Didac Fortuny

Universitat de Barcelona

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Brant Liebmann

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

Ileana Bladé

Universitat de Barcelona

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute

Sergi González

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

G. van Oldenborgh

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Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

Universitat de Barcelona

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

University of Colorado Boulder

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Physical Sciences (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

University of Colorado System

University of California, Santa Barbara

Universidade de São Paulo

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How robust is the recent cooling trend in the Antarctic Peninsula? [Dataset]

Sergi González Didac Fortuny

Peninsula

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How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula?

Antarctic Science (2018)

Sergi González Didac Fortuny

Abstract The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability in the region it is not easy to assess whether recent cooling trends are consistent with the internal variability or not. For this reason, this paper assesses the robustness of the trends by analysing their sensitivity with respect to the period selected. Every possible temperature trend in the interval 1958–2016 has been calculated and displayed in a two-dimensional parameter diagram. The results suggest that the warming observed in the Antarctic Peninsula since 1958 is quite robust, as all periods longer than 30 years exhibit statistically significant changes, especially in summer (with lower magnitude and higher significance) and autumn and winter (with larger magnitude and lower significance). Periods shorter than 30 years exhibit alternations of warming and cooling periods, and therefore do not represent robust trends even if they are statistically significant. Consequently, the recent 20-year cooling trend cannot be considered at the moment as evidence of a shift in the overall sign of the trend.

Peninsula

10.1017/s0954102018000251

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The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (2012)

Ileana Bladé Didac Fortuny Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Brant Liebmann

This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro‐Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper‐level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections.

Trough (economics)

10.1029/2012jd017816

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Systematic model errors in the simulation of the summer NAO teleconnection: implications for projected summer drying in the European/Mediterranean region

AGUSM (2013)

Ileana Bladé Brant Liebmann G. van Oldenborgh Didac Fortuny

Teleconnection

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Observed and simulated impacts of the summer NAO in Europe: implications for projected drying in the Mediterranean region