of the correlation ~ 0.40, MAPE < 25%, and HSS > 40% for lead times less than 8 months. This study highlights the advantage of oceanic climate signals in extended seasonal predictions for the UCRB spring precipitation and supports the improvement of the UCRB streamflow prediction and related water resource decisions.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-022-06422-x.

Extratropical cyclone

Stepwise regression

10.1007/s00382-022-06422-x

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Real-Time Operational Trial of Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Model for Selected Tropical Cyclones in 2024

Atmosphere (2024)

Sin-you Lai Pak Wai Chan Yuheng He Shuyi S. Chen Brandon W. Kerns

An atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled regional model, the UWIN-CM, began its operational trial in real time at the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) in the second half of 2024. Its performance in the analysis of three selected tropical cyclones, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon, Super Typhoon Gaemi, and Super Typhoon Yagi, are studied in this paper. The forecast track and intensity of the tropical cyclones were verified against the operational analysis. It is shown that the track error of the UWIN-CM was lower than other regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in operation at the HKO, with a reduction in mean direct positional error of up to 50% for the first 48 forecast hours. For cyclone intensity, the performance of the UWIN-CM was the best out of the available global and regional models at HKO for Yagi at forecast hours T + 36 to T + 84 h. The model captured the rapid intensification of Yagi over the SCS with a lead time of 24 h or more. The forecast winds were compared with the in situ measurements of buoy and with the wind field analysis obtained from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). The correlation of forecast winds with measurements from buoy and SAR ranged between 65–95% and 50–70%, respectively. The model was found to perform generally satisfactorily in the above comparisons.

10.3390/atmos15121509

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How do the water vapor and carbon monoxide “tape recorders” start near the tropical tropopause?

Geophysical Research Letters (2007)

Chuntao Liu Ed Zipser Tim Garrett Jonathan H. Jiang Hui Su

This paper evaluates geo‐seasonal relationships in tropical deep convection using radar and infrared data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), near tropopause thin clouds from Stratospheric Air and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II, water vapor and carbon monoxide (CO) from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and the tropopause temperature from National Center of Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. Geo‐seasonal variations in MLS water vapor at 146 hPa and 100 hPa are negatively correlated, which points to dehydration at the tropical tropopause. Water vapor at 146 hPa is highly correlated with tropical deep convection and thin clouds, but at 100 hPa it is more highly correlated with the tropopause temperature. There is a high correlation between the geo‐seasonal variations of 14–16 km thin cloud and cold clouds from deep convection. However, at 16–18 km, thin clouds are highly correlated with the tropopause temperature as well as with deep convection. There is a semi‐annual cycle in CO concentrations at 100 hPa and 146 hPa. The variability is consistent with the convolved seasonal variation of deep convection and surface biomass burning. The annual cycle of water vapor at 100 hPa correlates with the seasonal variability of “freezing and drying” between 146 hPa and 100 hPa, which in turn correlates with changes in tropopause temperature associated with deep convective lifting or large scale ascent.

Tropopause

Microwave Limb Sounder

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

Deep convection

Water cycle

Hadley cell

10.1029/2006gl029234

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Citations (46)

Evaluation of CMIP5 simulated clouds and TOA radiation budgets using NASA satellite observations

Climate Dynamics (2014)

Erica K. Dolinar Xiquan Dong Baike Xi Jonathan H. Jiang Hui Su

Longwave

Outgoing longwave radiation

Cloud fraction

10.1007/s00382-014-2158-9

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Citations (100)

Applying Satellite Observations of Tropical Cyclone Internal Structures to Rapid Intensification Forecast With Machine Learning

Geophysical Research Letters (2020)

Hui Su Longtao Wu Jonathan H. Jiang Raksha Pai Alex X. Liu

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is controlled by both environmental conditions and internal storm processes. We show that TC 24‐hr subsequent intensity change (DV24) is linearly correlated with the departures in satellite observations of inner‐core precipitation, ice water content, and outflow temperature from respective threshold values corresponding to neutral TCs of nearly constant intensity. The threshold values vary linearly with TC intensity. Using machine learning with the inner‐core precipitation and the predictors currently employed at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for probabilistic rapid intensification (RI) forecast guidance, our model outperforms the NHC operational RI consensus in terms of the Peirce Skill Score for RI in the Atlantic basin during 2009–2014 by 37%, 12%, and 138% for DV24 ≥ 25, 30, and 35 kt, respectively. Our probability of detection is 40%, 60%, and 200% higher than the operational RI consensus, while the false alarm ratio is only 4%, 7%, and 6% higher.

Intensity

Outflow

10.1029/2020gl089102

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Citations (62)

Light absorption and radiative effects of char-EC and soot-EC aerosols in mountainous environment during summertime

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2023)

Huikun Liu Qiyuan Wang Yao Qu Jie Tian Li Li

10.5281/zenodo.8307677

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