Robert Burgman

Florida International University

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Amy Clement

University of Miami

Ben P. Kirtman

University of Miami

Richard Seager

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Joel R. Norris

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Paul S. Schopf

George Mason University

Ed Hawkins

National Centre for Atmospheric Science

Heather Vazquez

Florida International University

C. Mitas

Risk Management Solutions (United Kingdom)

Arun Kumar

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

J. Chen

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center

Cooperative Institutions

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Columbia University

University of Colorado Boulder

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

University of Miami

George Mason University

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Goddard Space Flight Center

Institute of Global Environment and Society

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How weather impacts the forced climate response

Climate Dynamics (2011)

Ben P. Kirtman Edwin K. Schneider David M. Straus Dughong Min Robert Burgman

Forcing (mathematics)

Geopotential height

Ensemble forecasting

Geopotential

Realization (probability)

10.1007/s00382-011-1084-3

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Citations (19)

Role of tropical Pacific SSTs in global medieval hydroclimate: A modeling study

Geophysical Research Letters (2010)

Robert Burgman Richard Seager Amy Clement Celine Herweijer

The role of tropical Pacific SSTs in driving global medieval hydroclimate is assessed. Using fossil coral records from Palmyra Atoll, tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions are derived for the period 1320–1462 A.D. These boundary conditions consist of La Niña‐like mean state conditions in the tropical Pacific with inter‐annual and decadal variability about that altered state. The reconstructed SSTs in the tropical Pacific are used to force a 16 member ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, coupled to a one layer ocean model outside of the tropical Pacific. The AGCM simulations of medieval climate are compared with modern climate simulations for the period 1856–2005 A.D. and are shown to reproduce many aspects of medieval hydroclimate found in paleo‐proxy records for much of the Western Hemisphere, northern Eurasia, and the northern tropics. These results suggest that many features of global medieval hydroclimate changes can be explained by changes in tropical Pacific SSTs, though the potential role for other oceans is also discussed.

Tropical Atlantic

Tropical climate

10.1029/2009gl042239

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Citations (33)

Observational and model evidence for positive low-level cloud feedback (Invited)

AGUFM (2009)

Amy Clement Robert Burgman Joel R. Norris

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Citations (0)

Atmospheric Amplification of Pacific Decadal Variability

AGU Spring Meeting Abstracts (2007)

Amy Clement Robert Burgman J. Chen

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The Role of Tropical Pacific SSTs in Global Medieval Hydroclimate: A modeling study

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (2008)

Amy Clement Robert Burgman Richard Seager

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Citations (1)

A Simple Mechanism for ENSO Residuals and Asymmetry

Journal of Climate (2006)

Paul S. Schopf Robert Burgman

Abstract A simple mechanism is offered that accounts for a change in the long-term (decadal scale) mean of ocean temperatures as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude changes. It is intended as an illustration of a kinematic effect of oscillating a nonlinear temperature profile with finite-amplitude excursions that will cause the Eulerian time mean temperature to rise (fall) where the curvature of the temperature is positive (negative) as the amplitude of the oscillations increases. This mechanism is found to be able to mimic observed changes in the mean sea surface temperatures in the Pacific between the 1920s, 1960s, and 1990s due to the changing ENSO amplitude. The effects alter both the calculated mean surface temperatures and the time mean temperatures at depth. It also results in a skewness of the temperature distribution that shares many properties with the observed SST. In this model, the time-local gradients of temperature never change if referenced to a single isotherm (i.e., the Lagrangian description is one of DT/Dt = 0). This implies that changes in the amplitude of ENSO will have no influence on the stability of the underlying system, and that the simple Eulerian decadal mean temperature structure has no predictive value. This is in direct contrast to recent work that ascribes a change in ENSO statistics as due to a change in the background state.

Oscillation (cell signaling)

10.1175/jcli3765.1

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Citations (92)

Medieval hydroclimate revisited

PAGES news (2011)

Richard Seager Robert Burgman

Can the global pattern of Medieval hydroclimate be explained by a persistent La Niña-like state and a persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and, if so, why did this happen?

10.22498/pages.19.1.10

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Citations (11)

Evaluating Changes to Natural Variability in the Ocean on a Warmer Globe in CMIP5 models

AGUFM (2017)

Heriberto J. Vázquez Robert Burgman

Globe

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Response to Comment on “Observational and Model Evidence for Positive Low-Level Cloud Feedback”

Science (2010)

Amy Clement Robert Burgman Joel R. Norris

Broccoli and Klein argue for additional diagnostics to better assess the simulation of cloud feedbacks in climate models. We agree, and here provide additional analysis of two climate models that reveals where model deficiencies in cloud simulation in the Northeast Pacific may occur. Cloud diagnostics from the forthcoming Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 should make such additional analyses possible for a large number of climate models.

Cloud feedback

Climate system

10.1126/science.1187667

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Citations (6)

Spatial variability and relative influence of seasonal rainfall drivers in Ethiopia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2025)

Ethiopia Bisrat Zeleke Assefa M. Melesse Ping Zhu Robert Burgman Daniel Gann

Seasonality

10.1007/s00704-025-05368-4

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Citations (0)