Michael B. Bonsall

University of Oxford

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Alex D. Rogers

University of Oxford

Angelika Brandt

Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt/M

Graham J. Bird

Whakauae Research (New Zealand)

Oliver S. Ashford

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Andrew Kenny

Stellenbosch University

Sarah Gerken

University of Alaska Anchorage

Tammy Horton

National Oceanography Centre

Christopher R. S. Barrio Froján

University of Southampton

Elizabeth S. Jeffers

The University of Kansas Cancer Center

Sandrine Pavoine

Centre d'Écologie et des Sciences de la Conservation

Cooperative Institutions

University of Oxford

Ministério da Saúde

Instituto Evandro Chagas

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Imperial College London

Universidade de São Paulo

University of California, Los Angeles

Universidade do Estado do Pará

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz

Secretaria da Saúde

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Optimal control approaches for combining medicines and mosquito control in tackling dengue

Royal Society Open Science (2020)

Thomas Rawson Kym E. Wilkins Michael B. Bonsall

Dengue is a debilitating and devastating viral infection spread by mosquito vectors, and over half the world's population currently live at risk of dengue (and other flavivirus) infections. Here, we use an integrated epidemiological and vector ecology framework to predict optimal approaches for tackling dengue. Our aim is to investigate how vector control and/or vaccination strategies can be best combined and implemented for dengue disease control on small networks, and whether these optimal strategies differ under different circumstances. We show that a combination of vaccination programmes and the release of genetically modified self-limiting mosquitoes (comparable to sterile insect approaches) is always considered the most beneficial strategy for reducing the number of infected individuals, owing to both methods having differing impacts on the underlying disease dynamics. Additionally, depending on the impact of human movement on the disease dynamics, the optimal way to combat the spread of dengue is to focus prevention efforts on large population centres. Using mathematical frameworks, such as optimal control, are essential in developing predictive management and mitigation strategies for dengue disease control.

Dengue vaccine

Mosquito control

Limiting

10.1098/rsos.181843

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Citations (9)

Supplementary Material Ashford et al. 'Phylogenetic and functional evidence suggests that deep-ocean ecosystems are highly sensitive to environmental change and direct human disturbance'

Figshare (2018)

Oliver S. Ashford Andrew Kenny Christopher R. S. Barrio Froján Michael B. Bonsall Tammy Horton

Supplementary Materials for Ashford et al. 'Phylogenetic and functional evidence that deep-ocean ecosystems are highly sensitive to environmental change and direct human disturbance' Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2018.0923

10.6084/m9.figshare.5858592

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Dataset 4A from Phylogenetic and functional evidence suggests that deep-ocean ecosystems are highly sensitive to environmental change and direct human disturbance.

Figshare (2018)

Oliver S. Ashford Andrew Kenny Christopher R. S. Barrio Froján Michael B. Bonsall Tammy Horton

‘Newick’ format file describing the presented supertree of Peracarida.

Environmental change

10.6084/m9.figshare.6820634

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Environmental change and connectivity drive coral reef fish abundance in the Western Indian Ocean

ICES Journal of Marine Science (2024)

Laura M. Warmuth Stephen Kelly Melita Samoilys Ekaterina Popova Catherine E. I. Head

Abstract Worldwide, coral reefs are facing risk from climate change. The Western Indian Ocean (WIO) harbours about 16% of global coral reefs with highly reef-dependent local communities. Coastal protection and food security depend on effective conservation management, which requires understanding species abundances. Here, we explore how fish group distribution and abundance across the WIO, categorized by their trophic function, are explained by oceanographic connectivity, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll a. We designed a proportional oceanographic connectivity metric describing the relative strength of connectivity between all WIO coral reefs and each survey site. We created statistical models for four trophic groups: grazers and detritivores, herbivorous excavators, corallivores, and primary piscivores across 51 sites in the WIO. We show that SST and chlorophyll a are strong predictors of all trophic fish groups and that the proportional oceanographic connectivity metric improved the model predictions significantly for grazers and detritivores and excavators. For excavators, peak abundances were predicted at medium connectivity, and for grazers and detritivores, at low and medium connectivity, suggesting that larvae dispersal predominates at a local scale. Decision making should include connectivity for efficient conservation area prioritization, for which our proportional oceanographic connectivity metric is a valid and useful parameter.

Environmental change

10.1093/icesjms/fsae125

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The effect of the definition of ‘pandemic’ on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk

Scientific Reports (2021)

Benjamin J. Singer Robin N. Thompson Michael B. Bonsall

In the early stages of an outbreak, the term 'pandemic' can be used to communicate about infectious disease risk, particularly by those who wish to encourage a large-scale public health response. However, the term lacks a widely accepted quantitative definition. We show that, under alternate quantitative definitions of 'pandemic', an epidemiological metapopulation model produces different estimates of the probability of a pandemic. Critically, we show that using different definitions alters the projected effects of key parameters-such as inter-regional travel rates, degree of pre-existing immunity, and heterogeneity in transmission rates between regions-on the risk of a pandemic. Our analysis provides a foundation for understanding the scientific importance of precise language when discussing pandemic risk, illustrating how alternative definitions affect the conclusions of modelling studies. This serves to highlight that those working on pandemic preparedness must remain alert to the variability in the use of the term 'pandemic', and provide specific quantitative definitions when undertaking one of the types of analysis that we show to be sensitive to the pandemic definition.

Pandemic

Preparedness

10.1038/s41598-021-81814-3

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Citations (36)

Population-Level Density Dependence Influences the Origin and Maintenance of Parental Care

PLoS ONE (2016)

Elijah Reyes Patsy Thrasher Michael B. Bonsall Hope Klug

Parental care is a defining feature of animal breeding systems. We now know that both basic life-history characteristics and ecological factors influence the evolution of care. However, relatively little is known about how these factors interact to influence the origin and maintenance of care. Here, we expand upon previous work and explore the relationship between basic life-history characteristics (stage-specific rates of mortality and maturation) and the fitness benefits associated with the origin and the maintenance of parental care for two broad ecological scenarios: the scenario in which egg survival is density dependent and the case in which adult survival is density dependent. Our findings suggest that high offspring need is likely critical in driving the origin, but not the maintenance, of parental care regardless of whether density dependence acts on egg or adult survival. In general, parental care is more likely to result in greater fitness benefits when baseline adult mortality is low if 1) egg survival is density dependent or 2) adult mortality is density dependent and mutant density is relatively high. When density dependence acts on egg mortality, low rates of egg maturation and high egg densities are less likely to lead to strong fitness benefits of care. However, when density dependence acts on adult mortality, high levels of egg maturation and increasing adult densities are less likely to maintain care. Juvenile survival has relatively little, if any, effect on the origin and maintenance of egg-only care. More generally, our results suggest that the evolution of parental care will be influenced by an organism's entire life history characteristics, the stage at which density dependence acts, and whether care is originating or being maintained.

Paternal care

Density dependence

Population density

Vital rates

10.1371/journal.pone.0153839

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A Model Framework to Estimate Impact and Cost of Genetics-Based Sterile Insect Methods for Dengue Vector Control

PLoS ONE (2011)

Nina Alphey Luke Alphey Michael B. Bonsall

Vector-borne diseases impose enormous health and economic burdens and additional methods to control vector populations are clearly needed. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been successful against agricultural pests, but is not in large-scale use for suppressing or eliminating mosquito populations. Genetic RIDL technology (Release of Insects carrying a Dominant Lethal) is a proposed modification that involves releasing insects that are homozygous for a repressible dominant lethal genetic construct rather than being sterilized by irradiation, and could potentially overcome some technical difficulties with the conventional SIT technology. Using the arboviral disease dengue as an example, we combine vector population dynamics and epidemiological models to explore the effect of a program of RIDL releases on disease transmission. We use these to derive a preliminary estimate of the potential cost-effectiveness of vector control by applying estimates of the costs of SIT. We predict that this genetic control strategy could eliminate dengue rapidly from a human community, and at lower expense (approximately US$ 2∼30 per case averted) than the direct and indirect costs of disease (mean US$ 86–190 per case of dengue). The theoretical framework has wider potential use; by appropriately adapting or replacing each component of the framework (entomological, epidemiological, vector control bio-economics and health economics), it could be applied to other vector-borne diseases or vector control strategies and extended to include other health interventions.

Sterile Insect Technique

10.1371/journal.pone.0025384

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Citations (78)

Appendix E. Supplementary results on phylogenetic signal in traits.

Figshare (2016)

Sandrine Pavoine Michel Baguette Virginie M. Stevens Mathew A. Leibold Camille Turlure

Supplementary results on phylogenetic signal in traits.

10.6084/m9.figshare.3560871

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Supporting dataset for: Common mechanisms explain nitrogen-dependent growth of Arctic shrubs over three decades despite heterogeneous trends and declines in soil nitrogen availability

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2021)

Andrew Martin Marc Macias‐Fauria Michael B. Bonsall Bruce C. Forbes Pentti Zetterberg

Supporting dataset required for the analyses undertaken in: Common mechanisms explain nitrogen-dependent growth of Arctic shrubs over three decades despite heterogeneous trends and declines in soil nitrogen availability [accepted for publication in New Phytologist on 20th May 2021].

10.5281/zenodo.4817326

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Predators Reduce Extinction Risk in Noisy Metapopulations

PLoS ONE (2010)

James C. Bull Michael B. Bonsall

Background Spatial structure across fragmented landscapes can enhance regional population persistence by promoting local “rescue effects.” In small, vulnerable populations, where chance or random events between individuals may have disproportionately large effects on species interactions, such local processes are particularly important. However, existing theory often only describes the dynamics of metapopulations at regional scales, neglecting the role of multispecies population dynamics within habitat patches. Findings By coupling analysis across spatial scales we quantified the interaction between local scale population regulation, regional dispersal and noise processes in the dynamics of experimental host-parasitoid metapopulations. We find that increasing community complexity increases negative correlation between local population dynamics. A potential mechanism underpinning this finding was explored using a simple population dynamic model. Conclusions Our results suggest a paradox: parasitism, whilst clearly damaging to hosts at the individual level, reduces extinction risk at the population level.

Metapopulation

Extinction (optical mineralogy)

Local extinction

Spatial heterogeneity

10.1371/journal.pone.0011635

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Citations (3)